CHAPTER 8: Population Estimates and
Population Projection
By:Admasu Markos (MSc in Applied statistics )
Mizan Tepi University
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By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
Population Estimates and Population Projection
Population totals, age-sex composition, marital status distribu
tion and other characteristics can be determined from census.
But, population is changing, and hence statistics from census
are not adequate for most current purposes.
Types of Population Estimates
Population estimates refer to approximations of population fig-
ures obtained by analytical methods.
Estimates are divided into three types on the basis of their time
reference and derivation.
1 Intercensal estimates, which relate to a date intermediate to two
censuses and take the results of these censuses into account.
2 Postcensal estimates, which related to a past or current date
following a census and take that census and possibly earlier
censuses into account, but not latter censuses.
3 Projections, which relate to dates following the last census,
usually future dates, for which no current reports are available. 2/14
By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
Estimates vary in other respects:
Xthe geographic areas of reference,
Xthe segments of the population they distinguish,
Xreferring to either people physically present or usual
residents.
Methods of Population Projection
Population projections are activities aiming at calculating the
future values of a given population.
Projections can be on:
Xthe expected number of retirements form the labor force in
a given period,
Xthe required number of teachers or classrooms, housing
units, medical personnel and facilities, etc.
Two main categories of population projection methods:
Xmathematical methods
Xcomponent method.
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By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
Mathematical Methods of Population Projection
Application of some mathematical formula directly to the
total population from one or more censuses.
The most frequently used methods:
Xlinear function,
Xexponential function,
Xlogistic function.
Linear function
Assumption: the average annual increase occurred during a
recent period will be repeated in the future.
Pt+n = Pt + nX
XPt : Population at year t
Xn:the number of years to project from year t .
XX: the average annual increase.
Pt −P0
X = t (Po is population in the base year). 4/14
By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
Exponential Function
it is assumed that human populations tend to grow exponen-
tially.
Here we can use the general formula for population growth at
a constant rate.
It is expressed as:Pt = P0 e rn ⇒ Pt+n = Pt e rn
Example: A population grew from 619, 380 in 1993 to 751, 740 in
2002. Find a population projection for the year 2019.
Solution:
(a) Using the linear function Pt+n = Pt + nX , the linear:
annual average increase is:
X = Pt −P
t
0 2002 −P1993
= P2002−1993 = 751,740−619,380
9 = 14, 706.7 persons per
year.
XThe number of years between the last census and the year of
projection is: n = 2019 – 2002 = 17 years. Therefore,
Pt+n = Pt + nX ⇒ P2019 = P2002 + nXP2019 = 751, 740 +
17x14, 706.7 = 751, 740 + 250, 013.9 = 1, 001, 753.9 ≈ 1, 001, 754 5/14
By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
(b) Using Exponential function: Pt+n = Pt e nr
.
Logistic Functions
This requires a greater number of observations covering a
longer period.
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By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
It overcomes the drawback in the use of exponential rate, i.e.,
possibility of obtaining extremely large population figures after
a short period.
The population to be projected ,P2 is:
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By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
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By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
Projections used by planners and others are not obtained from
these methods for:
Xthey do not use information on the structure of current
population,
Xthey cannot easily be used to produce breakdowns of
composition of the projected population.
Component Method
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By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
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By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
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By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
Example • FASFR for India (1981) are used
• Assumption: these will remain constant throughout the period of
projection.
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By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
Uses of Population Projection
• As a tool for analyzing the components of growth and sensitivity
of assumptions.
• Raise understandings on the determinants of population change.
• Provide information on possible future scenarios.
• As a rational basis for decision making in the public and private
sectors 13/14
By: Admasu M :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
• Specific uses:
Xto determine the need for new public schools, future water
demands, to select sites for fire stations, etc;
Xto predict demands for products;
Xto anticipate the health care costs of current and retired
employees in business enterprises;
Xto forecast demand for housing, number of people with
disabilities, and number of sentenced criminals.
• Population projections take advantage of two strong points
of demography:
Xaccurate recording of demographic processes over a period of
years;
Xthe momentum that links demographic processes for one time
period with another.
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By: Admasu M. :Demography(Stat3071) @ MTU
