Ayush

Agrawal
Research
Independent Unbiased
Perspective & Insights

Technical Analysis Workshop

Ayush Agrawal | INH000013013
 Ayush

DISCLAIMER
Agrawal
Research
Independent Unbiased
Perspective & Insights

I, Ayush Agrawal, am registered with SEBI as an Individual Research Analyst under the registration number INH000013013, effective from September 14, 2023.
I do not offer any paid research services.
Opinions expressed regarding specific securities in the presentation are not investment advice and shall not be treated as recommendations.
Neither I nor my associates/ employees shall be liable for any losses incurred based on such opinions.
All matter displayed in this content is purely for Illustrative, Knowledge and Informational purposes and shall not be treated as advice or opinion of any kind.
The content presented should not be construed as investment advice.
I nor my employees/associates shall be held liable/responsible in any manner whatsoever for any losses the readers may incur due to acting upon this content.
All information is taken from publicly available sources and data. I make no warranties or guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information
provided, including data such as news, prices, and analysis.
We cannot guarantee the completeness or reliability of the information presented. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and consult with a professional
advisor before making any investment decisions.
In no event shall I be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided by me. I, Ayush Agrawal, expressly disclaim liability
for any direct or consequential losses from reliance on this content.

Registration granted by SEBI and certification from NISM in no way guarantee performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors

Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.

Compliance officer: Ayush Agrawal

Telephone number: +91 9425412028.
E-mail address: [email protected]

Contact Details
[email protected]
First Floor, B.P. Complex, Baldeobagh, Jabalpur, Madhya Pradesh, 482002
+91 9425412028

SEBI Research Analyst No. : INH000013013

BSE Enlistment No. : 5849
 Ayush
Agrawal
Research
Independent Unbiased
Perspective & Insights

Before we Start, Why I do not do a lot os SME & Microcap

Analysis Now
During the last years, while I was doing SME research, I observed a recurring pattern where
some promoters initially present optimistic business outlooks and growth projections, which
tend to generate investor interest and drive up share prices. However, they fail to walk the talk. I
noticed in all this that many retail investors are purchasing shares at elevated valuations and
getting trapped in dreams of finding multibaggers.

Ignoring what we recently saw, in 2018 specifically, around 85% of stocks delivered negative
returns to investors, with dozens of midcap and smallcap stocks falling up to 90% during that
calendar year.

History does not repeat exactly but does rhyme.

 Ayush
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Now, If I start with ₹1 lakh

and invest at 13.99% annual returns for 20 years, the portfolio would grow to ₹13,71,940,
delivering total returns of ₹12,71,940 - essentially multiplying the original investment by 13.72
times.
Year 5: ₹1,92,457 (nearly doubling)
Year 10: ₹3,70,397 (3.7x growth)
Year 15: ₹7,12,855 (7x growth)
Year 20: ₹13,71,940 (13.7x growth)
The tentative CAGR over these 23 years, despite the Harshad Mehta Scam, UTI Mutual Fund
Crisis, Ketan Parekh Scam, Satyam Fraud, NSEL Commodity Scam, PNB-Nirav Modi Fraud,
ILFS Crisis, Adani-Hindenburg Crises, 2008 Global Crisis and 2020 Covid Crisis, has been
13.56%.
Hence, I have chosen to conciously not do research on SMEs and Microcaps at AARD
2.0 and stick with stocks which are leaders from leading sectors.
 Ayush
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 Ayush
Agrawal
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Before we start, my sincere gratitude to

William J. O’Neil, who revolutionised growth investing with CAN SLIM, teaching traders how
to marry fundamentals with chart patterns for explosive stock moves.
Mark Minervini, the U.S. Investing Champion, whose SEPA strategy shows how precise risk
management and timing can turn small accounts into market-winning portfolios.
Jesse Livermore, the legendary speculator whose timeless rules on trends, pivots, and
psychology still guide traders a century later.
Richard Wyckoff, a pioneer of technical analysis who decoded the footprints of “smart
money” through accumulation and distribution.
Stan Weinstein, who brought clarity with his Stage Analysis, helping traders ride powerful
uptrends while avoiding dangerous downtrends.
Julius de Kempenaer, the innovator of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG), making sector
rotation and market leadership instantly visible on one screen.

Today I am a better trader and technical analyst from studying their work
 Ayush
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Risk Management
The 2% Rule: Following it, you will never risk more than 2% of your
portfolio on one trade, and your portfolio risk will be 0.2% if you
always keep a strict Stop Loss.
You can use 21 EMA to trail to protect profits.
 Ayush
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Keep A Trading Journal

Document Everything.
Analyze why a trade worked or failed.
 Ayush
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 Ayush
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Learn To Identify Key Patterns

Cup with Handle
Double Bottom
Flat Base
Inverted Head & Shoulders
Pennant
VCP
No matter the
pattern, the breakout
from pivot on strong
volumes is non
negotiable
 Ayush
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Cup with Handle

U-shaped base with small handle
in upper half of the cup
Pivot: Handle's highest price
Buy Zone: 0–5% above pivot
Wait for the price to clear the
handle high on heavy volume
Use a hard stop 8-10% below
entry to protect capital and
practise 2% rule.
 Ayush
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Double Bottom
W-shaped structure with second
low undercut
Pivot: Middle peak between the
two bottoms
Buy Zone: 0–5% above pivot
Enter on breakout above the
middle peak with volume
confirmation
Use a hard stop 8-10% below
entry to protect capital and
practise 2% rule.
 Ayush
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Flat Base
Tight sideways base
Pivot: Left-side high (first
resistance level in the base)
Buy Zone: 0–5% above pivot
This is the "sniper" setup—buy on
clean breakout above the left-side
high with solid volume.
Use a hard stop 8-10% below
entry to protect capital and
practise 2% rule.
 Ayush
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Inverted Head & Shoulders

Classic triple-bottom reversal
Pivot: Neckline (resistance drawn
connecting interim highs between
shoulders and head)
Buy Zone: 0–5% above the
neckline
This is the "bottom-fishing
reversal" setup—buy on clean
breakout above neckline with
expanding volume.
Use a hard stop 8-10% below
entry to protect capital and
practise 2% rule.
 Ayush
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Pennant
Sharp upward move (flagpole),
then small triangle consolidation
with converging trendlines on
Pivot: Triangle's upper trendline
breakout point
Buy Zone: 0–5% above pivot
Wait for forceful breakout above
the triangle's upper boundary
Use a hard stop 8-10% below
entry to protect capital and
practise 2% rule.
 Ayush
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VCP
Series of tightening price swings—
each pullback smaller than the last
with shrinking volume
Pivot: High of the last (tightest)
contraction
Buy Zone: 0–5% above pivot
Enter on breakout above the last
contraction high
Use a hard stop 8-10% below
entry to protect capital and
practise 2% rule.
 Ayush
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REMEMBER
✅
High Volume Breakout: = Institutional confirmation
Low Volume Breakout: = Might be a retail trap ❌
 Ayush
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Identifying a Breakout Irrespective of Pattern

 Ayush
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Basic Stage 2 Filter - Minervini

Template
Price above SMA50
SMA50 above SMA150
SMA150 above SMA200
At least 25% above lows
Within 75-95% of highs
High Relative Strength

Illustrative Purposes Only

 Ayush
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 Ayush
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Strong SECTORS will lead you

to strong STOCK.
 Ayush
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Strong Stock + Strong Sector = ✅ Lesser Odds of Failure

 Ayush
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How To Identify Sectors Showing Strength

RRG Charts

How To Identify Strong in The Sector

Relative Strength Indicator
 Ayush
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RRG - How It Looks Like

Source - Strike.Money
Illustrative Purposes Only
 Ayush
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RRG - Basics
Think of RRG like a GPS for market leadership - Just like a GPS
shows you your current location and where you're heading, RRG
shows you where each sector or stock stands right now and which
direction it's moving.
RRG uses only two indicators: Relative Strength (how well
something performs vs say CNX500) and Momentum (how fast
that performance is changing).
Instead of reading complicated numbers, you just look at which
colored box (quadrant) your stock or sector sits in.
 Ayush
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RRG - Quadrants
Leading Quadrant: High relative strength and high momentum (top-
right). These sectors are outperforming the benchmark with strong
momentum.
Weakening Quadrant: High relative strength but weakening
momentum (bottom-right). These are losing momentum but may still
be outperforming.
Lagging Quadrant: Low relative strength and low momentum
(bottom-left). These are underperforming with weak momentum.
Improving Quadrant: Low relative strength but improving
momentum (top-left). These show potential recovery and emerging
strength
 Ayush
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RRG - Quadrants
Leading Quadrant: High relative strength and high momentum (top-
right). These sectors are outperforming the benchmark with strong
momentum.
Weakening Quadrant: High relative strength but weakening
momentum (bottom-right). These are losing momentum but may still
be outperforming.
Lagging Quadrant: Low relative strength and low momentum
(bottom-left). These are underperforming with weak momentum.
Improving Quadrant: Low relative strength but improving
momentum (top-left). These show potential recovery and emerging
strength
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RRG - What To Look For

→
Blue to Green Transition (Improving Leading)
Red to Blue Recovery (Lagging → Improving)
→
Yellow to Green U-Turn (Weakening Leading)
Blue Zone Momentum Rating Building
Deep Red lagging sectors far from centre showing momentum
uptick
Sharp Directional Velocity Changes between quadrants within 2-3
weeks
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RRG - RS Momentum
RS-Momentum acts as a speedometer that shows
acceleration/deceleration before you see the actual distance
travelled on the odometer (RS-Ratio)
Just like a car slowing down before it stops, RS-Momentum crosses
above/below 100 before RS-Ratio actually changes its trend
direction
After RS-Momentum improves and stays above 100 for several
weeks, RS-Ratio eventually crosses above 100.
 Ayush
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RRG - Configuration
Benchmark: CNX500
Timeframe: Weekly
Date Range: 5 years
Tail Length: 5-8 weeks
 Ayush
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Relative Strength (RS)

Source - TradingView
Open Source Script made by bharatTrader
 Ayush
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Relative Strength (RS) - What Does It Do?

Measures stock performance vs benchmark - Calculates how well
the stock performs compared to benchmark over a specified period
Visualises relative strength trends - Shows whether the stock is
outperforming (above zero line) or underperforming (below zero
line) the benchmark
123-period is default lookback and NIFTY is Default Benchmark. I
use CNX500 as default benchmark and 63 as lookback period on
DAILY Chart.
I look for companies where there is relative ourperformance
compared to benchmark.
The sweet spot is companies where RS is just coming above
zero line.
 Ayush
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 Ayush
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Quick Scan on Market Smith India

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Illustrative Purposes Only

Source - MarketSmith India
 Ayush
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Basic Filters Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

The MarketSmith Master Score incorporates earnings growth, relative price strength, price-volume
characteristics, industry group relative strength, and other factors to create one easy to use rating of
stocks that share similar characteristics of the most successful stocks in our historical studies. I generally
prefer scores over 75.

The EPS Rating compares a company's earnings per share growth with all other domestically traded
companies in our database. Stocks are rated on a 1 to 99 scale (best), based on a calculation that
combines the company's two most recent quarters of earnings per share growth with its three-year to five-
year annual growth rate. I generally prefer stocks with an EPS rating of 80 or better.

Price Strength = Relative Strength (RS) Rating - The Relative Strength Rating shows which stocks are the
best price performers over the previous 12 months. The performance is then compared with the
performance of all other publicly traded companies in India on a 1 to 99 scale, with 99 being the best. I
generally prefer stocks with an RS Rating of 80 or better.

Illustrative Purposes Only

Source - MarketSmith India
 Ayush
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Basic Filters Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

The Accumulation/Distribution Rating measures the degree to which the market is buying (accumulation)
or selling (distribution) a particular stock over the past 13 weeks. Since stock prices are directly affected
by how many investors are buying or selling it, this rating helps you determine a stock's most likely future
direction. A=Heavy buying, B=Moderate buying, C=Equal amount of buying and selling, D=Moderate
selling, and E=Heavy selling. I generally prefer stocks with an Investor Demand rating of "B" or
better.

The Industry Group Rank measures a stock's industry group performance over the past six months.
History shows that the biggest advances come from quality stocks in the strongest industries. The upward
movement of a whole industry boosts the potential of stocks within the group. This rating grades all 197
Industry Groups from 1 (best) to 197 (worst), so you can focus on the best groups. I generally prefer
stocks with an Industry Group Ranking of 1 to 40.

Illustrative Purposes Only

Source - MarketSmith India
 Ayush
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Basic Filters Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

EPS Growth Rate, 3-5 Year - The average earnings per share growth rate over the last 3-to-5 year period
based on a trailing four-quarter count. The amount of time used for this calculation will consist of at least
three years but no more than five years of positive earnings per share.

Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio - The P/E ratio is computed daily using the most recent closing price and the
latest trailing 12 months of earnings.

Price/Earnings (P/E) Ratio, 5-Year Low/High Range - Represents the lowest and highest Price/Earnings
Ratio range a stock experiences over a period of up to 5 years. A P/E ratio is derived by dividing a closing
price by the summation of the latest four quarters of earnings.

I use the TTM PE to compare to the 5 Year PE High and 5 Year PE Low.

Return on Equity - I prefer companies with ROE upwards of 17%.

Illustrative Purposes Only

Source - MarketSmith India
 Ayush
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Earnings Filter Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

Earnings Per Share Percentage Change - Percentage change in earnings per share compared to the
same interim period of the previous year. Figures in blue represent an increase in earnings from prior year
interim period, whereas figures in magenta indicate a decrease in earnings per share.

Sales, Percentage Change - Percentage change in sales compared to the same interim period of the
previous year. Figures in blue are equal to, or greater than sales from prior year quarter, whereas figures
in magenta indicate a decrease in sales.

Illustrative Purposes Only

Source - MarketSmith India
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 Ayush
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Additional Checks Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

Checking for any Deals, Bulk or Block that have recently happened in the company.
Checking Credit Ratings
Quickly scanning corporate announcements of the company for the last 3 months.
Reading Last Two Con-Call Notes on Screener.

Additionally, I also at times refer to The Wrap by TarH of InvestKaroIndia to do the above

Illustrative Purposes Only

 Ayush
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What I check in Concalls Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

New product launches with pre-orders exceeding expectations

Patent approvals or IP acquisitions in growth segments
R&D breakthroughs mentioned repeatedly by management
Product mix shift towards higher-margin offerings
API or formulation approvals from USFDA/EU regulators
New manufacturing capabilities coming online
Geographic expansion into untapped states or regions
Channel partner additions or distributor network expansion
Export market penetration with new country registrations
Capacity utilisation improvements driving operating leverage
Market share gains in key product categories
Digital transformation initiatives gaining traction

Illustrative Purposes Only

 Ayush
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What I check in Concalls Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

PLI scheme benefits starting to flow through

GST rationalisation providing cost advantages
Import duty protection for domestic manufacturing
Government contracts or tender wins mentioned
Environmental clearances for expansion projects
Regulatory approvals for new business lines
Debt reduction plans with specific timelines
Working capital optimisation initiatives
Raw material cost deflation providing margin relief
Backward integration reducing input costs
Asset monetisation plans for non-core holdings
CAPEX completion driving revenue growth

Illustrative Purposes Only

 Ayush
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What I check in Concalls Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

Joint ventures with global players

Technology transfers or licensing agreements
Acquisition targets in adjacent segments
Divestment of loss-making divisions
Management changes bringing fresh expertise
Board restructuring with independent directors
Order book visibility extending beyond 12 months
Long-term contracts providing revenue certainty
Commodity price trends favoring the business
Seasonal demand patterns showing improvement
Supply chain disruptions benefiting company positioning
ESG initiatives attracting institutional flows

Illustrative Purposes Only

 Ayush
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Screener Setup Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

My screener setup is very simple

Watchlist has P/E, 5Yr Average P/E, ROE and then DuPont.
The quick look ratios are Historical PE, Number os shares, EVEBITDA, EVSales, PEG, PB, Return over 1
Yr, Debt To Equity, Plegded Percentage, Receivables To Sales, CFO To EBITDA, Avg Working Capital
Days, Number of Shareholders increase/ decrease over 1 year and Capital Work in Progress Ratio.

Illustrative Purposes Only

 Ayush
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Chart Plotting Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

On Market Smith India

On my chart, I plot the 21EMA and 63EMA in Moving Average.

I also enable Pattern Recognition, Tight Areas, Key Price Ranges, EPS Line, keep default chart as
Market Smith India Chart.

On TradingView
I use Relative Strength of a Stock Indicator by bharatTrader
I also use Minervini Trend Template Indicator by yogy.frestarahmawan
I also use Moving Average Ribbon Indicator by TradingView and on it plot 21EMA and 63EMA.
I also use Higher High Lower Low - Live Indicator by LonesomeTheBlue
I also use Stage Analysis Indicator by TarH of ‘The Wrap’ Investkaroindia. (This is an invite-only
indicator which is available after subscribing to his service.)

Illustrative Purposes Only

 Ayush
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 Ayush
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Independent Unbiased
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 Ayush
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SUMMING IT ALL TOGETHER

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Subscriptions I Use Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

Screener
The Wrap by TarH of InvestKaroIndia
TradingView
MarketSmith India
StockScans
Strike.Money

Please note that I am not affiliated with any of these platforms in any way. I just
like their platforms, and they help me in getting access to data. Please do not
consider this as a solicitation of an offer to buy any of the above financial
products.
 Ayush
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My Setup - Blueprint Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

I avoid All Companies below Top 750.

No SMEs
RRG Analysis tells me about the leading sectors
RS Filter tells about stocks in the leading sector with high relative strength relative to the benchmark more clearly
I then Filter Out Stocks in Stage 2
Then I do Basic Scuttlebutt on Market Smith
Master Score
EPS Rating
Accumulation/Distribution Rating
Historical EPS Growth Analysis
PE Analysis
ROE Analysis
EPS Growth YoY
Then I use either The Wrap/ Screener to check
Deals, Bulk or Block that have recently happened in the company.
Credit Ratings
Corporate announcements of the company for the last 3 months.
Last Two Con-Call Transcripts.
If happy, keep an eye on breakout above pivot with strong Volume
If I enter, EMA21 is my trailing Stop
I follow a rule of 2% and 10% on all trades
 Ayush
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Summary Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

I have learnt from bitter-sweet experiences to never venture into SME and Microcaps again. Hence, I do not touch anything
below the Top 750 Companies
Sometimes the most powerful strategies are the simplest ones - I don't chase FOMO, I patiently wait for perfect setups to come
to me. I'm wrong in my analysis at times, but every mistake becomes an education that compounds my edge.
I now believe that investing is 20% strategy and 80% psychology.
The 2% Rule with 10% Stop Loss is my trading account's life insurance policy.
My trading journal is my Geeta. I learn never to repeat mistakes just by looking at past trades.
While Market Smith's pattern recognition identifies patterns automatically, I try to manually identify them.
Irrespective of the pattern, for me, entry only makes sense within 0-5% above the pivot point, either on initial breakout or
successful retest. Volume confirmation is non-negotiable.
I treat EMA21 as Laxman Rekha while I am trailing profits.
Since I have learnt to trust this system, it is not giving me sleepless nights.
RRG guides me to strong sectors before I look at individual stocks. RRG analysis reveals which sectors have favourable
relative strength and positive momentum.
Within winning sectors, the RS indicator identifies stocks showing superior relative performance versus the benchmark.
Every potential pick must pass Stage 2 criteria: stock above key moving averages, uptrending price action, and institutional
accumulation patterns. This filters out most of the mediocre setups.
Quick scan of earnings growth, ROE trends, and recent quarterly performance, plus reviewing the last 2-3 months of corporate
announcements, bulk deals, and management commentary from concalls, gives me a bird’s eye view of the business.
With technical, fundamental, and sector analysis aligned, I feel more confident.
And if I'm wrong? The 2% rule + 10% stop loss ensures I live to fight another day.
 Ayush
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Illustration Independent Unbiased

Perspective & Insights

Illustrative Purposes Only. Not a solicitation of an offer to buy/ sell