Fixed Income
Fixed Income
• Mua Trái phiếu è Là hình thức cho bên bán trái phiếu vay và nhận lãi định kỳ • Đơn vị phân phối trái phiếu (Investment bank)
• Trái phiếu chính phủ / doanh nghiệp (Government / Corporate bond) • Đăng ký phát hành với Ủy ban chứng khoán (Registering with securities regulators)
• Lãi suất phát hành (Coupon rate) • Hoa hồng môi giới bán trái phiếu (Commission)
• Kỳ hạn còn lại (Tenor) • Xếp hạng tín nhiệm (Credit rating)
• Tài sản đảm bảo (Collateral) • Trái phiếu kém chất lượng (Junk bonds)
1.2. Bond Maturity: 1.3. Par value: 1.4. Coupon Payments: 1.5. Currencies:
• Maturity date: The date on which the principal • Principal amount that will be repaid at maturity • Coupon rate: Annual percentage of par • Single-currency bond: interest
is to be repaid value that will be paid to bondholders payments and principal payment in
• Premium: Selling more than Par same currency
• Tenor: Time remaining until maturity • Frequency: Annually, semiannual, quarterly,
• Discount: Selling less than Par monthly, … • Dual-currency bond: interest
• Perpetual bonds: Have no maturity date payments in one currency, and
• At par: Selling same as Par • Plain vanilla: Bond with fixed coupon rate principal payment in another currency
• < 1 year : Money market securities
• > 1 year : Capital market securities • Pure discount: Sold at discount to par value • Currency option bond: Option to
choose currency of payments
Issuer Bondholder
(Borrower) (Lender)
Issuer Trading market Currency • Legal information about the issuer • Sovereign Gov bonds: Tax
Bank A SPE
3. Legal, regulatory, and tax effect on the issuance and trading: 3. Legal, regulatory, and tax effect on the issuance and trading:
Ordinary income
Collateral Credit enhancements
• Most often, taxed at the normal rate
Internal External
Types Collateral
• US Municipal governments bonds: tax exempt (nation & that state)
Unsecured bonds / • Overcollateralization • Surety bonds
No collateral
Debenture
• Cash reserve fund • Bank guarantees Capital gains income
Equipment trust
Equipment • Excess spread account • Letter of credit • Taxed at lower rate than ordinary income. Even lower if that is long-term capital gains
certificates
1. How cash flows of fixed-income are structured: 1. How cash flows of fixed-income are structured:
1.1. Fixed – coupon structure: Bond: $1,000 par value, 5% coupon rate, 5 year 1.2. Sinking fund provisions:
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 (…)
Fully amortizing Year 1 2 3 4 5
Payment $231 $231 $231 $231 $231 Principal $20m $20m $20m
Equal periodic payments until maturity, including interest and part of
Principal redeemed
principal. The principal is fully paid off at the last periodic payment remaining
$819 $629 $429 $220 $0
Advantages Disadvantages
Partially amortizing Year 1 2 3 4 5
Payment $195 $195 $195 $195 $195 + $200
Periodic payments until maturity, and last periodic payment include • Reduces the risk of default of issuer • Investors face investment risk
Principal
$855 $703 $544 $376 $0
remaining unamortized principal amount remaining
• Issuer repurchase bonds at below market prices
(with call option)
1. How cash flows of fixed-income are structured: 2. Effect of contingency provisions on timing, cash flows, benefit of participants
1.3. Other Coupon Structures: Contingency provisions (embedded options): actions that may be taken if an event occurs
Contingency
Type of coupon payment Coupon received Notes Description Timing Benefit Yield Others
provision
Homework:
Using BA calculator to find each year: Balance, Principal part, and Interest (Coupon) part of below bond
Public Offerings Typically done with the help of an investment bank (underwriter)
Underwritten offerings
Select underwriter (Investment bank) Investment bank or group of investment
Issuer Investors Investors banks purchase the entire bond issue
Determining funding needs
Best efforts offerings
Structuring the debt security
Investment bank sell the bonds on a
Creating the bond indenture commission basis
Primary Secondary
Naming a bond trustee
market market
Shelf Registration
Registering with securities regulators
Once the issuer has registered with the regulators,
Assessing demand and pricing (Grey market) additional bonds can be issued when needed
Tender offer
Institutional / Qualified investors Issuer Investors
• Repurchase
Characteristic Purpose
• Most Active and most Informative • Funding public projects
• On-the-run
Purpose Purpose
• Financing small businesses • Funding development projects (World Bank)
• Providing mortgage financing • Stabilizing world’s monetary system (IMF)
• Other Gov purposes
Homework:
1. The distinction between investment-grade debt and non-investment-grade debt is best described by differences in:
A. tax status.
B. credit quality.
C. maturity dates.
3. Which type of sovereign bond has the lowest interest rate risk for an investor?
A. Floaters
B. Coupon bonds
C. Discount bonds
1. Types of debt issued by corporations:
Learning 1.1. Commercial Paper:
Objectives Debt feature & Type of issuer
Large creditworthy corporations
1. Types of debt issued by corporations
Debt maturity
2. Short-term funding alternatives available to banks
< 1 year
3. Repurchase agreements (repos)
Purpose
Fund working capital and a temporary source of funds prior to issuing
longer-term debt
Sources of repayment
Company operation ; Re-issue ; bank line of credit
Coupon structure
Pure discount or Add-on yield
5 year 12 year
Coupon structure
Syndicated loan
• Bonds: fixed and floating rate
• Medium-term notes : fixed and floating rate, longer term MTNs are fixed rate
Borrower Lender
B. collateralized loan
C. negotiable certificate of deposit
2. A characteristic of negotiable certificates of deposit is:
A. they are mostly available in small denominations
Fixed-Income : Lecture 3
B. they can be sold in the open market prior to maturity
Bond Valuation and Yield to Maturity
C. a penalty is imposed if the depositor withdraws funds prior to maturity
3. For the issuer, a sinking fund arrangement is most similar to a:
• Reference : Textbook, Reading 41
A. term maturity structure
1. Calculate bond’s price give market discount rate Example: Consider a newly issued 10-year, $1,000 par value, 8% coupon, annual-pay bond. Finding value of
bond if YTM = 8% , YTM = 6% , and YTM = 10%
2. Relationships among bond’s price, market discount
rate, coupon rate, and maturity BA Calculator: N = 10 ; PMT = 80 ; FV = 1,000
Year 0 1 2 3 … 10
• When bond yields decrease, the present value of a bond’s payments, its market value, increase
• When bond yields increase, the present value of a bond’s payments, its market value, decrease
1. Calculate bond’s price give market discount rate: 2. Relationships among bond’s price, YTM, coupon rate, and maturity:
1.2. Calculate the Value of a bond with semiannual coupon payment: 2.1. Price & YTM relationship – Convex shape:
Example: Consider a newly issued 10-year, $1,000 par value, 8% coupon, semiannual-pay bond. Example: 10-year, $1,000 par value,
Finding value of bond if YTM = 6% 8% coupon, annual-pay bond.
YTM YTM YTM YTM YTM YTM YTM • YTM = 10% è PV = $877 è % Price change = …
Discount rate …
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
The percentage decrease in value when the YTM increases by a given amount is
smaller than the increase in value when the YTM decreases by the same amount
2. Relationships among bond’s price, YTM, coupon rate, and maturity: 2. Relationships among bond’s price, YTM, coupon rate, and maturity:
2.2. Price & YTM relationship – Difference in coupon rate : 2.3. Price & YTM relationship – Difference in maturity :
Example: If YTM decreases from 6% to 4%, compare % Price change of two 10-year bonds, $1,000 par Example: If YTM decreases from 6% to 4%, compare % Price change of two bonds that both have $1,000
value, coupon rate equals 7% and 9% respectively. par value, coupon rate 8%, maturity are 10 years and 20 years respectively
Other things equal, the price of a bond with a lower coupon rate is more sensitive Other things equal, the price of a bond with a longer maturity is more sensitive to
to a change in yield than is the price of a bond with a higher coupon rate a change in yield than is the price of a bond with a shorter maturity
2. Relationships among bond’s price, YTM, coupon rate, and maturity: Homework:
Practice again using the BA Calculator for all the previous examples
2.4. Price & Maturity relationship:
Learning
Objectives
1. Spot rates and calculate the price of a bond using
spot rates
Fixed-Income : Lecture 3 (cont.) 2. Full price, accrued interest, and flat price of a bond
Spot rates and Accrued interest 3. Matrix pricing
Annualized rate of return by holding the bond until maturity and reinvesting all
Yield-to-maturity (YTM) :
coupon payments at the same rate
Year 0 1 2 3 … N
Example: Consider a newly issued 3-year, $1,000 par value, 5% coupon, annual-pay bond.
a. Valuing that bond using spot rates: 1-year = 3% , 2-year = 4% , and 3-year = 5%
b. Calculate YTM
2. Full price, accrued interest, and flat price of a bond: 2. Full price, accrued interest, and flat price of a bond (cont.):
Example: A $1,000 par value, 5% coupon bond makes coupon payments on 15 June and 15 December and is
Example: A $1,000 par value, 5% coupon bond makes coupon payments on 15 June and 15 December
trading with a YTM of 4%. The bond is issued on 15 June 2021, purchased and will settle on 21 August 2022
and is trading with a YTM of 4%. The bond is issued on 15 June 2021, and purchased on 15 June 2022
when there will be 4 coupons remaining until maturity. Calculate the full price of the bond using actual days.
when there will be 4 coupons remaining until maturity. Calculate the price of the bond.
T ? days
N = 4 ; PMT = 25 ; FV = 1,000 ; I/Y = 2 è PV = …
PV Last payment ? ( N = 4 ; PMT = 25 ; FV = 1,000 ; I/Y = 2 )
(
Full price ? 𝐹𝑢𝑙𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 = 𝑃𝑉%&'( *&+, -.( ∗ 1 + 𝑟 $
2. Full price, accrued interest, and flat price of a bond (cont.): Example:
Bond C, described in the exhibit below, is sold for settlement on 21 September 2022
• Par value $1,000
• Full price = Dirty price = Invoice price • Annual Coupon 6%
t • Coupon Payment Frequency Semiannual
• Accrued interest = ∗ PMT
T
• Interest Payment Dates 15 April and 15 October
• Flat price = Clean price = Quoted price = Full price – Accrued interest
• Maturity Date 15 October 2024
Purpose: estimating the required yield-to-maturity (or price) of bonds that are currently not traded or 3.2. Benchmark spreads :
infrequently traded, using YTMs of traded bonds that have close credit quality
1. Calculate YTM for varying compounding: 2. Yield measures for fixed-rate, floating-rate & money market instruments:
• Coupon rate
• Yield To Maturity (YTM)
a. N = … ; FV = … ; PMT = … ; PV = … è I/Y = … è YTM = … • Effective Annual Yield
• Current yield
a. N = … ; FV = … ; PMT = … ; PV = … è I/Y = … è YTM = … • Simple yield
• Yield to call ; Yield to worst ; Option adjusted yield
.
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑌𝑇𝑀
BOND 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑦𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 = 1 + −1
𝑛
Example: Calculate Effective Annual Yield of a bond with 10% stated YTM
a. When periodicity of the bond is 2 (pay semiannually)
b. When periodicity of the bond is 4 (pay quarterly)
2.2. Yield measures for fixed-rate bonds: 2.2. Yield measures for fixed-rate bonds:
𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑝𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑎𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 − 𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑎𝑟𝑚𝑜𝑡𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑎 𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑢𝑚 • Yield to first call : Yield to date the bond be called first time
𝑆𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑦𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 =
𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑏𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒
• Yield to first par call : Yield to date the bond be called first time at par value
Definition: The lowest of yield to maturity and the various yield to call
calculations
Definition: The expected yield to maturity of a bond that is adjusted
for an embedded option, such as a call or a put
Calculate yield to worst. PV = Flat price +/- value of the call/put option
2.3. Yield measures for floating-rate note: 2.4. Yield measures for money markets instruments:
• Coupon rate = Reference rate + quoted margin • Bond equivalent yield: money market yield stated on a 365-day add-on yield basis
è Compare the returns of different securities with different payment frequencies
• Required margin (discount margin) : Annualized required rate of return
(discount rate) used to return the FRN to its par value
365 𝐹𝑉 − 𝑃𝑉
𝐵𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑦𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 = ∗
Example: A $100,000 floating rate note is based on a 180-day MRR with a quoted margin of 120 𝐷𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑃𝑉
basis points. On a reset date with 5 years remaining to maturity, the 180-day MRR is quoted as
3.0% (annualized) and the required rate of return (based on the issuer’s current credit rating) is
4.5% (annualized). What is the market value of the floating rate note? 365
𝐵𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑦𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 = ∗ 𝐴𝑑𝑑 𝑜𝑛 𝑦𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑛 360 − 𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
360
2.4. Yield measures for money markets instruments (cont.):
365 𝐹𝑉 − 𝑃𝑉 365
𝐵𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑦𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 = ∗ = ∗ 𝐴𝑑𝑑 𝑜𝑛 𝑦𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑛 360𝑑𝑎𝑦 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟
𝐷𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑃𝑉 360
Example 1: A $1,000 90-day T-bill is priced with an annualized discount of 1.2%. Calculate its market price and
its annualized add-on yield based on a 365-day year (bond equivalent yield)
Fixed-Income : Lecture 5
Yield Curves & Yield Spreads
Example 2: A $1 million negotiable CD with 120 days to maturity is quoted with an add-on yield of 1.4%
based on a 365-day year. Calculate the payment at maturity for this CD and its bond equivalent yield.
• Reference : Textbook, Reading 41
Example 3: A bank deposit for 100 days is quoted with an add-on yield of 1.5% based on a 360-day year.
Calculate the bond equivalent yield.
1. Yield curve on coupon bonds, spot curve, par curve, and forward curve:
Learning
Objectives • Term structure of interest rates : Yields at different maturities (terms) for like securities
• Yield curve on coupon bonds : Curve of YTMs for same coupon rate bonds at various maturities.
1. Compare yield curve on coupon bonds, spot curve, par
curve, and forward curve • Spot rate yield curve (zero curve) : Curve of yields (discount rates) for single payments to be
made in the future (normal, inverted, flat yield curve)
2. Forward rates
• Par bond yield curve (par curve) : Curve of coupon rates that hypothetical bond at each maturity
3. Yield spreads would need to have to be priced at par, constructed from the spot curve
Example : With spot rates of for 1, 2, and 3 year are 1%, 2%, and 3% respectively. Calculate coupon
rate of a 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year annual par bonds. Draw par bond yield curve.
2. Forward rates: 2.2. Forward rates and spot rates relationship:
2.1. What is Forward rate?
Borrowing for 3 years at the 3-year spot rate, or borrowing for 1-year periods
in 3 successive years, should have the same cost
A borrowing/lending rate for a loan to be made at some future date
Loan period
Loan period
Notation:
Now 1 2 3 4 5 6
• 1y1y : Rate for a 1-year loan to be made one year from now Now 1 2 3 4 Now 1 2 3 4
Same cost
𝑆! 𝑆/ 1𝑦1𝑦 2𝑦1𝑦
Now 1 2 3 4 5 6
• 2y1y : Rate for a 1-year loan to be made two years from now
• 3y2y : Rate for a 2-year loan to be made three years from now Now 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 + 𝑆! !
= 1 + 𝑆/ 1 + 1𝑦1𝑦 1 + 2𝑦1𝑦
Example: If the current 1-year spot rate is 2%, the 1-year forward rate one year from today (1y1y) is
Forward yield curve : Curve of forward rates of 1-year loan for each future year
3%, and the 1-year forward rate two years from today (2y1y) is 4%, what is the 3-year spot rate?
2.2. Forward rates and spot rates relationship (cont.): 2.3. Valuing a bond using forward rates:
Example: The current 1-year rate, S1, is 4%, the 1-year forward rate for lending from time = 1
Example: The current 1-year spot rate is 4.5%, 2-year spot rate is 5.3%, and 3-year spot rate is
to time = 2 is 1y1y = 5%, and the 1-year forward rate for lending from time = 2 to time = 3 is
5.7%. Calculate the 1-year forward rate: 2y1y = 6%. Value a 3-year annual-pay bond with a 5% coupon and a par value of $1,000.
1. One year from now
2. Two years from now
Now 1 2 3 4
S 3 = 5.7%
? ? ?
S 2 = 5.3%
0 1 2 3
50 50 1050
𝐵𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = + +
S 1 = 4.5% 1y1y = ? 2y1y = ? 1 + 𝑆/ 1 + 𝑆/ 1 + 1𝑦1𝑦 1 + 𝑆/ 1 + 1𝑦1𝑦 1 + 2𝑦1𝑦
3. Yield spreads: 3. Yield spreads (cont.):
Difference between the yields of two different bonds, quoted in basis points • Z-spread (Zero volatility spread) : Yield spread added to the benchmark spot rates, produces a value
equal to the market price of the bond
Example: The 1-, 2-, and 3-year spot rates on Treasuries are 4.9%, 7.6%, and 10.8%, respectively.
Consider a 3-year, 8% annual coupon corporate bond trading at 89.5
• G-spread : Yield spread relative to government bond (benchmark bond is government bond) Compute the Z-spread of the corporate bond.
• I-spread : Yield spread relative to interpolated interest swap rate (fixed rate in the swap) and same tenor
• Option-adjusted spread (OAS) = Z-spread – call option value + put option value
Homework:
Calculate implied forward rates 2y3y for a loan, given spot rates of:
• 1-year = 3%
• 2-year = 4%
• 3-year = 5%
• 4-year = 7%
• 5-year = 8%
Fixed-Income : Lecture 6
Structure of Mortgage-backed securities
Definition : Financial assets (e.g., mortgages, accounts receivable, or automobile loans) are purchased
by an entity that then issues securities supported by the cash flows from those financial assets Securitization benefits
Asset flow
Bank A
Cash flow Customers
Investors • Reduces intermediation costs
Tradition Securitization
Payments • Increases liquidity of bank’s assets
Mortgage MBS
• Banks can lend more
Bank A Bank A
Investors Investors
Customers Customers
Bank A Entity B • Investor’s legal claim to assets is stronger
Mortgage Mortgage MBS Mortgage • Investors can invest in securities match their preference
Deposit,
Bank debt securities, • Provides diversification and risk reduction
Equity Asset flow
Bank A Bank A Entity B
Mortgage
Loss absorbed
Credit rating
$100 million
Credit risk
S e n i o r Tr a n c h e B
Yield
• Seller / depositor • Special purpose entity / vehicle (SPE / SPV)
• Servicer (not always) • Issuer / trust
S u b o r d i n a t e d Tr a n c h e A $80 million
3.2. Time tranching : Prepayment risk is the uncertainty that the cash flows will be different from
Definition : A loan for which the collateral that underlies the loan is residential real estate
the scheduled cash flows as set forth in the loan agreement because of the
borrowers’ ability to alter payments
Loan-to-value ratio
Total = $410 million
Percentage of the value of the collateral that is loaned to the borrower
+ - Bank A
1 s t Tr a n c h e $200 million Customers
2 n d Tr a n c h e $100 million
repayment
Credit risk
Principal
risk
Maturity
Maturity varies from country to country, ranging from 15 to 100 years
Amortization of Principal
Bank A Bank A
Customers Customers • Fully amortizing : Equal payments, include both interest and a part of principal
Interest Rate
Residential
• Fixed rate : Unchanged over the life of the mortgage
Residential
Mortgage
• Partially amortizing : Payments include some repayment of principal, and unamortized
Mortgage
• Adjustable / Variable rate : Can change based on reference rate or index amount to be paid at the end of the loan period
Bank A • Hybrid : Initial fixed for some period, then adjusted Bank A
• Interest-only mortgage : Periodic payments include interest only, all of principal to be
• Convertible : Initial fixed or adjustable, then can be changed at the option of borrower, paid at the end of the loan period (balloon payment)
to adjustable or fixed
Mortgage 1 Investor 1
Prepayment Provisions
Investor 2
Mortgage 2 Securitized
• Prepayment : A partial or full repayment of principal in excess of the scheduled Pool RMBS
principal repayments …
…
Bank A
Customers • Prepayment penalty : Additional payment that must be made if principal is prepaid Government
Mortgage N related Orgs Agency RMBS Investor N
Conforming loans
Residential (Mortgage pass-
(Meet standards) through securities)
Mortgage
Foreclosure Private
companies
Bank A
Nonconforming loans Nonagency RMBS
• Nonrecourse loans: Lender has no claim against the assets of the borrower except for
the collateral property itself
• Recourse loans : Lender has a claim against the assets of the borrower for the The amount and timing of
shortfall between loan outstanding principal and sale value of the property
Cash flows collected from the Cash flows paid to investors in
collateral pool of mortgages the pass-through securities
Investor 2
Mortgage 2 Securitized Mortgage 2
Pool RMBS Pool
…
… …
Where:
• %P i is the weights of each mortgage value
• X i represents for:
ü Coupon rate for mortgage i when calculating WAC.
ü Remaining number of months for mortgage i when calculating WAM.
• Extension risk : Prepayments will be slower than expected (When interest rate rise)
Mortgage 2 Securitized Securitized
Collateral
• Contraction risk : Prepayments will be faster than expected (When interest rate decline) RMBS CMOs
pool
…
CFs allocated
𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑎𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ
𝑆𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑆𝑀𝑀) = Mortgage N
𝑆𝑐ℎ𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝐸𝑛𝑑. 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑔𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ Tranche 1 Tranche N
Tranche 2 …
Investor 1
Investor 2 Investor N
Public Securities Association Prepayment Benchmark (PSA) is the benchmark for CPR …
• 100 PSA : CPR same as standard benchmark
• > 100 PSA : CPR faster than standard benchmark Redistributed
• < 100 PSA : CPR slower than standard benchmark Prepayment Risk
1.3. Sequential Pay CMO : 1.4. Planned Amortization Class (PAC) CMO :
CMOs CMOs
Coupon rates // The same // Principal payments As scheduled Absorb prepayments (if any)
Definition: MBS not issued by government-related organizations Definition: CMBS are backed by income-producing real estate mortgage
Investor 2
Mortgage 2 Collateral Securitized The borrower fails to make The lender may extend the loan over a
CMBS
pool … the balloon payment period known as the “workout period”
…
ABS Senior Investors A type of financial organization bond that backed by that
tranches organization’s pool of collateral (no SPE created, no securitizing)
RMBS Collateral Securitized
CDOs Mezzanine Investors
pool tranches
CMBS
Residual Mortgage 1 Investor 1
CDS Investors
(Equity)
(Credit Default Swaps) tranches Investor 2
Loan 2 Collateral Covered
pool bonds …
…
Collateral manager buy and sell securities in collateral pool to generate cash to make the Investor N
Mortgage / Loan N
promised payments to investors (instead of rely on interest payments from the collateral pool)
Homework:
1. If a mortgage borrower makes prepayments without penalty to take advantage of falling interest rates, the
lender will most likely experience:
A. extension risk.
B. contraction risk.
C. yield maintenance. Fixed-Income : Lecture 8
2. In the context of mortgage-backed securities, a conditional prepayment rate (CPR) of 8% means that Sources of Returns, Duration
approximately 8% of the outstanding mortgage pool balance at the beginning of the year is expected to be
prepaid:
A. in the current month.
B. by the end of the year. • Reference : Textbook, Reading 43
PV =
Principal payment =
Coupon payment =
Market price risk: Uncertainty about price due to uncertainty about market YTM
Example: 3-year bond, $1,000 par, 6% annual coupon rate, 7% YTM, Sell $995 at the end of year 2
Reinvestment risk: Uncertainty about future reinvestment rate of coupon payments
Year 0 1 2 3 Total
Macaulay duration =
Year 0 1 2 3
𝑴𝒂𝒄𝒂𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒚 𝑫𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
Coupon 4%, YTM 5%, Par $1,000 =
𝟏 + 𝒀𝑻𝑴
CF = PV (YTM 5%) =
PV =
If YTM changes to 6% If YTM changes to 4%
Weight =
PV (YTM 6%) = PV (YTM 4%) =
Macaulay duration =
%∆ 𝒊𝒏 𝑷𝑽 = %∆ 𝒊𝒏 𝑷𝑽 =
𝑴𝒂𝒄𝒂𝒖𝒍𝒂𝒚 𝑫𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏
𝑴𝒐𝒅𝒊𝒇𝒊𝒆𝒅 𝑫𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 = Year 0 1 2 3
𝟏 + 𝒀𝑻𝑴
Coupon 4%, YTM 5%, Par $1,000
Definition: Approximate percentage change in a bond’s price for a 1% change in yield to maturity (YTM)
PV (YTM 5%) = 𝑽 𝟎 =
PV (YTM 4%) = 𝑽 @ =
Semi-annual coupon bond
Learning
Objectives
Fixed-Income : Lecture 9 1. Key rate duration
Interest rate risk and money duration 2. How maturity, coupon, and yield level affect bond’s
interest rate risk
3. Portfolio duration
Definition: Approximate percentage change in bond’s price for a 1% change in spot rate on
Market price risk = Interest rate risk = Duration risk = More/Less sensitivity of bond’s price to yield changes
benchmark yield curve at a specific maturity, holding other spot rates constant
YTM YTM Maturity increase Sensitivity increase Interest rate risk increase
3. Portfolio duration : 4. Money duration & Price Value of Basis Point (PVBP) :
Year 0 1 2 3 … 29 30 Example 1: Calculate the money duration on a coupon date of a $2 million par value bond that has a modified
duration of 7.42 and a full price of 101.31, expressed for the whole bond and per $100 of face value
Bond X 9.8 mil. 10 mil.
100 mil.
Bond Y 9.8 mil.
B. Effective duration
Definition: The change in full price of a bond when the YTM changes by 1bp (0.01%) C. Modified duration
𝑽@ − 𝑽? 2. A bond with exactly nine years remaining until maturity offers a 3% coupon rate with annual coupons. The bond, with a
𝑷𝑽𝑩𝑷 =
𝟐 yield-to-maturity of 5%, is priced at 85.784357 per 100 of par value. The estimated price value of a basis point for the
bond is closest to:
A. 0.0086.
Example: A newly issued, 20-year, 6% annual-pay straight bond is priced at 101.39. Calculate the B. 0.0648.
price value of a basis point for this bond assuming it has a par value of $1 million.
C. 0.1295.
Learning
Objectives
Fixed-Income : Lecture 9 (cont.) 1. Approximate convexity & effective convexity
Convexity and Yield Volatility 2. Bond price sensitivity to yield, given duration &
convexity
• Reference : Textbook, Reading 43 4. Duration & convexity used to estimate price effect of
YTM changes, due to changes in credit spread and
liquidity
Year 0 1 2 3
PV (YTM 5%) = 𝑽 𝟎 =
PV (YTM 6%) = 𝑽 ? =
PV (YTM 4%) = 𝑽 @ =
𝑽@ − 𝑽?
𝑴𝒐𝒅𝒊𝒇𝒊𝒆𝒅 𝑫𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 = =
𝟐 ∗ 𝑽 𝟎 ∗ ∆𝒀𝑻𝑴
𝑨𝒑𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝑷𝑽 𝒀 𝑻𝑴 𝟔% = 𝑷𝑽 𝒀 𝑻𝑴 𝟓% ∗ 𝟏 + 𝑨𝒑𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆 %∆ 𝑷𝑽 =
1. Approximate convexity & effective convexity (cont.) : 1. Approximate convexity & effective convexity (cont.) :
Convexity:
• Measure of the curvature of the price-yield relation Convexity of callable bond Convexity of putable bond
• Adjustment to a duration-based estimate
𝑽 @ + 𝑽 ? − 𝟐𝑽 𝟎 𝑽 @ + 𝑽 ? − 𝟐𝑽 𝟎
𝑨𝒑𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒗𝒆𝒙𝒊𝒕𝒚 = 𝑨𝒑𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒆𝒇𝒇𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒊𝒗𝒆 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒗𝒆𝒙𝒊𝒕𝒚 = 𝟐
∆𝒀𝑻𝑴 𝟐 ∗ 𝑽 𝟎 ∆𝒄𝒖𝒓𝒗𝒆 ∗ 𝑽𝟎
• Longer maturity
• Lower coupon rate
• Lower YTM
• Cash flows more dispersed
2. Bond price sensitivity to yield, given duration & convexity : 3. Bond holding period return, duration & investment horizon relationships :
Example: Year 0 1 2 3
Investment horizon Maturity
Coupon 4%, YTM 5%, Par $1,000 Market price risk > Coupon reinvestment risk
Macaulay duration
𝑽 @ + 𝑽 ? − 𝟐𝑽 𝟎
𝑨𝒑𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒙𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒗𝒆𝒙𝒊𝒕𝒚 = 𝟐
= Investment horizon
∆𝒀𝑻𝑴 ∗ 𝑽𝟎
Market price risk = Coupon reinvestment risk
Macaulay duration
%∆ 𝑷𝑽 𝑭𝒖 𝒍𝒍 =
Investment horizon
𝑷𝑽 𝒀 𝑻𝑴 𝟔% = 𝑷𝑽 𝒀 𝑻𝑴 𝟓% ∗ 𝟏 + %∆ 𝑷𝑽 𝑭𝒖 𝒍𝒍 = Market price risk < Coupon reinvestment risk
Macaulay duration
Learning
Objectives
Fixed-Income : Lecture 10 1. Describe credit risk and credit-related risks
Spread risk refers to the risk of an increase in the yield spread on the bond.
Credit risk is the risk of loss resulting from a borrower’s failure to make full and timely payments of
interest and/or principal.
If a bond becomes riskier, the spread will increase, resulting in an increase
in the required yield on the bond.
Default risk Loss severity
(Default probability) (Loss given default)
A decrease in the bond market value.
This refers to the probability of a This refers to the portion of the bond’s value that an
borrower failing to meet its investor would lose if a default actually occurred.
obligations to make full and timely Loss severity = 1 – The recovery rate
Downgrade risk
payments of principal and interest Where the recovery rate is the percentage of the principal Market liquidity risk
(Credit migration risk)
under the terms of the bond amount plus unpaid interest recovered in the event of
indenture. default. This is the risk that the issuer’s This is the risk that an investor may
creditworthiness may deteriorate have to sell her investment at a
during the term of the bond, causing price lower than its market value
Expected loss is calculated as the probability of default multiplied by loss severity: rating agencies to downgrade the due to insufficient volumes
credit rating of the issue. (liquidity) in the market.
Expected loss = Default probability x Loss given default
Unsecured debt
Holders of unsecured debt
≠
Senior Subordinated
have only a general claim on
Issue rating
the issuer’s assets and cash (Corporate credit rating)
flow. Subordinated
Junior Subordinated
3. Credit ratings and notching: 4. Risk in relying on credit rating agencies:
3.2. Notching :
Mechanism of Notching
Rating agencies adjust credit ratings for specific issues up or down relative to 1. Credit ratings can change over time (Higher credit ratings to be
more stable than lower credit ratings)
the issuer rating
Risks in relying on
For more risky issuers (lower credit ratings)
agency ratings
2. Credit ratings tend to lag the market’s pricing of credit risk
(Prices change more quickly than credit rating assigned)
The probability of default is higher, so the potential A larger
difference in loss from a lower or higher seniority ranking is notching
a bigger consideration in assessing the issue’s credit risk. adjustment 3. Rating agencies may make mistakes (not perfect)
For less risky issuers (higher credit ratings) 4. Some risks are difficult to capture in credit ratings (Litigation
risks, Environmental risks, …)
Capacity Collateral
Ability of the borrower to Quality and value of
make its debt payments on assets that are pledged
time (Industry structure à against the issuer’s debt
Industry fundamentals à obligations Fixed-Income : Lecture 10 (cont.)
Company fundamentals)
Evaluating Credit Quality
4 Cs
3. Special considerations when evaluating credit of high- Broader economic conditions strengthen Broader economic conditions weaken
yield, sovereign, non-sovereign issuers and issues
Sufficient funding availability in financial Insufficient funding availability in
sector financial sector
3. Evaluating credit of high-yield, sovereign, non-sovereign issuers & issues : 3. Evaluating credit of high-yield, sovereign, non-sovereign issuers & issues :
3.1. High yield issuers & issues: 3.1. High yield issuers & issues:
Highly cyclical business Detailed understanding and analysis of the debt structure
economic profile
An assessment of willingness to service debt is particularly important for
1. Institutional effectiveness & political risks
Political &
sovereign debt, as bondholders typically have no legal recourse a national
government is unwilling to meet its debt
2. Economic structure & growth prospects
Credit analysis of sovereign bonds entails an evaluation of the government’s
ability and willingness to service its debt, by assessing the following
Flexibility and
performance
Flexibility and performance profile
profile
2. Fiscal performance, flexibility & debt burden
3. Monetary flexibility
3. Evaluating credit of high-yield, sovereign, non-sovereign issuers & issues : 3. Evaluating credit of high-yield, sovereign, non-sovereign issuers & issues :
3.3. Non-Sovereign issuers & issues: 3.3. Non-Sovereign issuers & issues:
General obligation (GO) bonds are unsecured bonds issued with the full
faith and credit of the issuing non-sovereign government. These bonds are
supported by the taxing authority of the issuer. Revenue bonds, which are issued to finance a specific project, have a higher degree
of risk than GO bonds because they are dependent on a single source of revenue.
Economic factors to assess in evaluating the creditworthiness of GO bonds
include
Employment Analysis of revenue bonds combines analysis of the project, using techniques like
Trends in per capita income and in per capita debt those for analyzing corporate bonds, with analysis of the financing of the project.
Tax base dimensions
Demographics
Net population growth
Ability to attract new jobs
1. A money market security most likely matures in: 4. Loss severity is most accurately defined as the:
A) One year or less. A) Percentage of a bond’s value a bondholder will receive if the issuer defaults.
B) Between 1 and 10 years. B) Amount a bondholder will lose if the issuer defaults.
C) Over 10 years. C) Probability that a bond issuer will default.
2. A bond has a par value of £100 and a coupon rate of 5%. Coupon payments are made semi- 5. How does the price-yield relationship for a callable bond compared to the same relationship for
annually. The periodic interest payment is: an option- free bond? The price-yield relationship is best described as exhibiting:
A) £2.50, paid twice a year. A) She same convexity for both bond types.
B) £5.00, paid once a year. B) Negative convexity for the callable bond and positive convexity for an option-free bond
C) £5.00, paid twice a year. C) Negative convexity at low yields for the callable bond and positive convexity for the option-
free bond.
3. The external credit enhancement that has the least amount of third-party risk is a: 6. Price risk will dominate reinvestment risk when the investor's:
A) Surety bond. A) Duration gap is negative.
B) Letter of credit. B) Investment horizon is less than the bond’s tenor.
C) Cash collateral account. C) Duration gap is positive.
7. A mortgage is most attractive to a lender if the loan: 10. Which of the following is least likely an example of external credit enhancement?:
A) is convertible from fixed-rate to adjustable-rate. A) Bank guarantee.
B) has a prepayment penalty. B) Surety bond.
C) is non-recourse. C) Excess spread.
8. An asset-backed security with a senior/subordinated structure is said to have: 11. A non-callable bond with 18 years remaining maturity has an annual coupon of 7% and a
A) Time tranching. $1,000 par value. The current yield to maturity on the bond is 8%. Using a 50bp change in YTM,
B) Credit tranching. the approximate modified duration of the bond is:
C) Prepayment tranching. A) 8.24.
B) 11.89.
C) 9.63.
9. A bond has a par value of $5,000 and a coupon rate of 8.5% payable semi-annually. The bond is 12. Which of the following is the most appropriate strategy for a fixed income portfolio manager
currently trading at 112.16. What is the dollar amount of the semi-annual coupon payment?: under the anticipation of an economic expansion:
A) $238.33. A) Sell corporate bonds and purchase Treasury bonds.
B) $212.50. B) Purchase corporate bonds and sell Treasury bonds.
C) $425.00. C) Sell lower-rated corporate bonds and buy higher-rated corporate bonds.
13. Expected loss is greatest for a corporate bond with a low: 16. The price of a bond is equal to $101.76 if the term structure of interest rates is flat at 5%. The
A) recovery rate and a high probability of default. following bond prices are given for up and down shifts of the term structure of interest rates. Using
B) loss severity and a high probability of default. the following information what is the approximate percentage price change of the bond using
C) recovery rate and a low probability of default. effective duration and assuming interest rates decrease by 0.5%?
Bond price: $98.46 if term structure of interest rates is flat at 6%
Bond price: $105.56 if term structure of interest rates is flat at 4%
14. Structural subordination is most likely to be a credit rating consideration for: A) 0.0087%.
A) general obligation municipal bonds. B) 1.74%.
B) emerging market sovereign bonds. C) 0.174%.
C) high-yield corporate bonds.
17. Which of the following duration measures is most appropriate if an analyst expects a non-
parallel shift in the yield curve?
A) Effective duration.
15. An annual-pay bond is priced at 101.50. If its yield to maturity decreases 100 basis points, its B) Modified duration.
C) Key rate duration.
price will increase to 105.90. If its yield to maturity increases 100 basis points, its price will
decrease to 97.30. The bond's approximate modified convexity is closest to:
A) 4.2.
B) 0.2.
C) 19.7.
18. An investor purchases a 4-year, 6%, semiannual-pay Treasury note for $9,485. The security 21. A $1,000 par value bond has a modified duration of 5. If the market yield increases by 1% the
has a par value of $10,000. To realize a total return equal to 7.515% (its yield to maturity), all bond's price will:
payments must be reinvested at a return of: A) increase by $50.
A) more than 7.515%. B) decrease by $50.
B) less than 7.515%. C) decrease by $60.
C) 7.515%.
19. Jane Walker has set a 7% yield as the goal for the bond portion of her portfolio. To achieve this 22. Negative effective convexity will most likely be exhibited by a:
goal, she has purchased a 7%, $1,000 par value, 15-year corporate bond at a discount price of A) callable bond at low yields.
93.50. What amount of reinvestment income will she need to earn over this 15-year period to B) putable bond at high yields.
achieve a compound return of 7% on a semiannual basis? C) callable bond at high yields.
A) $459.
B) $574.
C) $624. 23. Which of the following is a limitation of the portfolio duration measure? Portfolio duration only
considers:
20. An investor who buys bonds that have a Macaulay duration less than his investment horizon: A) the market values of the bonds.
A) has a negative duration gap. B) a linear approximation of the actual price-yield function for the portfolio.
B) will benefit from decreasing interest rates. C) a nonparallel shift in the yield curve.
C) is minimizing reinvestment risk.
24. An international bond investor has gathered the following information on a 10-year, annual-pay
U.S. corporate bond: Currently trading at par value ; Annual coupon of 10% ; Estimated price if
rates increase 50 basis points is 96.99% ; Estimated price is rates decrease 50 basis points is
103.14% . The bond's modified duration is closest to:
A) 6.15.
B) 3.14.
C) 6.58.
25. Suppose the 3-year spot rate is 12.1% and the 2-year spot rate is 11.3%. Which of the following
statements concerning forward and spot rates is most accurate? The 1-year:
A) forward rate one year from today is 13.7%.
B) forward rate two years from today is 13.7%.
C) forward rate two years from today is 13.2%.