Market Forecasts and Adoption Trends

Industry analysts predict rapid growth in the AV sector over the next decade. For example, Fortune
Business Insights projects the global AV market will jump from about $1.92 trillion in 2023 to
$13.63 trillion by 2030 (≈32.3% CAGR) 1 . Asia-Pacific (led by China) already dominates – worth
≈$756.9 billion in 2022 2 – and will continue growing fastest. In Europe the AV market is forecast to reach
$47.4 billion by 2030 (≈18% CAGR from 2025) 3 . Goldman Sachs projects the number of robotaxis in the
US to soar from ~1,500 today to ≈35,000 by 2030 (capturing about 8% of U.S. ride-share miles) 4 .
Similarly, autonomous trucks in U.S. fleets are expected to climb from “a handful” today to ≈25,000 by
2030 5 . These figures imply annual robotaxi growth rates on the order of 80–90% (2025–2030) 6 . (By
contrast, markets for personal autonomous cars will likely evolve more slowly: most new cars by 2030 will
have advanced driver-assist (L2/L2+) features rather than full self-driving.)

• Regional differences: China’s 2020 strategic plan set goals for mass production of Level-3 AVs by
2025 7 , and pilot “Level-4” (fully driverless in limited areas) projects are now running in ~20 cities
8 . The EU’s flagship planning foresees cross-border AV testbeds starting in 2026 and harmonized

regulations by 2026 9 , boosting a continental AV market expected to expand strongly. For

comparison, Grand View Research expects Europe’s AV sector to grow to ~$47 billion by 2030 3 (still
modest relative to Asia). In the U.S., regulatory momentum (see below) aims to unify standards and
accelerate deployments.

• Adoption: Early deployments are mostly robotaxis and shuttles. Boston Consulting/WEF estimate
fleets of robotaxis will be operating at scale in 40–80 cities by 2035 (led by China and the US) 10 .
Trucking use-cases will also ramp: the same study forecasts nearly 30% of new U.S. long-haul
trucks on certain routes will be self-driving by 2035 11 . Overall, analysts say the focus is now on “the
pace at which AVs will grow,” not on viability of the tech 12 .

Deployment Statistics and Projections

• Current deployments: A few thousand AVs are already in service. For instance, Waymo’s robotaxi
service operates in parts of Phoenix, the San Francisco Bay Area, LA, Austin, and Atlanta (with
thousands of rides logged) 13 14 . Tesla has begun limited robotaxi tests in Austin (June 2025) 15 .
China has hundreds of Apollo Go robotaxis (e.g. 400+ in Wuhan) and dozens of companies testing
fleets on public roads 16 . Automated freight vehicles are in trials in U.S./China (e.g. shuttling goods
in ports and mines) 17 18 .

• Projections: Beyond market value, quantitative forecasts abound. For example, Goldman Sachs
projects 35,000 US robotaxis by 2030 4 , up from ~1.5K today, generating ~$7 billion in revenue.
They also forecast 25,000 autonomous trucks in US fleets by 2030 5 . WEF/BCG estimates (via
McKinsey) expect robotaxi fleets in ~40–80 cities by 2035 10 , and that AV trucks could be 30% of
US long-haul sales by 2035 11 . These align with other market analyses (e.g. Allied Market Research’s
US forecast of ~30% autonomous trucks by 2035).

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Strategic Plans from Major Companies
Figure: Interior of a Pony.ai autonomous test vehicle (self-driving tech demonstration). Major automakers and
tech firms are actively developing AV services. For example:
- Tesla: Elon Musk announced that unoccupied Teslas will be driving “in the wild” by June 2025 in Austin
19 , as part of a paid robotaxi service. Tesla plans full robotaxi production from 2026 in Texas 20 and is

expanding its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software testing to other states this year 21 . (Note: Tesla vehicles will
need hardware upgrades for true Level-5 autonomy.)
- Waymo (Alphabet): Waymo has steadily grown its robotaxi footprint. In 2025 it launched its first Lyft-
partnered driverless cabs in Nashville 13 , with plans to expand to Miami, Washington D.C., Dallas and
Denver 22 . (Waymo vehicles already serve Phoenix, SF Bay, LA, Austin and Atlanta.) The Nashville fleet
alone is expected to grow to hundreds of vehicles over time 23 . Waymo’s deployment is often cited as a
benchmark for safety: its test vehicles saw ~85% fewer injury-causing crashes than a human-driven
baseline 24 .
- Baidu (Apollo): Baidu’s Apollo Go robotaxis (hundreds on Chinese roads) are expanding internationally.
Baidu has partnered with Chinese rental firm Car Inc to offer driverless car rentals using Apollo vehicles 25 .
It is also reportedly planning European tests: e.g. establishing a base in Switzerland for trials by end-2025,
and deploying Apollo Go in Turkey 26 27 .
- Others: Legacy OEMs and startups are similarly engaged. GM’s Cruise is resuming robotaxi testing in
Phoenix and planning expansion. Uber has launched Waymo AVs in its Atlanta network 13 . China’s other
players (Pony.ai, AutoX, WeRide) are testing fleets in multiple cities. (Many are working with local
governments on public transit pilots and hub-to-hub freight projects.)

Government Policies and Regulatory Roadmaps

Governments worldwide are rapidly updating regulations to accommodate AVs. Key examples include:

• United States: The U.S. federal government (USDOT/NHTSA) has released an updated Automated
Vehicles Framework. In 2025 NHTSA announced three proposed rulemakings to modernize
crash-safety standards for cars with no driver controls 28 (for example, revising requirements for
transmission, defogging, lighting, etc.). The administration is also proposing to exempt certain self-
driving vehicles from outdated requirements such as mirrors 29 . In January 2025 Tesla stated it
would start a “paid autonomous car service” (robotaxis) by mid-year 30 , reflecting close
coordination with regulators. States like California require AV operators to carry multimillion-dollar
insurance bonds (e.g. $5M) 31 .

• European Union: The European Commission’s 2025 mobility plan explicitly targets AV integration. It
will establish large cross-border AV testbeds by 2026 and harmonize regulations for testing and
deployment across member states 9 . The EU aims to allow mass production of automated parking
vehicles (Level 4) by 2025 and begin enabling hub-to-hub freight use cases by 2026 32 9 . Crucially,
the commission will streamline approval procedures for AV road testing under common rules by
2026 9 . The EU also stresses leveraging connected infrastructure: future AV systems must utilize
Europe’s satellite navigation and connectivity systems (Galileo, Copernicus, forthcoming IRIS) for
high-precision positioning and data 33 .

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 • China: China’s multi-ministry guidelines are very supportive of AVs. Its 2020 Intelligent Vehicle
strategy set a national goal of mass-producing Level-3 AVs by 2025 7 . In January 2024, China’s
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) launched pilot “Vehicle-Road-Cloud
Integration” projects in 20 cities to promote unmanned L4 applications (robotaxis and autonomous
freight) 8 . Major cities have enacted local rules: e.g., Beijing (2024) now legally permits high-level
AV testing and limited commercial use, Shenzhen (2022) has full licensing for smart taxis, and
Shanghai’s Pudong zone even issues “fully driverless” licenses with dedicated test roads. China is
also working on national standards: in 2025 MIIT announced plans to mandate “safety requirements
for autonomous driving systems” (e.g. fail-safe, data logging, HMI) in its automotive standards work
34 .

• Other regions: In the UK, the government has delayed legalization of fully driverless cars from 2026
to late 2027 35 . Several U.S. states (over 30) and countries (e.g. UAE, Australia, Japan) have issued AV
road-testing laws or strategies. International bodies (UNECE, ISO) are also developing guidelines for
AV safety and interoperability.

Smart Cities and Connected Infrastructure

AV deployment is closely tied to smart city infrastructure. Cities and transit authorities are beginning to
integrate vehicle-to-everything (V2X) systems, high-precision mapping, 5G/V2X networks, and edge/AI
computing to support AVs. For example, the EU plans “Automated Driving Corridors” and cross-border
testbeds that will incorporate connected traffic signals and road sensors 36 . Future AVs are expected to
rely on continuous data links: EU documents call for vehicle software that uses space-based services
(Galileo, Copernicus) for real-time navigation and secure connectivity 33 . In pilot programs (e.g. U.S. DoT
smart-city grants, China’s 5G-V2X trials), AVs communicate with infrastructure to optimize traffic flow and
safety. Integrating AVs with public transit and shared mobility is also a major focus – for instance, Waymo is
partnering with transit agencies (via Via) to offer robotaxi “first/last mile” shuttles 13 , and projects in
Europe are linking AVs to existing bus and rail networks. Ultimately, planners envision AVs reshaping urban
design: by reducing parking demand and accidents, cities could reallocate road space to pedestrians,
greenways, and densification.

Societal and Economic Impacts

The rise of AVs will have far-reaching impacts on the economy and society:

• Safety: Removing human error has the potential to dramatically cut crashes. Waymo’s data, for
instance, showed its AVs had ~85% fewer injury-related crashes than a human-driven baseline 24 .
Research generally agrees AVs can greatly improve safety, but surveys show many people remain
wary: one Brookings analysis notes AVs “are safer than human drivers,” yet most Americans report
distrust and security concerns 37 .

• Jobs and labor: Automation threatens driving jobs. A study by RethinkX (2024) estimates up to 5
million U.S. driving-related jobs could be lost (including ~3.5M truck drivers and “almost all taxi
drivers”) as AVs mature 38 . Globally, hundreds of thousands of bus, truck, taxi and delivery driver
roles may be displaced, necessitating large-scale workforce retraining. Some new jobs (fleet

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 operators, remote supervisors, software engineers, mobility managers) will be created, and
productivity gains (e.g. $1T added GDP by 2030) could offset income losses 39 . Governments face
pressure to support displaced workers (via safety nets, retraining) as part of AV transition plans 40 .

• Insurance and liability: AVs shift insurance models. When a self-driving car crashes, liability often
shifts from the driver to the manufacturer or tech provider 41 . Insurers are already adapting:
some offer system-centric policies (covering the software/AI stacks) rather than personal driver risk.
In California (a regulatory leader), AV companies must post large insurance bonds (e.g. $5M) to
operate 31 . In the longer run, widespread AVs may reduce per-mile insurance costs (fewer
accidents) even as premiums are recalibrated around product liability.

• Urban design and mobility: Planners foresee AVs transforming cityscapes. Less parking will be
needed if cars can roam or return to depots, freeing up land for housing or parks. AVs could fill
transit gaps, making mobility more accessible. Brookings notes integrating AVs could “create better
spaces for pedestrians,” enable longer commutes to be productive (riders reading or resting while
traveling), and accelerate the decline of private car ownership 37 . However, there are also cautions:
if AVs make travel extremely cheap, they could induce more total miles driven, potentially
worsening sprawl or congestion unless paired with pricing or transit policies. Societally, there are
concerns around equity (ensuring AV benefits reach all communities) and cybersecurity (protecting
vehicles from hacking).

Sources: Academic studies, industry reports (Goldman Sachs, McKinsey, Deloitte, etc.), government and
policy documents (NHTSA, EU Commission, MIIT), and news analysis (Reuters, WEF, Brookings) have been
used to compile these insights 1 4 19 13 36 7 41 38 37 . (All quoted statistics are cited from these
sources.)

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 1 2 Autonomous Vehicle Market Size, Share, Trends | Report [2030]
https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/autonomous-vehicle-market-109045

3 Europe Autonomous Vehicle Market Size & Outlook, 2030

https://www.grandviewresearch.com/horizon/outlook/autonomous-vehicle-market/europe

4 5 6 12 Autonomous Vehicle Market Is Forecast to Grow and Boost Ridesharing Presence | Goldman
Sachs
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/autonomous-vehicle-market-forecast-to-grow-ridesharing-presence

7 8 34 China’s Autonomous Vehicle Regulations | Law.asia

https://law.asia/china-autonomous-vehicle-regulations/

9 32 33 36 transport.ec.europa.eu
https://transport.ec.europa.eu/document/download/89b3143e-09b6-4ae6-a826-932b90ed0816_en

10 11 29 35 When will autonomous vehicles and self-driving cars hit the road? | World Economic Forum
https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/05/autonomous-vehicles-technology-future/

13 14 15 22 23 Waymo to offer autonomous rides in Nashville on Lyft ride-hailing network | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/business/waymo-offer-autonomous-rides-nashville-lyft-ride-hailing-network-2025-09-17/

16 26 27 Baidu prepares to launch driverless taxi in Europe, WSJ reports | Reuters

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/baidu-prepares-launch-driverless-taxi-europe-wsj-reports-2025-05-14/

17 18 Levelling Up: China’s race to an autonomous future

https://assets.kpmg.com/content/dam/kpmg/cn/pdf/en/2022/06/special-report-on-autonomous-driving.pdf

19 20 21 30 Tesla commits to cheaper cars in first half, sees autonomous vehicles 'in the wild' in June |
Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/teslas-fourth-quarter-profit-margin-misses-estimates-2025-01-29/

24 Enhancing cities with autonomous vehicles | Deloitte Insights

https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/government-public-sector-services/autonomous-vehicles-deployment-in-
cities.html

25 China's Car Inc launches self-driving rental service with Baidu's Apollo | Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinas-car-inc-launches-self-driving-rental-service-with-baidus-apollo-2025-07-08/

28 Trump’s Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy Advances AV Framework with Plans to Modernize Safety
Standards | NHTSA
https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/av-framework-plan-modernize-safety-standards

31 41 How autonomous vehicles will change the future of car insurance | S&P Global
https://www.spglobal.com/automotive-insights/en/blogs/2025/08/autonomous-vehicles-future-of-car-insurance

37 How autonomous vehicles could change cities | Brookings

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-autonomous-vehicles-could-change-cities/

38 39 How many jobs will be created by the disruption of transportation? How many jobs will be
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destroyed?
https://www.rethinkx.com/faq-and-mythbusting/how-many-jobs-will-be-created-by-the-disruption-of-transportation-how-many-
jobs-will-be-destroyed