Reimagining Healthcare - Presentation - Final
Reimagining Healthcare - Presentation - Final
A Prescription for
Prosperity
McKinsey Global Institute
July 2020
An economist and a Partner at the A leader of the Firm’s state healthcare practice, Co-leads the Firm’s Center for Societal Benefit
McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), leads focuses on health and human services strategy and through Healthcare, which invests in research
research on health, productivity, special needs populations across U.S. states and and mitigating social determinants of health,
competitiveness, and urbanization payers rural health, maternal health, and behavioral
health – including mental health and
Advises global business and government Collaborates with states and healthcare payers on substance use
leaders on issues related to her areas of healthcare strategy and innovation, with a focus on
research and expertise the Medicaid and long-term care populations Serves clients on optimizing the delivery of
behavioral-health services, improving public
Has authored numerous articles and reports Previously served as a Fellow with McKinsey’s health, and increasing the impact of advocacy
referenced by leading publications, Health Systems Institute in London, where she programs
including “Prioritizing health: A prescription served health systems in Europe, Asia, and
for prosperity” Australia Previously served as Acting Administrator of
the Substance Abuse and Mental Health
Contributes to policy debates and frequently Has authored numerous healthcare-related articles, Services Administration and Chief of Staff to
speaks at industry conferences including “The Medicaid Agency of the Future” the Surgeon General of the United States
+42
72.8
years
Global life
expectancy 30.5
years
80
70
60 Neurological disorders Diabetes and kidney diseases
Substance use disorders
50
Musculoskeletal disorders Vision and hearing loss
40
Skin diseases Chronic respiratory
30
diseases
20 Other NCDs
Digestive diseases Cancers
10
Self-harm/ interpersonal violence Mental disorders Unintentional injuries
0
HIV/AIDS and STIs
-10 Transport injuries Respiratory infections and TB Cardiovascular
-20 Maternal/ Nutritional deficiencies
diseases
neonatal
-30 Tropical diseases and malaria
-40 Other infectious diseases Diarrhea and intestinal infections
-50
Lower likelihood with age Higher likelihood with age
Source: Global Disease Burden Database Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME); University of Washington (this vie w excludes McKinsey & Company 5
"Other non-communicable diseases"); McKinsey Global Institute analysis
How much could we improve What is the potential from
health with interventions we innovation in the visible
know work? pipeline?
Global disease
100%
burden
Remaining unmet
59%
disease burden
1 Based on evidence from Australia. Greenhalgh, Elizabeth, Michelle Scollo, and Margaret Winstanley, Tobacco in Australia: Facts and issues, Cancer Council Victoria, 2020. McKinsey & Company 7
Source: Global Burden of Disease Database 2016 IHME; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
The potential to reduce the disease burden varies significantly by
disease type: Chronic conditions are more challenging to tackle
1. DALY = disability-adjusted life year; list represents all 22 level 2 disease burden according to IHME.
Source: Global Burden of Disease Database 2017 IHME; McKinsey Global Institute disease reduction model McKinsey & Company 8
65 is the
new 55
A 65-year-old in a healthy growth scenario
has the same likelihood to be as healthy as
a 55-year-old in baseline scenario
Prevention and
health promotion
Vaccines 11%
70%
Safe child birth 9%
Medicines for heart 7% 38
disease, stroke
prevention, and diabetes
1. 84% of impact comes from low and lower middle income countries
Source: Global Burden of Disease Database 2017 IHME, McKinsey Global Institute analysis McKinsey & Company 10
40%
of health improvements
could be achieved at
under $100 for each
additional healthy life
year
100000
10000
Almost 60 percent of health gains can be
achieved at under $1,000 for each additional
healthy year
1000 1000
102
10
0
Blood pressure and Behavior change Sight tests and glasses Treatment for Road safety measures
cholesterol reduction 2 to reduce Triptan and other Hearing aids drug use disorders Group-based multi-modal
cardiovascular risk2 medicines for migraine Acute stroke care program for back pain
Diabetes prevention program Smoking cessation
Targeted lung cancer screening
Diabetes medicines and disease management (education, monitoring)
Cumulativ e health improv ement
DALYs averted (millions)1
Note: Interventions are ordered in ascending order of cost for every healthy life year. The higher the disease burden reducti on potential, the larger the width
under each intervention.
1.DALY = disability-adjusted life year.
2.Pharmacological prevention of cardiovascular disease includes use of antihypertensives and statins (and/or other cholesterol -lowering medicines).
Cardiovascular lifestyle education includes physical activity, diet, smoking cessation, and alleviation of other risks. These interventions are delivered as a
combined program.
Sources: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, used with permission, all rights reserved; WHO, “Updated Appendix 3 of the WHO Global NCD Action Plan 2013-2020: Technical
Annex (Version dated 12 April 2017)”, 2017; “Disease Control Priorities 3 (DCP-3): Economic evaluation for Health,” University of Washington Department of Global Health, 2018; Tuf ts
Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
How much could we improve What is the potential from
health with interventions we innovation in the visible
know work? pipeline?
100% 41%
Cardiovascular diseases
15
Mental and
59% neurological
13
16 other disease disorders
groups 49
11
Cancers
7
5
Musculoskeletal
Other non-communicable disorders
Global disease burden Potential disease Remaining diseases
burden reduction disease burden
from healthy
growth scenario
Source: Global Burden of Disease Database IHME; MGI disease reduction model McKinsey & Company 14
Omics and molecular Innovative Vaccines
technologies Cholesterol-lowering
CRISPR and curbing malaria vaccine
Innovations in
the visible
pipeline that
may enter the
Next-generation
market by Pharmaceuticals Advanced Surgical
2040…
Senolytics and regulation Suspended animation for
of cellular aging severe trauma patients
…could further
reduce disease
burden by Robotics and Prosthetics
Exoskeleton suit
6-10%
Tech-enabled for mobility support
care delivery
Multichannel
care delivery
Digital therapeutics
AI-powered app to
enable behavior change
$12 8%
trillion of GDP
0.4 ppt
additional growth
2020–40
A majority of the increase in GDP would come from people
suffering fewer health conditions and expanded participation
$ trillion,1 2040
2.0 153.7
4.1
4.2
1.4
142.0
Base case Fewer early deaths Fewer health Expanded Increase in Potential GDP
GDP 2040 conditions participation1 productivity 2040
Annual
Growth Rate 2.6% 3.0%
2020-2040
1. Includes impact on older adults (only high income and upper middle income), informal caregivers (only in OECD due to data availability), people with disability (global).
Source: Global Burden of Disease Database 2016 IHME; Oxford Economics; ILO Stat; McKinsey Global Institute analysis McKinsey & Company 20
Almost 70% of the healthy life years we estimate are added to those
under 70 where the economic contribution is the highest
Global perspective, healthy growth scenario
Age 0 20 40 60 80
70.7
59.0 63.8 60.1
44.2 43.8 49.2
40.5
34.2
19.8 Additional healthy
life years1, million
0 0.2
0.4 0.7 0.6 GDP impact in 2040,
$ trillion
1.4 1.6 1.6
1.7
3.4
1. Additional healthy life years from averting deaths and reducing disability.
Source: Global Burden of Disease Database 2016 IHME; Oxford Economics; ILO Stat; OECD; EUROSTAT; National Transfer Accounts P roject; McKinsey & Company 21
McKinsey Global Institute model
The economic benefits are driven by differences in the
underlying health outcomes and labor market structures of
countries
GDP Impact breakdown, 2040 Increase in productivity Fewer health conditions
Healthy growth scenario, % and $ trillion Expanded participation Fewer early deaths
39 42 48
33 33
33
29 36
27
11 6 14 10 14 12
5
US & Canada Australasia Western Europe East Asia Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East & South Asia Sub Saharan
& Central Asia North Africa Africa
Source: Global Burden of Disease Database IHME; Oxford Economics; ILO Stat; OECD; EUROSTAT; National Transfer Accounts Projec t; MGI Model McKinsey & Company 22
The
$100 >$3 $20-30
societal trillion trillion billion
benefits
Economic welfare Reduction in the social Incremental value
unlocked through and economic costs of volunteering time
additional years lived of mental health for 65+
are likely
to far 21 230
exceed the
days
65% million
economic Average additional Reduction in child More people
Source: Global Burden of Disease Database 2016 IHME; OECD; The Lancet McKinsey & Company 23
Commission on global mental health and sustainable development; Gallup;
MGI Model
For each $1 invested in improving health, an economic return
of $2 to $4 is possible
Healthy growth Scenario, 2040, USD trillions
3x 2x 4x 2x
Welfare
18.6 41.0 54.2 16.4
gains
Note: Snapshot view of the healthy growth scenario in 2040. Additional healthcare spending, GDP impact and welfare gains directly attributable to better health only (excluding expanded participation)
Source: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, used with permission, all rights reserved; Oxford Economics; ILOSTAT; National Transfer Accounts Projects; WHO, “Updated Appendix 3 of the WHO Global NCD Action plan 2013-2020: Technical annex (version dated McKinsey & Company 24
12 April 2017)”, 2017; “Disease control priorities 3 (DCP-3): Economic Evaluation for Health,” University of Washington Department of Global Health, 2018; Tufts cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
How much could we improve What is the potential from
health with interventions we innovation in the visible
know work? pipeline?
Initial focus areas The Center is a global network of experts, combining McKinsey’s business insights with
leading thinking across five focus areas
Each year, 1 in 5 adults experiences a mental illness, and one in two will
Behavioral Mental experience one at some point in their lives. Those with poor mental health
Health Health are four times more likely to have multiple unmet social needs. As with
Conduct and physical health, racial/ethnic minorities have less access to mental
share pathbreaking
healthcare and are less likely to receive high-quality care when treated.
research in initial
focus areas ~20 million adults have a substance use disorder; more than 130 people
Substance in the United States die every day after overdosing on opioids. Though
opioid use disorder rates are similar across racial groups, there is a 35:1
Partner with Use
Continue
ratio of white patients receiving a buprenorphine Rx vs. patients of another
organizations
to convene to focus on race/ethnicity.
and support Mission achieving One in six Americans – 46 million people – live in rural areas. There is a
multi- tangible significant gap in health between rural and urban Americans, with rural
stakeholder impact Rural Health Americans more likely to die from conditions such as heart disease, cancer,
collaborations and opioid overdoses; disparities in health access and outcomes also exist
by race/ethnicity.
Co-invest with
organizations to launch
Nearly 40% of health outcomes are based on underlying social factors
innovations and share such as economic stability, employment, education, food security, housing,
Social Determinants transportation, social support, and safety. In addition, factors such as race
results so others can
replicate or ethnicity can influence health status and the level of unmet social need.
Over the past two decades, maternal mortality rates in the US have
Maternal Health increased by 50-70%, and rates of severe maternal morbidity have more
than doubled. Pregnancy-related mortality ratios for Black women with at
least a college degree are five times as high as white women with a similar
education.
McKinsey & Company 29
Mental and substance use disorders affect a substantial number of
individuals across the world
worldwide suffer from mental Change in disease burden between 2020 and 2040 globally,
and substance use disorders, % change in disease burden measured in DALY 2
including more than 200 million
80
children1
70 Diabetes and kidney diseases
Globally, the disease burden Neurological
60
disorders Vision and hearing loss
from mental and substance use Substance use disorders
50
disorders is projected to Musculoskeletal
increase by ~20% and
40 disorders
Other NCDs Chronic
Skin diseases Cancers respiratory
~45% respectively, before 30
Maternal/ Self-harm/ diseases
accounting for the impact of 20 neonatal interpersonal
COVID-19 on exacerbating violence Digestive diseases
10
Mental disorders
these conditions 0
HIV/AIDS Unintentional injuries
and STIs
-10 Nutritional deficiencies
Children affected by mental Respiratory infections and TB Cardiovascular
health problems go on to earn -20 Transport injuries
diseases
20% less than their peers, -30 Tropical diseases Enteric infections
the result of diminished and malaria
-40
educational attainment and Other infectious diseases
-50
additional challenges in finding
Lower likelihood with age Higher likelihood with age
and retaining employment
1. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation | 2. Disability adjusted life years
Source: Prioritizing health – a prescription for prosperity, MGI, July 2020 McKinsey & Company 30
Mental and substance use disorders are increasingly relevant
across generational cohorts
Baby
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Boomers
Anticipated prevalence of mental and substance Potential changes in total spend for people with mental and
use disorders pre and within 12 months post substance use disorders before and during first year post
COVID-191, % of total population COVID-191,2,3, $ billions
30% $611
$569
$78
+21% $66 +30%
+50% $470
20% $43
$503 $534
$427
Pre COVID-19 Post COVID-19 Pre COVID-19 Post COVID-19 (Low) Post COVID-
19 (High)
1. Analysis includes claims data from the Medicare FFS Limited Data Set from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, de identified Medicaid data, and the International Business Machines Corporation’s Truven MarketScan Commercial
Database. Any analysis, interpretation, or conclusion based on these data is solely that of the authors and not International Business Machines Corporation
2. This does not include Tricare, individual market, or uninsured populations | 3. Accounts for reduction in spend for people losing employment and not gaining Medicaid coverage McKinsey & Company 32
The potential to reduce disease burden from mental and substance
use disorders is hindered by systemic barriers
Diseases burden reduction potential by 2040 in the “healthy lifespan” scenario, based on 2017 Disease burden reduction in
disease burden1, % Healthy lifespan scenario
Mental and substance use disorders Million DALYs 2
Lack of scale for evidence-based Only 5% of adolescents with first episode psychosis and 10% of
interventions for mental and substance preschoolers with ADHD receive guideline-concordant care 4
use disorders
Poor integration of physical health, Individuals reporting poor mental health are 1.9x as likely to
behavioral health, and social determinants report not receiving the healthcare they need, and 2.5x as likely
of health to report having multiple unmet social needs5
Low levels of behavioral health literacy 37% of Americans view opioid use disorder as a personal
and lingering stigma relating to mental and weakness and not a disease6; 53% of psychiatrists report
substance use disorders discriminatory attitudes from other providers to patients7
1.McKinsey Vulnerable Populations Dashboard | 2. Surgeon General - Facing Addiction in America, 2016 | 3. Milliman Research - Number of Psychiatrists Rising, but 1-in-5 Children Still Live in County Lacking a Psychiatrist, 2019 | 4. Variability in ADHD Care in Community-
Based Pediatrics, 2014 | 5. McKinsey Consumer Mental Health Survey, 2019 | 6. Politico/ Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health 2018 | 7. Canadian Psychiatric Association
Residential
treatment services
Recovery Inpatient
Over-burdened support treatment
Under-utilized/ under-developed services
McKinsey & Company 35
Stakeholders must work together to address these challenges and
optimize the current state of behavioral health care
Detail follows
The emerging vision for behavioral health would include:
Behavioral health needs addressed with the same urgency, skill, and
compassion as physical health
McKinsey & Company 36
We are supporting Shatterproof in their development and
execution of a national strategy to reduce the stigma around
opioid addiction
is a national non-profit organization dedicated to reversing the addiction crisis in the United States
Why opioid Nearly 1 in 3 people know someone addicted to opioids. Every 11 minutes someone dies from an
addiction? opioid overdose (more than deaths from car crashes). Even though it is a preventable, treatable health
condition, only 1 in 5 people with an opioid addiction get care they need.
Why does The consequences of stigma include lower rates of diagnosis, poorer quality of treatment, and a
stigma more difficult road to stable recovery
matter?
May 20, 2020 | Article April 24, 2020 | Podcast April 2, 2020 | Article February 20, 2020 | Survey February 14, 2020 | Survey
The implications for Changing views on Returning to resilience: Understanding the Insights on mental
COVID-19 for mental and substance The impact of COVID- impact of unmet social health from a 2019
vulnerable populations use disorders: An 19 on mental health and needs on consumer McKinsey Consumer
interview with Patrick substance use health and healthcare Survey
Kennedy
McKinsey’s open- Former congressman, As governments race to Income, employment, McKinsey conducted a
access dashboard looks Patrick Kennedy, contain COVID-19, it is education, food security, national survey to
at individuals with discusses mental and important to know the housing, transportation, understand the impact
physical or behavioral substance use disorders actions society can take safety, and social of unmet social needs
health vulnerability and and how healthcare to mitigate the support are all factors on consumer health
their risk for developing stakeholders can help behavioral health impact that affect health and outcomes, utilization,
COVID-19. these populations of the pandemic and well-being. and preferences.
especially during the economic crisis.
COVID-19 pandemic.
Erica Coe
Partner, Atlanta
[email protected] Vulnerable populations dashboard
Key features:
[email protected] [email protected]
[email protected] [email protected]
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