Alexandria University Feasibility study
Faculty of Engineering 4th year
Naval architecture & Marine 19-4-2011
Engineering Dept.
Sheet (1): Forecasting
1. Forecasts based on averages. given the following data:
Period Number of Complaints
1 60
2 65
3 55
4 58
5 64
Prepare a forecast using each of these approaches:
a. The appropriate naive approach
b. A three period moving average
c. Weighted average using weight of 0.5 (most recent).0.3 and 0.2
d. Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.4
2. Apple's Citrus Fruit Farm ships boxed fruit any where in the world. Using the following
information, a manager wants to forecast shipments for the first four months of the next year.
Month Seasonal relative Month Seasonal relative
January 1.2 July 0.8
February 1.3 August 0.6
March 1.3 September 0.7
April 1.1 October 1.0
May 0.8 November 1.1
June 0.7 December 1.4
The monthly forecast equation being used is
Ft=402 +3t
Where: t0 = January of last year Ft=number of shipments
a. Determine trend amounts for the first four months of the next year: January t=24; February
t=25; etc.
b. Multiply each monthly trend by the corresponding seasonal elative for that month.
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3. Plot the data on graph and verify that a linear trend line is appropriate .develop a line trend equation
for the following data; then use the equation to predict the next two values of the series.
Period Demand
1 44
2 52
3 50
4 54
5 55
6 55
7 60
8 56
9 62
4. Obtain estimates of quarter relatives for these data:
Year 1 2 3 4
Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1
Demand 14 18 35 46 28 36 60 71 45 54 84 88 58
5. The owner of small hardware store has noted a sales pattern for window locks that seems to parallel
the number of break-ins reported each week in the news paper. the data are:
Sales 46 18 20 22 27 34 14 37 30
Break-Ins 9 3 3 5 4 7 2 6 4
a. Plot the data to determine which type of equation linear or non-linear is appropriate.
b. Obtain a regression equation for the data.
Estimate sales when the number of break-ins is five.
6. Given the demand data that follow, prepare a naive forecast for periods 2 through 10. Then
determine each forecast error and use those values to obtain 2s control limit. If demand in the next
two periods turn out to be 125 and 130 can u conclude that forecasts are in control?
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Demand 118 117 120 119 126 122 117 123 121 124
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7. A commercial bakery has recorded sales (in dozens) for three products, as shown below:
Day Blueberry Cinnamon Buns Cupcakes
Muffins
1 30 18 45
2 34 17 26
3 32 19 27
4 34 19 23
5 35 22 22
6 30 23 48
7 34 23 29
8 36 25 20
9 29 24 14
10 31 26 18
11 35 27 47
12 31 28 26
13 37 29 27
14 34 31 24
15 33 33 22
a. Predict orders for the following day for each of the products using an appropriate method.(Hint:
plot each data set)
b. What should the use of sales data instead of demand imply?
8. National mixer, Inc., sells can openers. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows:
Month Sales (000units)
Feb 19
Mar 18
Apr 15
May 20
Jun 18
Jul 22
Aug 20
a. Plot the monthly data on a sheet on graph paper.
b. Forecast September sales volume using each of the following:
1) A linear trend equation
2) A five-month moving average
3) Exponential smoothing with smoothing constant equal to 20, assuming a March forecast
of 19000.
4) The naive approach.
5) A weighted average using 60 for August, 30 for July, and 10 for June
c. Which method seems least appropriate? Why? (Hint: refer to your plot from part a)
d. What does use of the term sales rather that demand presumes?
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9. A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its man plant. August
usage was forecast to be 88 percent to capacity; actual usage 89.6 percent of capacity. A smoothing
constant of 0.1 is used
a. Prepare a forecast for September.
b. Assuming actual September usage of 92 percent, prepare a forecast for October usage.
10. Freight car loading over a 12-year period at a busy port are
Week Number Week Number Week Number
1 220 7 350 13 460
2 245 8 360 14 475
3 280 9 400 15 500
4 275 10 380 16 510
5 300 11 420 17 525
6 310 12 450 18 541
Determine a linear trend line for freight car loadings.
a. Use the trend equation to predict loadings for weeks 20 and 21.
b. The manager intends to install new equipment when the volume exceeds 800 loading per week.
Assuming the current trend continues, the loading will reach that level in approximately what
week?
11. Managers of a store that sells and installs hot tubs want to prepare a forecast for January, February,
and March of the next year. Her forecasts are a combination of trend and seasonality. She uses the
following equation to estimate the trend component of monthly demand: Ft = 70 +5t, where t=0 in
June of the last year. Seasonal relative are 1.10 for January, 1.02 for February, and 95 for March.
What demands should she predict?
Good Luck
Dr. Ghada El Khayat
Eng. Hossam Salah
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