Chapter 6

The Human Population and the Environment

Based on Chapter 4 of Main textbook (Botkin and Keller)

1
Key Terms and Definitions
• Population dynamics: General study of population changes and factors
• Population: A group of individuals of the same species living in the same area.
• Demography: Statistical study of human populations
• Five key properties of population:
1. Abundance (size of population)
2. Birth rate
3. Death rate
4. Growth rate (difference between birth and death rate)
5. Age structure
• Important facts about the five key properties-
• changes in abundance depends on growth rate
• rates expressed as number per 1,000, not percentage

• Crude birth rate: number of births per 1,000 individuals per year
• called “crude” because population age structure is not taken into account

• Crude death rate: number of deaths per 1,000 individuals per year

• Crude growth rate: net number added per 1,000 individuals per year; also equal
to the crude birth rate minus crude death rate
Two important points emerge based on the world population density maps:

1)Population is not distributed uniformly

around the world.
• Some areas support large populations (One out of
every three people in the world is from either India or
China); other areas are very sparsely populated.
Two important points emerge based on the world population density maps:

2)Population patterns and rates of growth

change over time.
• With respect to growth rates, there are tremendous disparities around the world. We
live in “two very different demographic worlds,” one relatively small, old, and wealthy
(with very high consumption rates per capita) and the other very large, young, and poor
(with relatively low consumption rates per capita).
Population Density
• Population density- measurement of the number of people in an area
• It is an average number
• Calculated by dividing the number of people by area
• Usually shown as the number of people per square kilometer

• Factors of high density

• Low and flat large land area
• Access to water
• Resources
• Temperate climate- suitable to grow crops
• Political stability
• Good economic condition
• Good facilities- hospitals, schools etc.
• Factors of low density
• High mountainous land, island etc.
• Dry, desert and arid climate
• Few resources
• Lack of political and social stability
• Limited economic opportunities
• Lack of services

• Important- one or a few factors don’t determine density. A complex

combination of many factors influence density significantly
Globally, the average population
density is 62 people per km² in 2024

Many of the world’s small islands or

isolated states have large populations
for their size. The five most densely
populated are Macao, Monaco,
Singapore, Hong Kong, and Gibraltar.
Singapore has 8,430 people per km²,
more than 200 times as dense as the
United States and 2,000 times as
dense as Australia.

Of the larger countries, Bangladesh is

the most densely populated, with
1,342 people per km². This is almost
three times as dense as its neighbor,
India. It’s followed by Rwanda (584),
South Korea (530), Burundi (529), and
the Netherlands (525).
Reasons of Historical Population Growth

The fundamental causes of the acceleration of growth rate for humans in the past 200 years:
1. The reduced death rate due to changes in public health and sanitation.
2. Clean drinking water and proper disposal sewage has drastically improved health in developed
nations.
3. Also, medical innovations such as the use of antibiotics and vaccines have decreased the ability
of infectious disease to limit human population growth.

In the past, diseases such as the bubonic plaque of the 14th century killed between 30-60%
percent of Europe’s population and reduced the overall world population by as many as one
hundred million people. Naturally, infectious disease continues to have an impact on human
population growth, especially in poorer nations.
 History of Human Population Growth
Stage 1: Hunter and Gatherer Societies:

From the first evolution of humans to the beginning of agriculture. An early

period of hunters and gatherers (before 9000 B.C., population between 250,000
to 2 million).

Population density : 1 person/ 130-260 Km2;

Rate of growth : 0.00011% per year

Hunter-gatherers. Image credit: T.P.S. Dave.

 History of Human Population Growth
Stage 2: Early, Pre-industrial, Agricultural Societies:

Beginning with the rise of agriculture - with the domestication of

plants and animals and the rise of settled villages, human population
density increased greatly.
Beginning sometime between 9000 B.C. and 6000 B.C. and lasting
approx. until the sixteenth century A.D.
(1 A.D., population about 100 million; 1600 A.D., population 500
million)
Population density: 1-2 person/ Km2 ;
Rate of growth: 0.03% per year
 History of Human Population Growth
Stage 3: The machine age (Industrial Societies):

The industrial revolution is the change that spread through societies as they
started to use fossil fuels as energy sources to power their technology. This
period marked the transition from agricultural to literate societies.

Discovery of causes of diseases, invention of vaccines, improvements in

sanitation, other advances in medicine and health, and advances in agriculture
that led to a great increase in the production of food, shelter, and clothing.

Beginning about 1600 A.D. with the Renaissance in Europe and lasting until
1960 A.D.
 History of Human Population Growth
Stage 3: The machine age (Industrial Societies):

1600 A.D., population 500 million;

1800 A.D., population 900 million;
1900 A.D., population 1.6 billion;
1960 A.D., population 3 billion).

Industrial effects on the environment are the vast migration of people

from the countryside into cities and the pollution of air, land, and water.
Population growth rate was 0.1% per year
 History of Human Population Growth
Stage 4: The Modern Era:

The present situation, where the rate of population growth has slowed in
wealthy, industrialized nations but population continues to increase rapidly in
poorer, less developed nations

The growth rate of the human population reached 2% in the middle of the
twentieth century and has declined slightly, to 1.4%.

The modern era begins in 1960 A.D. (1960 A.D., population 3 billion; 1998 A.D.,
population 5.9 billion; 2007 A.D., population 6.7 billion, 2024 A.D. 8.1 billion)

http://www.viralnovelty.net/10-strange-everyday-facts-modern-society/
 History of Human Population Growth
Stage 4: The Modern Era:

Use of technology has altered much of the nature in a number of ways and
caused significant damage to the environment:

• air pollution,
• water pollution,
• waste production,
• soil depletion and degradation,
• groundwater depletion,
• habitat destruction and degradation,
• biodiversity depletion.
History of Population: The Malthusian Theory

• Almost 200 years ago, the English economist

Thomas Malthus eloquently stated the human
population problem

• He foresaw that the pressure of rapid human

population growth will lead to problems

• His theory is based on population dynamics and its

relationship with the availability of resources

• Malthus reasoned that it would be impossible to

maintain a rapidly multiplying human population on
a finite resource base
History of Population: The Malthusian Theory
The Malthusian Theory

• Malthus proposed the principle that human populations grow

exponentially (i.e., doubling with each cycle) while food production grows
at an arithmetic rate (i.e. by the repeated addition of a uniform increment
in each uniform interval of time)

• Thus, while food output was likely to increase in a series of twenty-five

year intervals in the arithmetic progression 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and so
on, population was capable of increasing in the geometric progression 1,
2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, and so forth
The Malthusian Theory

The Malthusian Theory

 The Malthusian Theory
• This scenario of arithmetic food growth with simultaneous geometric human
population growth predicted a future when humans would have no resources to
survive on. To avoid such a catastrophe, Malthus urged controls on population
growth.

• Malthus said that the development of mankind was severely limited by the
pressure that population growth exerted on the availability of food

• Malthus’s statements are quite straightforward

• From the perspective of modern science, they simply point out that in a finite
world nothing can grow or expand forever, not even the population of the
smartest species ever to live on Earth.
• Critics of Malthus continue to point out that his predictions have yet to come
true, that whenever things have looked bleak, technology has provided a way
out, allowing us to live at greater densities

• Our technologies, they insist, will continue to save us from a Malthusian fate, so
we needn’t worry about human population growth. Supporters of Malthus
respond by reminding them of the limits of a finite world

• Ultimately, in a finite world, Malthus must be correct about the final outcome of
unchecked growth

• He may have been wrong about the timing

• Did not anticipate the capability of technological changes to delay the
inevitable
• Some people believe Earth can support many more people than it does now

• But in the long run there must be an upper limit

• The basic issue that confronts us is this:

- How can we achieve a constant world population, or

- At least halt the increase in population, in a way most beneficial to most people?
 Calculating Change in Population
The growth rate of a population is
P2 = P1 + (B - D) + (I - E) then:

Where, g = (B - D)/N or g = G / N
P1 = number of individuals in a population at time 1, For example,
P2 = number of individuals in that population at some later time 2, B = 394000
D = 137900
B = number of births in the period from time 1 to time 2,
N = 19700000
D = number of deaths from time 1 to time 2,
I = number entering as immigrants,
g=?
E = number leaving as emigrants.
 Exponential Growth and
Doubling Time

Population that grows exponentially grows at a

rate proportional to the size of the population.

Exponential growth- growth that increases at a

consistent rate
- Annual growth rate is a constant percentage of
the population
- A constant rate of growth applied to a
continuously growing base over a period of time
Also called geometric growth
 Exponential Growth and Doubling Time
The doubling time is the period of time required for a quantity to double in
size or value. number of years it takes for a population to double. It is based
on exponential growth is very sensitive to the growth rate—it changes
quickly as the growth rate changes.

Td = 70/annual growth rate

where T is the doubling time and the annual growth rate is expressed as a
percentage. For example, a population growing 2% per year would double in
approximately 35 years.

US has a growth rate of 1% and a doubling time of 70 years. Sweden has a

growth rate of 0.2% and a doubling time of 350 years. China, the most
populated country in the world has a growth rate of 0.6% and a doubling
time of 117 years.

Currently, the world has a growth rate of 1.1% and hence, a doubling time of
64 years
Exponential Growth and Doubling Time
The equation to describe exponential growth is: 𝑁 = 𝑁0 𝑒 𝑘𝑡
where N is the future value of whatever is being evaluated;
N0 is present value;
e, the base of natural logarithms, is a constant 2.71828;
k is increment or R/100, where R is the rate of growth
t is the number of years over which the growth is to be calculated.

The equation for doubling time (Td) will be: 2𝑁0 = 𝑁0 𝑒 𝑘𝑇𝑑 2 = 𝑒 𝑘𝑇𝑑

ln(2) = ln( 𝑒𝑘𝑇𝑑 ) 0.693 = 𝑘𝑇𝑑

𝑅 69.3 70
0.693 = 𝑇𝑑 𝑇𝑑 = ≈
100 𝑅 𝑅
 Logistic Growth

If a population cannot increase forever, what changes

in the population can we expect over time?

• One of the suggestions made about population growth is that it would

follow a smooth S-shaped curve known as the LOGISTIC GROWTH CURVE
• This was first suggested in 1838 by a European scientist, P. F. Verhulst, as a
theory for the growth of animal populations.
• Applied widely to the growth of many animal populations including those important
in wildlife management, endangered species and those in fisheries, as well as the
human population.
Logistic Growth
• A logistic population increases exponentially only
temporarily - S-shaped curve rises steeply upward during
this time

• After that, the rate of growth would gradually decline –

slope curves outward horizontally (i.e., the population
would increase more slowly) until an upper population
limit, called the carrying capacity, was reached.
Inflection point
• Once that had been reached, the population would
remain at that number.

• Point at which the curve changes is called inflection

point – can’t estimate final size until a population
reaches this point
Logistic Growth?
Unrealistic assumptions of Malthusian and
Logistics Growth Theory

1. Constant environment
2. Homogeneous population
3. Constant carrying capacity
Age Structure
• A more comprehensive approach to forecast human population growth compared to
exponential and logistic because they ignore all characteristics of the environment

• Divides population among different age groups because environmental factors have
different effects on different age groups

• Age structure- a way to express how a population is divided among ages

• Proportion of the population of each age group

• Age structure of a population

• Affects current and future growth rates (birth and death rates also)
• Has an impact on the environment
• Has implications for current and future social and economic conditions
Age Structure

• Age structure varies considerably by nation and provides insight

into a population’s history, its current status and its likely future

• Age structures can take many shapes, but 4 general types are most
important:

- Pyramid
- Column
- Inverted pyramid
- Column with a bulge
Pyramid
Pyramid

• Pyramid shape occurs when a population has

• many young people
• a high death rate at each age—and therefore a high birth rate,
characteristic of a rapidly growing population
• relatively short average lifetime

• Developing countries – Pyramid

• Indicates population will grow very rapidly in future when the young
reach marriage and reproductive ages
• Suggests it will require more jobs in the future
• Many other social implications i.e. education, healthcare etc.
Column
Column

• Column shape occurs when

• Birth rate and death rate are low
• A high percentage of the population is elderly

• United States – more like a column

• Slow population growth
• Presence of a bulge: refers to the post- World War II baby boom - great
increase in births from 1946 through 1964
Inverted Pyramid

Fig: Age structure of Japan

Inverted Pyramid

• An inverted pyramid shape occurs if

• A population has more older than younger people

• Japan
• Declining population growth (-0.4%)
Column with a Bulge

Fig: Age structure of China (Source: CIA World Factbook)

Column with a Bulge

• A bulge shape occurs in a column if

• Some event in the past caused a high birth rate or death rate for some age
group but not others

• China – column with a bulge

• 5 births per woman in the early 1970s
• Birthrate drastically reduced after the one-child policy
• Bulge due to the high birth rate before the one-child policy
Demographic Transition
• Demographic transition: A four-stage pattern of change in birth rates and death
rates.

• Occurred during the process of industrial and economic development of Western

nations.

• It leads to a decline in population growth.

• Demographers developed this hypothesis after examining birth and death rates of
western European countries which became industrialized during the 19th century
Demographic Transition
 Demographic Transition
Stage 1: Pre-industrial stage:
• Living conditions are harsh and the birth rate is high (people have more children to
replace children who die from infectious diseases, malnutrition etc.)
• Death rate is also high
• Thus there is little population growth

Stage 2: Transitional stage:

• When industrialization begins, food production rises and health improves
• Death rates drop
• But birth rates remain high
• So the population grows rapidly
 Demographic Transition
Stage 3: Industrial stage:
• Industrialization is widespread
• Birth rate drops and approaches the death rate
• This is because:
• People in cities realize children are expensive to raise
• Having too many children also hinders them from taking advantage of job
opportunities
• Education and standard of living increase
• Population growth continues, but at a slower and fluctuating rate, depending on
economic conditions

Stage 4: Post-industrial stage:

• Birth rate declines even further to equal the death rate
• Thus, zero population growth is reached
• Subsequently, the birth rate falls below the death rate, and the total population
size slowly decreases
Carrying Capacity of Earth: Humans
• Maximum number of individuals that an area's resources can sustain indefinitely
without significantly depleting or degrading the ability of those resources to
sustain future populations

• Whether a region is overpopulated is determined not by population density or land

area, but carrying capacity

• Carrying capacity of an area can be altered by technology, environmental

degradation etc.
Carrying Capacity of Earth: Humans
Limiting Factors for population:

1. Short term (effects are apparent between 1-10 years): Disruption in food
distribution due to drought or energy shortage

2. Intermediate-term (effects visible within 10 years): Desertification, Shortage in

metal supply, Toxic pollutants in water

3. Long term (takes more than 10 years): Climate change, Soil erosion
Carrying Capacity of Earth: Humans
Estimations of Human Carrying Capacity of earth (no of people our planet could
support indefinitely):

1st Method: Based on past growth, estimate the future number through S-shaped
logistic growth curve.

2nd Method: Consider how many people can be packed in earth, ignoring
resources availability ~ could be 50 billion!

3rd Method: Deep ecologists – sustaining biosphere is primary objective and

believes no of people should be reduced ~ millions!
How to slow down population growth rate?

• Increasing age of first childbearing

• Education
• Birth-control and Family Planning Population
• National programs
Science &
Values

Quality of
Environment
Life
Homework: go to gapminder and play with the tool to find out more
interesting relationships

Go to: https://www.gapminder.org/tools/
 Human Population & Environment

Higher population can

mean higher
environmental impact

Read Botkin & Keller section 4.6 (pg-73)

 Human Population & Environment
• The simplest way to understand this:
T = P XI
Where,
T =total population impact on the environment
P= total population
I= individual impact on the environment
 Human Population & Environment

The danger that the human population poses to the environment is the
result of two factors:
1. the number of people
2. the environmental impact of each person…which depends on…
a) Consumption of goods/services
b) How resource intensive is the production of these
goods/services
 Human Population & Environment

• A bit more conceptual (by neo-Malthusians)

I = P XAXT
Where,
I =total human impact on the environment
P=total population
A=Affluence (Richness) -> consumption
T = Technology-> how resource intensive the production of goods/services is.

Human Impact on the environment equals the product of Population, Affluence, and Technology
 Environmental Degradation
(as a result of population growth)

1. Reduction of biodiversity

2. Increasing use of the earth's net primary productivity

3. Increasing genetic resistance of pest species and

disease-causing bacteria
4. Elimination of many natural predators

5. Introduction of potentially harmful species into

communities
6. Using some potentially renewable resources faster than
they can be replenished (resource depletion)
7. Interfering with the earth's chemical cycling and
energy flow processes
8. Relying mostly on polluting and climate-changing
fossil fuels