Conditional Probability
The probabilities associated with such a reduced sample space are called conditional probabilities is
symbolized as
P(A/B)
number of sample Po int s in A∩ B n( A∩B)
P( A / B ) = =
Number of sample po int s in B n ( B)
Dividing the numerator and the denominator by the number of sample points in original sample space.
i.e. n (S) we get
n (A ∩ B ) n ( S) P ( A ∩ B)
P( A / B ) = . =P ( A / B ) =
n(S) n(B) P ( B )
Where the vertical line is reads as given that and the information above the vertical line describes the
conditioning event.
If A and B are two events in a sample space S and if P ( B ) is not equal to zero then the conditional
probability of the event A given that event B has occurred written as
P ( A ∩ B) P( A ∩B)
P( A / B ) = P ( B / A )=
P ( B) Similarly P(A)
It should be noted that P (A / B ) satisfies all the basic axioms of probability namely
i. 0 ≤ P ( A / B ) ≤ 1
ii . P ( S / B ) = 1 [ ∵ S ∩ B = B , ∴ P( S / B )=
P (S∩B )
P(B)
=
P( B)
P( B)
=1 ]
iii. P ( A 1 ∪ A 2 / B ) = P( A 1 / B ) + P( A 2 / B ) Pr ovided the A 1 and A2 are mutually exclusive.
1. Reliability Analysis of Mechanical Systems
Scenario: A mechanical system consists of multiple components
(e.g., gears, bearings, shafts). The failure of one component may
affect the failure of another.
Conditional Probability Application: Calculate the probability that
a specific component fails given that another component has already
failed.
o Example: What is the probability that a bearing fails given that
the lubrication system has failed?
Quality Control in Manufacturing
Scenario: In a manufacturing process, defects in one stage of production may lead to defects in
subsequent stages.
Conditional Probability Application: Determine the probability that a part is defective in the
final inspection given that it had a defect in an earlier stage.
o Example: What is the probability that a machined part is out of tolerance given that the
cutting tool was worn during machining?
. Failure Analysis of Machines
Scenario: A machine may fail due to various reasons, such as overheating, vibration, or
improper maintenance.
Conditional Probability Application: Calculate the probability that a machine fails due to
overheating given that it was not properly maintained.
o Example: What is the probability of a pump failure due to overheating given that the
cooling system was not functioning optimally?
Predictive Maintenance
Scenario: Predictive maintenance uses data to predict when a machine is likely to fail.
Conditional Probability Application: Determine the probability that a machine will fail in the
next month given that it has been operating under high stress conditions.
o Example: What is the probability of a turbine blade failure given that it has been
operating at high RPM for an extended period?
Stress and Strain Analysis
Scenario: In material testing, the probability of a material failing under stress depends on its
previous loading history.
Conditional Probability Application: Calculate the probability that a material will fail under a
specific load given that it has already undergone a certain number of stress cycles.
o Example: What is the probability that a steel beam will fail under a load of 500 MPa
given that it has already undergone 10,000 cycles of fatigue loading?
Fluid Mechanics and Heat Transfer
Scenario: In fluid systems, the probability of a blockage or leakage
may depend on the operating conditions.
Conditional Probability Application: Determine the probability of a
pipe blockage given that the fluid viscosity has increased due to
temperature changes.
o Example: What is the probability of a blockage in a cooling
system pipe given that the coolant temperature has dropped
below a certain threshold?
Design Optimization
Scenario: In designing mechanical components, the probability of achieving a desired
performance metric may depend on specific design parameters.
Conditional Probability Application: Calculate the probability that a design will meet the
required strength given that a specific material is used.
o Example: What is the probability that a gear design will withstand a torque of 100 Nm
given that it is made of alloy steel?
Risk Assessment in Projects
Scenario: In project management, the probability of a project delay may depend on the failure
of specific tasks or equipment.
Conditional Probability Application: Determine the probability that a project will be delayed
given that a critical machine has broken down.
o Example: What is the probability that a construction project will be delayed given that
the crane has malfunctioned?
Vibration Analysis
Scenario: Excessive vibration in machinery can lead to failure, and the probability of failure may
depend on the vibration levels.
Conditional Probability Application: Calculate the probability that a machine will fail given that
the vibration amplitude exceeds a certain threshold.
o Example: What is the probability of a motor failure given that the vibration amplitude
has exceeded 0.5 mm/s?
Environmental Impact Analysis
Scenario: The probability of a mechanical system causing environmental damage may depend
on specific operating conditions.
Conditional Probability Application: Determine the probability of an oil spill given that the
pipeline pressure has exceeded the safe limit.
o Example: What is the probability of an oil spill given that the pipeline pressure sensor
has failed?
A construction company employs 2 executive engineers. Engineer-1 does the
work for 60% of jobs of the company. Engineer-2 does the work for 40% of jobs
of the company. It is known from the past experience that the probability of an
error when engineer-1 does the work is 0.03, whereas the probability of an error
in the work of engineer-2 is 0.04. Suppose a serious error occurs in the work,
which engineer would you guess did the work?
Solution
Let A1and A2 be the events of job done by engineer-1 and engineer-2 of the company respectively. Let
B be the event that the error occurs in the work.
We have to find the conditional probability
P (A1 / B ) and P (A2 / B) to compare their errors in their work.
From the given information, we have
P (A1 ) = 0.60, P (B / A1 ) = 0.03
P (A2 ) = 0.40, P (B / A2 ) = 0.04
A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events.
Applying Bayes’ theorem,
Since P (A1 / B ) > P (A2 / B) , the chance of error done by engineer-1 is greater
than the chance of error done by engineer-2. Therefore one may guess that the
serious error would have been be done by engineer-1.
Example-1 Suppose a pair of dice is tossed once. If it is known that one die shows a 3 .
What is the probability that other die shows a 6
Example-2 Two dice are rolled once if it is known that one die shows a 5. What is the
Probability that total of both dice is greater than 8
Example-3 In a certain college 25% of the students passed In Mathematics, 15 % of the
students passed Statistics and 10 % of the students passed both Mathematics
and Statistics. A Student is selected at random.
i. If he passed statistics, what is the probability that he passed in mathematics (0.666)
ii If he passed in mathematics, what is the probability that he passed in statistics (0.4)
108 The probability that an automobile being filled with gasoline will also need and oil
Change s 0.25 the probability that it needs a new oil filter is 0.40 and the probability
that both the oil and filter need changing is 0.18 .If the oil had to be changed what is
the probability that a new oil filter is Needed.
109 Find P ( A and B ) if ; i. P ( A ) = 1/2 , P ( B ) = 2 / 3 , P ( A or B ) = 3/4
ii. P ( A ) = 1/2 , P ( B ) = 2/3 , P ( A / B )
110 The probability that a married man watches, a certain T.V. shows is 0.4 and the
probability that a married woman watches the show is 0.5, the probability that a man
Watches the show, given that his wife dews in 0.7 .Find i. the probability that a married
couple watches the show
ii. The probability that a wife watches the show given that her husband does.
iii. The probability that at least 1 person of a married couple will watch the show
“If the first button in a shirt is put wrong.
Then every button will be wrong”
111 Let the population of adults in a small village be categorized according to sex
and
employment status as
Employed Unemployed
Male 460 40
Female 140 260
If a person in chosen at random, find the probability that it is male given the
employed
112 Let A, B be the events in a sample space such that P ( A ) = 3/4 , P ( B ) = 1/3 ,
P ( A U B ) = 5/6 What is the probability that i. P ( A and B ) ii. P ( A/B ) and
P ( B/A )
113 Let A and B be independent events with P ( A ) = 0.7 and P ( B ) = 0.2, compute
i. P ( A ∩ B) ii. P ( A U B ) iii. P ( A’ U B’ ) iv. P ( A / B )
Male ( S1 ) Female ( S2 ) Total
Favour ( A1 ) 392 649 1041
Oppose ( A2 ) 241 174 415
Total 633 823 1456
The following table classified 1456 people and by whether or not they favour
a
new:
Compute the following probabilities if one of these 1456 person is selected
randomly:
P ( A1 ) ii. P ( A1 /S1 ) ,P ( A1 /S2 )
114 6.172 In a certain town 40% of the people have brown hair, 25% have brown eyes
and
15% have
both brown hair and brown eyes. A person is selected at random from the
town
i. If he has brown hair, what is the probability that he has also brown eyes
ii. If he has brown eyes, what is the probability that he does not have brown
eyes
iii. What is the probability that he has neither brown hair nor brown eyes
115 6.171 Suppose a biscuit factory in Karachi wants to fill the post of Programmer for
their
Computer Division. After interviewing many applicants, the firm has identified
20 applicants categorized as in the following table:
Certificate Course Diploma Course Total
Male 10 2 12
Female 5 3 8
Total 15 5 20
If a Diploma holder is selected, what is the probability that the person is a
Male?
116 6.191 10 % males and 2 % females are color blind and male and female each are 50%
of the Population. A person is selected at random. What is the probability that
she is
i. color blind and male ii. Color blind and female
117 6.181 Given P (A) =0.50, P( B ) = 0.30 and P( A and B ) = 0.15. Verify that : i. P( A/B ) =
P( A )
ii. P (A/B’ ) = P( A ) iii. P( B/A ) = P( B ) iv. P ( B/A’)= P( B )
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Q3 What is conditional probability? A typical consumer survey might result in data like
that shown below
Type of Phone Male Consumers Female Consumers Total for each row
Owned
Basic Phone 651 660 1311
Smart Phone 1411 1021 2432
Total for each 2062 1681 3743
column
i.P(consumer owning a Smartphone) ii. If we define M: consumer is male
S: consumers owns a Smartphone P( S / M ) [Link] F and B represent the events,
F: consumer is female B: consumer owns a basic phone P(B /F ) and P(F/B)
Q-5 In a certain college 25% of the students passed In Mathematics, 15 % of the students
passed Statistics and 10 % of the students passed both Mathematics and Statistics. A
Student is selected at random.
i. If he passed statistics, what is the probability that he passed in mathematics (0.666)
ii If he passed in mathematics, what is the probability that he passed in statistics (0.4)
Q-6 The probability that a male student attend the class of mathematics is 0.4 and the
probability that a female student attend the class is 0.5. The probability that a male
student attend the class given that female student attend is 0.7 .Find the probability
that
i. male and female students attend the class [Link] male or female student attend the
class
Q-7 In a survey of a group of people the following results are obtained
40 % own a tape recorder, but not a TV 10 % own a TV but not a Tape record 20 % own
neither TV nor Tape 30 % own both TV and a Tape
i. What is the probability of people who own either a TV or a tape recorder?
ii. What is the probability of people who own a tape record among the TV
owners
Q-8 A random sample of 200 students are classified according to class status and smoking
habits
If a student is selected at random from this group .Find the probability that
i. The student of 1st year class given that the student is smoker (0.0212)
ii. The student is non smoker given that the student of 4th year (0.310)
1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year Total
Smokers 21 33 25 23 99
Non Smokers 47 26 29 9 101
68 59 44 29 200
