Project Scheduling PERT/CPM

A Project
Construction of a bridge
Highway
Power Plant
Repair and maintenance of an oil refinery
Design and development
Marketing of new product

may be defined as a collection of inter-related activities

which will be completed in a specific time according
resources such as personnel, money, materials, facilities.
Activity : An activity is a task or an item of work to be
done in a project.
An activity represent by arrow with a node at the beginning
and a node at end.

Event: Events of the network represent as starting and

the completion of the activities.

Node: Node denoted a circle. It is a logical diagram, length

or space has no meaning. Design (3 days)

Starting End
event Activity
event
Predecessor Activity: Activities that must be completed
immediately prior to the start of another activity.

Successor Activity: Activities that can not be started

until one or more of other activities are completed

Dummy activity: An activity which does not consume any

kind or resource but serves the purpose of indicating
the predecessor or successor relationship in network.
Rules of Network Construction:

1) There must be no loop.

2) Each activity is represented by only one arrow.
3) No event can occur until every activity preceding has
been completed.
4) An activity succeeding an event cannot be started until
that event has occurred.
5) Time flow from left to right.
6) Dummy activities should only be introduce if absolutely
necessary.
Construct the Arrow Diagram:
Budgeting process in a large manufacturing firm that is
W-L Company, the president wants his next year’s
operating budget prepare as soon as possible. Now this
project of budgeting at W-L broken down into jobs.

Job Job DescriptionImmediate Dept. Time

Predeceases (days)
_______________________________________________

A Forecasting unit sales - Sales 14

A1 Surveying competitive - Sales 3
Price
B Pricing sales A, A1 Sales 3
Job Job Description Immediate Dept. Time
Predeceases (days)
_____________________________________________________

C Preparing production A Production 7

schedules
D Costing the production C Accounts 4

E Preparing budget B, D Finance 10

 B 10 days
A1 5 6
ays 3 3 days E
3 d

ys
D

4 da
1 14
day
s
A 7 days
2 4
c
 Critical Path Analysis

Time estimation: The object of time analysis is to prepare

a planning of the project.

Total completion time.

Earliest time when each activity can starts.
Latest activity when each activity can be start without
delaying the total project
Float for each activity.
Identification of critical activities and the path.
 Critical Path Analysis
4
5 2
2
2
3 4
2 5 4 10
8 9
1 3 6

8
2 5

4
4 7
 Forward Pass Calculation
TES (Task Early Start) - the earliest start time of that activity.
TEF (Task Early Finish) - the earliest finishing time of the
activity

(i, j) = Activity with tail event i and head event j

The earliest finish time of the activity (i, j)

(TEF)ij = (TES)ij + Duration

The earliest event time for the event j is the maximum

of the earliest finish times of all activities ending into
the event :
Ej= max{ ( TEF) ij + Duration}
 Backward Pass Calculation
TLS (Task Late Start) - this is the latest time that the activity
in question can begin

TLF (Task Late Finish) - this is the latest time that the activity
can end.

The latest starting time of activity (i,j)

(TLS)ij= (TLF)ij – Duration

Latest event time for event i, is the minimum of the latest start
of all activities from the event

TL= min { TLF)ij - Duration

 Critical Path Analysis
2 || 6 6 |10
4
5 2
2
2 11 | 12 15 | 15
2 || 2 7 ||8 3 4
2 5 4 10
8 9
1 3 6

8 19 ||19
0 ||0 2 5

4
4 7

2 ||6
10 ||10
 Concept of Slack and Float
* Slack means the freedom for scheduling or to start of the activity.
* It is calculated by the diff. between Es and Lf for any event.
* An event for which the slack time is zero is know as critical event.

Float: Total float is the maximum delay that can be permitted

without affecting the project completion.

Free float: it is the time an activity can be delayed without affecting

the starting of a succeeding activity.

Independent float: It is the time started as late as possible and

finished as early as possible.

Critical Path: It can located by all those activities for which slack
time is Zero.
 7 ||8 11 | 12

4
Es| Ef Ls| Lf

Float: Total Float

= Lf (Head event) – Es (Tail event)
- Duration of the activity
= (12 – 7) - 4 = 1
Program Evaluation and Review Technique
(PERT)

* The Concept of three time estimation

* The Project which high degree of uncertainty about the
activities

Example: Developing new plant

Making Plant
Building a house
For each activity, three time estimates are taken
The Most Optimistic
The Most Likely
The Most Pessimistic
Optimistic time (a): This indicates the minimum time
that an activity take if every thing goes smoothly and
well during the project.

Pessimistic Time (b) : This indicate maximum time that

an activity will take -- a result which occur only unusually
bad luck.

Most likely time (m): It is a normal time estimated of an

activity will take- a result which occur most frequently.
 This three time estimate into a expected time te

te= (a+4m+b)/6

and variance σ2 = {( b-a)/6}2

Analysis of Probability:

The project manager are interested in determining the

probability of meeting project completion deadline.

The mean of the normal distribution

Te= ∑ (Expected activity times on the critical path)
σ2 = ∑ (variances of activity on the critical activity)
To analysis probabilities of completion a project using
normal distribution the Z- transformation form:

Z = ( Ts – Te)/ SQRT( σ2)

Where Ts = due date for the project

Te = normal expected duration (duration of project)
σ = expected standard deviation of the
project length
Problem: A small project is composed with of activities
whose time estimation are given below:
Activity a m b
1-2 1 2 3
2-3 1 4 7
2-4 2 4 12
3-5 2 3 4
4-5 4 6 8
4-6 3 5 7
5-6 0.5 1 1.5
3-7 6 8 16
6-7 3 5 13
5-7 5 7 15
Draw the project network. What is the expected project length
Find the probability of completing the project in 25 days.
 3, 5, 7
4 6
2,4,12 3, 5, 13
4,6,8
1,2,3
0.5,1,1.5
1 2
2,3,4 5,7,15
3 5
1,4,7
7
6, 8, 16

Network Construction
Activity a m b te σ2

1-2 1 2 9 3 1.78
2-3 1 4 7 4 1
2-4 2 4 12 5 0.69
3-5 2 3 4 3 0.11
4-5 4 6 8 6 0.44
4-6 3 5 7 5 0.44
5-6 0.5 1 1.5 1 0.33
3-7 6 8 16 9 2.78
6-7 3 5 13 6 2.78
5-7 5 7 15 8 2.78
 5
4 6
5 6 6

3
1
1 2

4 8
3 5
3
7
9

Critical Path ( 1- 2 – 4 – 5 – 7)
The critical path will be ( 1- 2 – 4 – 5 – 7)
Te = 22 days
Variance (σ2) = 1.78 +0.69+0.44+2.78 = 5.69
σ = 2.385
Z = ( Ts – Te)/ σ = (25 – 22)/2.385 = 1.25

P (Ts ≤ 25) = P( Z ≤ 1.25) = 0.3944

The Probability of completion the project within 25 days

0.5+ 0.3944 = 0.8944 ≈ 89.44%
 Crashing
Assumptions in CPM model
To compute the project in the least possible time
To effect cost economy communication
Time Cost Relationship:
Project total cost (sum of direct cost and indirect cost)

Direct cost dependence upon the amount of resources

involved in the execution of individual activities.
Direct cost are incurred on direct materials and equipment
utilization ,direct labor.

Indirect cost consist of overhead items like indirect

supplies, rent, insurance, salaries, interest payment on
the capital etc.
Project crashing

Cost Slope: ( Crash cost – normal cost )/

( normal time – crash time)
Activity Time in weeks Cost Cost slope
Normal Crash Normal Crash

1-2 8 4 3000 6000 750

1-3 5 3 4000 8000 2000
2-4 9 6 4000 5500 500
3-5 7 5 2000 3200 600
2-5 5 1 8000 12000 1000
4-6 3 2.5 10000 11200 2400
5-6 6 2 4000 6800 700
6-7 10 7 6000 8700 900
5-7 9 5 4200 9000 1200
Total 45,200 70,400
 3
9
2 4 6

8 5 10
6

1
5 9 7
7
3 5
Step-I: The critical path is (1-2-4-6-7). The project duration
is 30 weeks. And the total direct cost Rs. 45,200/.
Indirect cost is Rs 2,000 per week.

Step-II: Examine the cost of slop of activities on critical

path.
The activity (2-4) has the lowest slop cost.

Hence activity (2-4) is crashed

 3
6
2 4 6

8 5 10
6

1
5 9 7
7
3 5

Examine the critical path ( 1-2-5-6-7), with project

duration 29 weeks, and the extra cost
3 weeks x 500= Rs 1500
Cost after crashing = Rs. 45,200 + Rs 1500 = Rs 46,700/
From the critical path (1-2-5-6-7) we find the activity
(5-6) has the least slope. Hence it can be crash.
 3
6
2 4 6

8 5 10
2

1
5 9 7
7
3 5

The new critical path (1-2-4-6-7) with 27 weeks duration.

Total direct cost = Rs 46,700+ 4 x 700 = Rs 49,500

The new critical path (1-2-4-6-7) with 27 weeks duration.

The minimum cost slop (1-2). And it can crash in next step
 3
6
2 4 6

4 5 10
2

1
5 9 7
7
3 5

The new critical path (1-3-5-6-7) with 24 weeks duration.

Total direct cost = Rs 49,500+ 4x 750 = Rs 52,500
Looking towards the new critical path ( 1-3-5-6-7) ,
the activity (3-5) will he crash due to least slop.
 3
6
2 4 6

4 5 10
2

1
5 9 7
5
3 5

Looking at the figure there are two critical path

(1-2-4-6-7) having length 23 weeks
Total direct cost is Rs 52,500 + 2 x Rs 600 = Rs 53,700
Looking towards the new critical path ( 1-2-4-6-7) ,
the activity (6-7) will he crash due to least slop.
 3
6
2 4 6

4 5 7
2

1
5 9 7
5
3 5

New critical path (1-2-4-6-7) and duration is 20 weeks.

Total direct cost = Rs 53,700 + 3 x Rs 900 = Rs 56,400
From the critical path (1-2-4-6-7) , we find that only
non-crashing activity is (4-6).
.
 2.5
6
2 4 6

4 5 7
2

1
5 9 7
5
3 5

The critical path again (1-2-4-6-7) with a duration

19.5 weeks. Total cost = Rs 56,400+ 0.5x Rs 2,400
= Rs 57,600. Since all the activities on the critical path
(1-2-4-6-7) are crashed, there is no possibility of further
time reduction.
 Project duration and total cost

Activities Project Total Total Total Cost

Crashed direct cost Indirect cost
(Rs.) (Rs) (Rs)
_________________________________________________

None 30 45,200 60,000 105,200

(2-4) 29 46,700 58,000 104,700
(2-4), (5-6) 27 49,500 54,000 103,500

(1-2), (2-4)
(5-6) 24 52,500 48,000 100,500
Activities Project Total Total Total Cost
Crashed direct cost Indirect cost
(Rs.) (Rs) (Rs)
_________________________________________________
(1-2), (2-4),
(5-6), (3-5) 23 53,700 42,000 95,700

(1-2), (2-4),
(5-6), (3-5),
(6-7) 20 56,400 40,000 96,400

(1-2), (2-4),
(5-6), (6-7),
(3-5), (4-6) 19.5 57,000 39,000 96,600
If the object is to minimize the total cost of the project, the
activities (1-2), (2-4),(5-6), (6-7), (3-5) is crashed and it
is a optimal solution and the cost is Rs 96,400.

If the objective to minimize the project duration then

activities (1-2), (2-4),(5-6), (6-7), (3-5), (4-6) is crashed
and the optimal duration is 19.5 weeks and the project
Cost is Rs, 96,600.