CURRENT AFFAIRS
DETERIORATING INDIA-PAK RELATIONS:
REASONS AND WAY FORWARD
SALMAN KHALID (RCTG)
05-11-2020
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SEQUENCE OF THE PRESENTATION
Currency of the Topic
Introduction
Relations in Historical Context
Current Developments
Reasons for deterioration of Indo-Pak Relations
Conclusion
Way Forward
References
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CURRENCY OF THE TOPIC
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CURRENCY OF THE TOPIC
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CURRENCY OF THE TOPIC
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INTRODUCTION
Prosperity of Nations is often associated with the Regional Stability
Relations with neighbours play a large role in reducing the threat environment
Pakistan and India share same history, culture, environment, and domestic problems
Since partition, the relations of both countries have witnessed many highs and lows; mostly lows
Nuclearization of South Asia and doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)
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Source: The Economist (2012). Fantasy frontiers
RELATIONS IN HISTORICAL CONTEXT
1947-48 1971
• Indo-Pak War • 3rd Indo-Pak War
1965 1999
• 2nd Indo-Pak War • Kargil Conflict
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RELATIONS IN HISTORICAL CONTEXT
2004-05
2001 • Composite
• Militants attack Dialogue
Indian Parliament established
2003 2008
• Both countries sign • Mumbai
Ceasefire agreement attacks
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CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS
2013: Ceasefire violations
2015: Modi makes a surprise visit to the Pakistani eastern city of Lahore on Sharif's birthday
2nd January, 2016: Attack on Pathankot Air Force Station
18th September, 2016: Uri attack, India launches “Surgical Strikes”
14th February, 2019: Pulwama attack
27th February, 2019: India-Pakistan dogfight
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REASONS FOR DETERIORATION OF RELATIONS
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TRUST DEFICIT
India Pakistan
Tribal invasion of 1948 India's unwillingness to alter the status quo in
Pakistan army infiltration during the 1965 war Kashmir
Indian supportive role for secession of East Pakistan
1999 Kargil
India's hand behind anti-state movements
Pakistan army’s covert support to jihadi organization
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TYPE OF REGIME AND POLITICAL WILL
India Pakistan
Political parties pay heed to public demand Pakistan's political culture is termed as 'hybrid
Rise of nationalist party, BJP regime' - military influences democratic government
Defence and foreign policies are controlled by
BJP has adopted an aggressive approach and a policy
military
of disengagement towards Pakistan
Imbalanced civil-military relations and political
instability
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UNRESOLVED TERRITORIAL DISPUTES
Unresolved territorial disputes are the main hindrance in good relations between India and Pakistan
Disputed territories include:
Kashmir
Siachen glacier
Sir Creek
Kashmir is the flashpoint between the two countries
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STRATEGIC ARMS RACE AND DIFFERENT SECURITY
PERCEPTIONS
Numerical superiority of India over Pakistan in conventional military means
Heavy investments of India in defence expenditures to procure latest weapons
India and Pakistan are caught up in a strategic arms race
The level of insecurity in South Asia has increased
India and Pakistan view security in South Asia in different context
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Source: Al-Jazeera, “Nuclear neighbours: The India-Pakistan arms race”, Source: “International Institute for Strategic Studies Military Balance 2019”,
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10 August, 2017 World Bank
ENCIRCLEMENT POLICY OF INDIA AND PROXY WARS IN
AFGHANISTAN
India’s policy of ‘Chanakya’ (Kutilya)[1] – encirclement of Pakistan
Changing alliances in South Asia
Afghanistan and Iran’s alliance with India
China’s alliance with Pakistan
Proxy wars of India and Pakistan in Afghanistan to gain control over it
[1]
“Chanakya's Arthashastra relevant to understand strategic culture: Shivshankar Menon,” India Today, October 9, 2013.
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Source: The Wall Street Journal
BLAME GAME: TERRORIST ATTACKS AND SECESSIONIST
MOVEMENTS
Terrorism has affected both countries
India blames Pakistan for any terrorist attack that is carried out in its territory
Pakistan blames India of meddling in domestic affairs of Pakistan
Secessionist movements in Balochistan and kind of unrest in other parts;
Sabotage of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
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EMERGENCE OF COMPETITION OVER NATURAL RESOURCES
Climate change is a looming threat for both countries
Severe water shortage in near future due to depletion of natural resources
India’s threat of abrogation of Indus Water Treaty (IWT)
Pakistan’s objection over India’s decision to build dams
Prospects of ‘water wars’
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Source: Pakistan Today, “World Bank reassures mediation over Indus Waters Treaty”, January 26, 2017
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CONCLUSION
The relations between Pakistan and India will determine the future of South Asian region. Instead of fighting
over minor issues, both countries should focus their attention on socio-economic development in their territories. The
menace of poverty, unemployment, climate change, and terrorism are some of the issues that can be better solved
through cooperation rather than in isolation. In addition, Pakistan and India have more to gain in cooperation rather
than in conflict. Its high time that both the countries should shun their intransigence and work on resolving their
territorial disputes, reducing trust deficit, and working on a joint mechanism to fight terrorism.
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WAY FORWARD/RECOMMENDATIONS
An inclusive framework for resolution of Kashmir dispute
Joint working mechanism to curb the menace of terrorism
Demilitarization and initiation of Strategic Arms Restraint regime
Constructive third-party mediation/bilateral engagement and empowerment of regional institutions
Enhance trade and liberalize visa regulations
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WAY FORWARD/RECOMMENDATIONS
Cooperation to stabilize Afghanistan
Initiate military-to-military officer exchanges and resolution of minor issues
Encourage people-to-people interaction
Constructive role of media
Balancing role of United States of America (USA)
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REFERENCES
1. Anit Mukherjee, “A Brand-New Day or Back to the Future? The Dynamics of India-Pakistan Relations”
2. India Today, “Chanakya's Arthashastra relevant to understand strategic culture: Shivshankar Menon”, October 9, 2013
3. Chari, Cheema and Cohen, “Four Crises”
4. World Bank Report, “South Asia Energy: Potential and Prospects for Regional Trade”, November 8, 2007
5. Nisha Taneja, “Additional Trade Challenges: Transport, Transit, and Non-Tariff Barriers” in Pakistan-India Trade: What
Needs to be Done, What Does it Matter
6. Waqar-un-Nisa, “Pakistan-India Equation: Determinants, Dynamics and the Outlook”, Pluto Journals
7. Ayesha Rana, “Challenges to Strategic Stability in South Asia: An Analysis”
8. Muhammad Sajjad Malik, “Pakistan-India Relations: An Analytical Perspective of Peace Efforts”
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Thank You
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