A Game of Chance Using a Fair
Die
Understanding Probability, Expected
Value, and Variability
Game Rules
• • Roll a six-sided die to determine winnings or
losses.
• • If the roll is even (2, 4, 6), you win money:
• - Roll 2: Win 10 pesos
• - Roll 4: Win 20 pesos
• - Roll 6: Win 30 pesos
• • If the roll is odd (1, 3, 5), you lose money:
• - Roll 1: Lose 5 pesos
• - Roll 3: Lose 15 pesos
Expected Value
• Formula: E(X) = Σ (x_i × P(x_i))
• Calculation:
• E(X) = (-5 × 1/6) + (10 × 1/6) + (-15 × 1/6) +
• (20 × 1/6) + (-25 × 1/6) + (30 × 1/6)
• E(X) = 2.5 pesos
• Interpretation: On average, the player wins 2.5
pesos per game in the long run.
Variance and Standard Deviation
• Variance Formula: Var(X) = Σ [P(x_i) × (x_i -
E(X))²]
• Standard Deviation: σ = √Var(X)
• Results:
• • Variance: 372.92
• • Standard Deviation: 19.31
Interpretation of Results
• • Expected Value: The player is expected to
win 2.5 pesos per game on average.
• • Variance: 372.92 indicates the spread of
outcomes.
• • Standard Deviation: 19.31 shows high
variability in results.
• Conclusion:
• The game is favorable in the long run, but
short-term results can vary widely.
Game Demonstration
• • Step 1: Roll a six-sided die.
• • Step 2: Determine winnings or losses based
on the outcome:
• - Example: Roll 3 → Lose 15 pesos
• - Example: Roll 6 → Win 30 pesos
• • Step 3: Explain the results and compare to
the expected value.
Conclusion
• • The game is slightly favorable to the player
with a positive expected value of 2.5 pesos.
• • However, the high standard deviation
(19.31) indicates significant risk.
• • Would you take the risk to play this game?
Why or why not?
