WEEK-10

LECTURE
© 2022 McGraw Hill Limited
CHAPTER 4
A SURVERY OF PROBABILITY CONCEPTS

Power Point Presentation Prepared by Gary Bazdell, Carleton University

Learning Objectives
Define
LO4-1 the terms probability, experiment, event, and outcome.
Assign probabilities using a classical, empirical, or subjective
approach.
LO4-2
Determine the number of outcomes using principles of
counting.
LO4-3
Calculate probabilities using the rules of addition.
LO4-4
Calculate probabilities using the rules of multiplication.
LO4-5
Compute probabilities using a contingency table.
LO4-6
Use a tree diagram to organize and compute probabilities.
LO4-7
 4

DEFINE THE TERMS PROBABILITY, EXPERIMENT, EVENT, AND OUTCOME

LO4-1
Statistical Inference
• We now turn to the second facet of statistics, namely,
computing the chance that something will occur in the future.
This facet of statistics is called statistical inference.
•
• Statistical inference deals with conclusions about a population
based on a sample taken from that population.

• Because there is uncertainty in decision making, it is

important that all the known risks involved be scientifically
evaluated. Helpful in this evaluation is probability theory,
which has often been referred to as the science of uncertainty.
Probability
• A probability is a measure of the likelihood that an
event in the future will happen.
• It can only assume a value between 0 and 1.
• A value near zero means the event is not likely to happen.
• A value near one means it is likely to happen.
Three Key Words– An Illustration
Three Key Words
• An experiment is a process that leads to the
occurrence of one and only one of several possible
observations.
• An outcome is a particular result of an experiment.
• An event is a collection of one or more outcomes of an
experiment.
Introduction to Probability
• What is P(A) ?
• It is equal to (favorable outcome)/ (total possible outcomes)
• What is a sample space?
• It is a set of total of all outcomes
• Let’s look at if we toss a coin. What are the outcomes?

• What if we toss two coins. What are the possible outcomes?

Intro to probability
• What does it mean when P(A) is 0.3
Intro to probability
• If two coins are flipped,
a) what is the probability of getting at least one head?
b) If three coins are flipped, what is the probability of getting
at least two tails?
c) If three coins are flipped, what is the probability of getting
exactly one tail
• Answer:
a) 75%
b) 50%
c) 37.5%
TREE OF PROBABILITY
• For part a:
• The sample space is { TT,TH,HT,HH}
• (A) = { TH, HT, HH}
• SO P(A) = ¾ = 0.75 OR 75%
• For part b:
• Sample space ={ TTT,TTH,THT,THH,HTT,HTH,HHT,HHH}
• A = {TTT,TTH,THT,HTT}
• P(A) = 4/8 = 0.5 OR 50%
• For part c:
• A = { THH, HTH,HHT}
• P(A) = 3/8 = 0.375 OR 37.5%
Intro to Probability
• A six-sided die is tossed,
• a) What is the probability of getting a 2? 16.7%
• b) What is the probability of getting a 3 or 5? 33.3%
• c) What is the probability of getting at most 4?66.7%
• d) What is the probability of getting a number greater
than 3?50%
• e) What is the probability of getting a number less than
or equal to 5? 83.3%
In-Class Exercise
A lamp manufacturer launches new range of emergency lamps.
Its durability is to be tested by 90 consumers.

(a) What is the experiment?

(b) What is one possible outcome?
(c) Suppose 75 consumers used the new emergency lamp and
said that it is durable. Is 75 a probability?
(d) The probability that the new emergency lamp will be a
success is computed to be – 1.0. Comment.
(e) Specify one possible event.
 4

ASSIGN PROBABILITIES USING A CLASSICAL, EMPIRICAL, OR SUBJECTIVE

APPROACH
LO4-2
Approaches To Probability
• In this section, we discuss two approaches to assigning a
probability to an event: the objective approach and the
subjective approach.

• Objective probability is subdivided into

• (1) classical probability and
• (2) empirical probability.
What is Subjective probability?
• Subjective probability is based on intuition, educated
guess and estimates
• Examples:
• A sport’s fan estimates his team will make it to the
playoffs is 50%.
• A business analyst predicts the chance of employees
going on strike is 20%
• Students predicts that there is 80% chance that final
exam will be an easy one.
Classical Probability
• Classical probability is based on the assumption that
the outcomes of an experiment are equally likely.

• Using the classical viewpoint, the probability of an event

happening is computed by dividing the number of
favorable outcomes by the number of possible
outcomes:
Example – Rolling a Die
• Consider an experiment of rolling a six-sided die.
• What is the probability of the event “an odd number of
spots appear face up”?
Solution – Rolling a Die
• The possible outcomes are:

• There are three “favorable” outcomes (a one, a three, and a five)

in the collection of six equally likely possible outcomes,
• therefore:
Some rules of probabilities
• Addition Rule:
• P( A or B) = P(AUB)
• = P(A) + P(B) –P(A and B)
• if they are not mutually exclusive

• If the events are mutually exclusive, then:

• P(A and B) = 0
• Therefore: P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B)
Rules of probabilities
• Conditional probability: p(A|B) is the probability of event A
occurring, given that event B occurs.

• Multiplication rule:
• Let’s look at conditional probability: These are dependent events
• P(A/B) = P(A and B)/ P(B)
• P(A and B) = P(A/B). P(B)
• In the same manner
• P(B/A) = P(B and A)/ P(A)
• P(B and A) = P(B/A).P(A)
• What if we have an independent events occurring. That is their
occurrence does not depend on the occurrence of the other one.
• P(A/ B) = P(A)
• P(B/A) = P(B)
• Therefore
• P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B)
• Notice that when we talk about P(A and B) occurring that means
both A and B occur at the same time. So, the order does not
matter.
• So
• P(A and B) = P(B) . P(A)
• Sara is deciding which courses she wants to take next
term. The probability she enrolls in Algebra is 0.3, and
the probability she enrolls in a Biology course is 0.7. The
probability she enrolls in the Algebra course given she
enrolls in Biology is 0.4
a) What is the probability she enrolls in Algebra AND
Biology?
b) What is the probability she enrolls in algebra OR in a
Biology course?
c) Are the two events independents?
d) Are the two events mutually exclusive?
Solution
• Let see what we have been given
• P(A) = 0.3 P(B) = 0.7 P(A/B) = 0.40
• P( A and B) = P(A/B) x P(B)
• P( A and B) = 0.7 x 0.4 = 0.28 or 28%
• b)
• P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) –P( A and B)
• P( A or B) = 0.3 + 0.7 - 0.28 = 0.72
• c) For the events to be independent
• P(A/B) = P(A)
• 0.4 = 0.3 they are not equal, so the events are not independent
• d) For the events to be mutually exclusive:
• P( A and B) = 0, but we know it is 0.28, they are not exclusive
Other examples of classical
probability
• What is the chance of drawing a heart from a deck of cards?

• What is the chance of drawing a black card from the deck?

• What is the chance of passing a course?

• What is the chance of pulling your name from the list of everyone in
class?
Two More Terms
• Events are mutually exclusive if occurrence of one event means
that none of the other events can occur at the same time.
• So, these are the events that cannot occur at the same time.

• Lets, assume we have three events A, B, C

• If we roll a die, then there is a chance of getting either of these
values of a sample space S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6}
• If we have an event A = { 1,3} and B ={ 4,5,6} and C= { 2,4,5}
• What is the relationship between A and B?
• What is the relationship between B and C?
• What is the relationship between A and C?
Let’s look at another example
• S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
• If A = {1,2,3,4} and B= { 3,4,5}
• What is the P(AUB)? Remember that they are not ME
• Answer:
• P(A) = 4/6 = 0.67
• P(B) = 3/6 = 0.50
• P( A and B) = 2/6 = 0.33
• Now:
• P(AUB) = P(A) + P(B) –P(A and B)
• = 0.67 +0.50 – 0.33
• =0.84 or 84%
• What if we have another even C={ 6}
• What is the P(BUC)? Draw the Venn diagram for the
event
• P(B) = 0.5
• P(C) = 1/6 = 0.16
• P(BUC) = P(B) + P(C) –P(B and C)
• = 0.5+0.16 – 0
• = 0.66 or 66%