Probability
STATISTICS 1
Objectives
Definitions
An experiment is a situation involving chance or probability that leads to
results called outcomes.
An outcome is the result of a single trial of an experiment.
An event is one or more outcomes of an experiment.
Probability is the measure of how likely an event is.
Probability of an event
The probability of an event occurring is the chance or likelihood of it occurring.
The probability of an event A, written P(A), can be between zero and one, with
(i) P(A) = 1 ; indicating that the event will certainly happen, a sure event,
(ii) P(A) = 0 ; indicating that event A will certainly not happen, an impossible event.
Example
Solution
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
Example
Solution
(i)
(ii)
Complementary Events
A is the complement of A and means everything not in A. So is the
probability that A does not occur.
Note that the probability that A occurs + the probability that A does not
occur = 1 (one or the other must happen).
So
Thus: .
Example
Solution
(i)
(ii)
Single-event and Multiple-events
Single-event probability can be obtained easily through observation, however,
multiple-event probabilities are simplified using possibility spaces and
probability trees.
(i) Possibility Spaces
Example
Solution
su 1 2 3 4
(i) m
1 2 3 4 5
2 3 4 5 6
3 4 5 6 7
4 5 6 7 8
produc 1 2 3 4
t
(ii)
1 1 2 3 4
2 2 4 6 8
3 3 6 9 12
diff 1 2 3 4 4 4 8 12 16
(iii) 1 0 1 2 3
2 1 0 1 2
3 2 1 0 1
4 3 2 1 0
(ii) Probability Trees
Example
0.8 (ii)
0.2
(iii)
0.8
0.2
0.2
The ‘AND’ and ‘OR’ rules
When the word 'and' is used we multiply.
When 'or' is used, we add.
On a probability tree, when moving from left to right we multiply and when
moving down we add.
Using Set Notation (Union and Intersection)
Probability can be studied in conjunction with set theory, with Venn Diagrams
being particularly useful in analysis.
For two events A and B,
- the addition rule
represents the probability of A AND B occurring. This means A and B have to
happen.
epresents the probability of A OR B occurring. This means A or B or both can
happen.
This can be shown on a Venn diagram.
The rectangle represents the sample space, which is all of the possible
outcomes of the experiment. The circle labeled as A represents event A. In
other words, all of the points within A represent possible ways of achieving
the outcome of A. Similarly for B.
So in the diagram, P(A) + P(B) is the whole of A (the whole circle) + the
whole of B (so we have counted the middle bit twice).
Mutually Exclusive Events
Events A and B are mutually exclusive if they have no events in common.
In other words, if A occurs B cannot occur and vice-versa.
On a Venn Diagram, this would mean that the circles representing events A
and B would not overlap.
If two events are mutually exclusive,
so
Example
Solution
(i)
(ii)
Independent Events
Two events are independent if the first one does not influence the second.
Two events are independent if (and only if):
This is known as the multiplication law.
Example
Solution
(i)
(ii)
.
Conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring, given that
another event has occurred.
means the probability of A occurring, given that B has occurred.
For two events A and B,
And similarly
If two events are mutually exclusive, then .
If two events are independent, then:
So
Example
Solution
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
Example
0.95
0.95
Solution
(ii) (a)
(b)
(c)
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