Cenk Aydin

Thank you Asharq Business اقتصاد الشرق for hosting Syz Group tonight live in #dubai to discuss about the #fed and #us #equities markets The #Fed - Since the last FOMC meeting, macro data have been worsening with a deterioration of the job market, although latest jobless claims were distorted by Texas. - Based on labor data only, the Fed could justify a 50bps rate cut. However, inflation data have been sticky, even the components which are not tariffs related - e.g services ex Shelter - To balance these two contradictory developments, the Fed might cut by only 25bps. It would be the 1st time since 2008 that the Fed cut with inflation above 2.9%. It would be only the 3rd time since 1996 that the Fed cut rates with the #sp500 - What about the tone? It will be an awkward FOMC meeting, with "Trump-friendly" voters i.e Waller, Bowman and Miran voting for 50bps cut (and maybe even 75bps or 100bps for Miran) while the other FOMC members likely to stay unified around 25bps. Powell will have to deal with this... - All in all, we believe the market is too dovish with almost 6 rate cuts being priced in before the end of 2026. Only reasons for the Fed to cut as much would be 1) significant deterioration of macro data; 2) the Fed loses its independence #US #equities markets outlook: - As summer winds down, the market remains on solid footing, buoyed by AI tailwinds, rising corporate profits, solid economic growth and expectations of a more accommodative Fed. We believe the outlook for stocks remains constructive over the next 12 months. - Historically, when the Fed cuts interest rates without the economy being on the brink of recession, market performance tends to be positive.  - While the labor market appears to be softening, we expect the economy to stabilize and potentially reaccelerate in the months ahead, supported by tailwinds of fiscal stimulus, monetary-policy easing, and deregulation.  - We still recommend a moderately positive stance on global equities. With major stock indexes hovering near record highs and valuation by some measures elevated, markets could experience volatility ahead. We suggest investors use potential pullbacks as opportunities to invest at better prices or rebalance to maintain diversification. Key risks for market: 1) Valuations are demanding with #sp500 price to sales at all-time-high 2) #Macro shocks due to political ongoing uncertainty (eg, #tariffs on/off, #FOMC composition); 3) Upside risks on #inflation 4) Debt crisis in #europe Link to interview: https://lnkd.in/eVsb8mz2

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Oman Investment Authority, Bahrain Mumtalakat Holding Company ("Mumtalakat"​), Kuwait Investment Authority, Qatar Investment Authority, Public Investment Fund (PIF), Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA), and Mubadala collectively manage around $4 trillion in assets. ◼️ These sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) were set up to preserve wealth for future generations and diversify away from oil, mainly by investing abroad. But strategies have shifted. Today, they are placing greater focus on domestic economies, while also demanding technology transfer and knowledge spillovers in their foreign investment terms to boost local development. ◼️ A recent IMF working paper highlights the impact of this shift: a 1% increase in SWFs’ domestic investment (as a share of GDP) is linked to 0.4% growth in non-oil GDP over four years. Even more striking, 1% of foreign investments (FDI) leads to over 1.2% growth in non-oil GDP over the same horizon. This explains why, despite the trillions managed locally, GCC countries continue to aggressively attract FDI. ◼️ Traditionally, FDI into the GCC flowed to hydrocarbons. But in recent years, it has broadened into finance, logistics, hospitality, IT, real estate, and manufacturing, and these flows have continued despite global headwinds and geopolitical tensions. 📌 Beyond growth, FDI is also critical for jobs, in #Oman for example, 1 in 10 jobs is powered by FDI. ◼️ The paper further shows that GCC SWFs remain the main channel for outward investments, accounting for about 80% of the region’s outward flows. But are now emerging as dominant domestic investors, making up roughly 50% of local investment. ◼️ And add to that the fact that intra-GCC investments now make up about 25% of all FDI flows, a sign that the region is strengthening its own internal economic links. Table: Summary of the data used (2000-2023), deal values are in billion USD

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‘Toward a resilient financial future’ – UAE central bank governor’s call for collective action against illicit finance Banks are the gate — and the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates (CBUAE) is the gatekeeper. For #Gold dealers in precious metals and stones: enhanced due diligence at onboarding; proof of Ministry of Economy licensing and responsible sourcing; transparency of ultimate beneficial owners; OECD-style supply-chain checks; monitoring for trade-based money laundering; and reporting to the Financial Intelligence Unit Strong gates protect market integrity and the United Arab Emirates’ standing since removal from the European Union‘s high-risk list. In this opinion article, H.E Khaled Balama, Governor of the Central Bank of the UAE and Chairman of the NAMLCFTC calls for collective action against illicit finance. "In line with this vision, Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s capital, recently hosted a landmark event – the first-ever global roundtable of all nine FATF-Style Regional Bodies (FSRBs), held with the participation of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Secretariat," he writes. AMLintelligence.com https://lnkd.in/gmtuxpvs UAE Financial Intelligence Unit OECD - OCDE European Commission Financial Action Task Force (FATF) DMCC (Dubai Multi Commodities Centre)

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🚀 New Era for Family Offices in the Middle East: Eton Solutions and Asas Capital have joined forces to launch the region’s first-ever Family Office-as-a-Service (FOaaS) platform, a milestone move for wealth management in the GCC. Here’s why this matters: 🔹 One-stop digital solution for managing complex family wealth 🔹 Combines technology, governance, and investment tools on a single platform 🔹 Enables UHNWI and family offices to streamline operations and ensure privacy 🔹 Offers global standards tailored for the Middle East’s unique family office dynamics 🔹 Bridges the gap between traditional family office services and next-gen digital infrastructure As family offices in the region continue to grow in size and influence, this move brings global innovation closer to home. A timely solution as the GCC sees a rise in wealth transfer planning, next-gen involvement, and institutional-grade investment ambitions. Do you see Family Office-as-a-Service becoming the new standard across emerging markets, or will tradition still hold strong in wealth management? #FamilyOffice #MiddleEast #WealthManagement #GCC #UAE #Dubai #KSA #Vision2030 #DigitalTransformation #EtonSolutions #AsasCapital #PrivateWealth #FOaaS #UHNWI #Innovation

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