Cornelius Matthes

OUT ‼️🎉 My own key 🔟 points from new IEA Renewables 2025 Report just released 1️⃣ Renewables kept growing strongly with total capacity expected to DOUBLE by 2030. 2️⃣ The amount of new capacity coming online cannot be overlooked: with 4600 GW it is the equivalent of adding China, the European Union 🇪🇺 and Japan’s power generation capacity 3️⃣ The sun ☀️ shines strong… making almost 80% of such new ‘tsunami’ of renewables and showing a phase of further acceleration 4️⃣ Yet, the solar PV supply chain remains very concentrated with #China 🇨🇳 alone making 90% of all key production segments (and very strong leadership in mining and refining of key materials needed for renewables technologies) 5️⃣ But not everyone moves at same speed – there is improved momentum in Europe, #India 🇮🇳 and other emerging markets… 6️⃣ However, the forecast for the United States 🇺🇸 is revised down by almost 50% given new policy change… 7️⃣ And even in China – that is a dominator of new renewables addition – the outlook is revised down due to country’ shift from fixed tariffs to auctions 8️⃣ Wind offshore industry is the one facing most challenges and its outlook deteriorates compared to the past 9️⃣ As #renewables become mainstream, other challenges emerge. Including the need for more flexibility, grid investment and storage 🔟 Last but not least… renewables are NOT only for electricity but for heat and transport too – with some progress in those sectors too The full report – with big 👏 to renewables team – is fully available on IEA’s website (with all data too)

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The global electricity system is evolving fast — and the Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025 from the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights just how fundamental the changes are.    My key takeaways:  ▪️Demand is surging: Electricity demand is growing more than twice as fast as total energy use, driven by electrification and AI. ▪️Renewables break records: Wind and solar are expected to cover around 90% of the increase in global electricity demand this year, setting new milestones. By 2026 at the latest, renewables are forecast to surpass coal in global electricity generation. ▪️Negative prices are on the rise: In key EU markets, negative wholesale prices almost doubled within a year — from 4.5% in 2024 to around 9% in 2025. This underlines the urgent need for storage and demand side flexibility and a market design that supports this. ▪️Secure and resilient power systems are essential: Investment in grids, storage and flexible generation is increasingly critical to ensure stability, resilience and supply security as renewables expand.    At RWE, we are fully committed to driving this transformation, with our investments in renewables, storage, and flexible generation across our markets. 

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With the widespread deployment of solar PV, nuclear reactors increasingly need to modulate their power output in spring and summer. They can do so, but on the long run it is suboptimal. The argument that this makes it possible to save fuel is a bit weak. The share of nuclear fuel manufacturing is not significant in the cost of nuclear energy. However, nuclear reactors are infrastructures dominated by fixed costs, which means that they are more economically affected by a decrease in their load factor than fossil fuel power plants (low fixed costs and high variable costs). It is essential to take this rapidly growing phenomenon into account when planning the electricity system. On the one hand, we need to support all levers of electricity flexibility (on the production, storage and demand sides) and the economic incentives to develop them. This support is as important as that currently given to renewable energies. On the other hand, nuclear reactors built today must be designed keeping in mind the context in which they will be operating in the coming decades. In other words, what will their economic model be in a world where electricity price is almost null for several hours a day? The coupling of nuclear reactors with thermal storage capacities is a particularly interesting avenue to explore in this regard (this is what we are developing at HEXANA, with the coupling of sodium-cooled fast-neutron reactors with molten-salt heat storage). This allows the reactor to operate at full power at all times, while adjusting electricity and heat production in real time to the needs of the grid and the customers. Several companies are exploring this type of solution globally, which may offer a way to respond to a rapidly growing issue for the electrical system. https://lnkd.in/eghAW_VE

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PJM Interconnection in a lot of trouble here. Net short many GWs of electricity. "PJM has warned that it will have “just enough generation to meet its reliability requirement” in 2026 and 2027, and its independent market monitor has said that the costs associated with serving that new and forecast demand have already reached the billions, translating to higher retail electricity rates in several PJM states." https://lnkd.in/ecP7aePa

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Solar truths🌞 What are fossil fuels? Basically speaking, they are made of solar energy accumulated and stored for millions of year- and that we use at impressive rates. The future will still rely on solar energy but used in a very different way: to generate electricity. All energy transition scenarios see solar photovoltaics play a major role in the future energy system (one example here https://lnkd.in/eU2j-wSZ) As with many climate solutions (EVs being the worst affected), they are the topics of many false or misleading claims- mis and disinformation. And as is often the case, Carbon Brief is a great source to get accurate informatio- it just published a factcheck on 16 myths around solar. I have chosen as an illustration the question of land use. The image shows the space required for PV in the US and UK net zero scenarios compared to other land uses. Not negligible but not a blocker either. A great read for a rainy weekend (in London at least) Source of the graph: https://lnkd.in/ecFSBbGM #solar #energytransition #factsmatter

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Some really interesting fresh data on energy storage in China from the China Energy Storage Alliance (CNESA). Key observations: - Battery storage is growing rapidly - up a staggering 110% year on year to 101GW (i.e. 53GW installed in 12 months). This underscores how much easier BESS is deploy and how quickly it can be scaled. - Power-wise, BESS now exceeds PHS in China, at 101GW against 61GW, respectively. However, since PHS typically lasts for over 8 hours, at an energy capacity level, China's PHS still provides much more energy than BESS. Still, at the massive rate BESS is being installed, it may take just two years before BESS exceeds PHS in energy capacity, too. - About 2.7% or 4.4GW consists of neither lithium nor pumped hydro. I would expect this to be mostly flow batteries and thermal storage. - Average system prices fell by 28% to $77/kWh for 2-hour systems and by 69% to $62/kWh for four systems. The latter is an amazing cost decrease (suggesting that integration and manufacturing opmitisation was a huge driver). Note that 4-hour systems are 20% cheaper than 2-hour systems on a kWh basis. Data as of June 2025 #Energystorage #BESS #ESS #PHS #batteries #CNESA #China https://lnkd.in/gMUcZbi2

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7 Green Hydrogen Mega-Projects MUST SUCCEED Green hydrogen is at a decisive moment. Announcements once sparked excitement; now the market needs evidence: large, bankable, operational projects that prove electrolysers, RE supply, offtake & financing can work together at scale These 7 mega-projects, backed by serious investments, could make or break global confidence 1 NortH₂ Netherland–Investment in the multi-billion-euro range. Scaling from 1 GW in 2027 to 10+GW by 2040, this is Europe’s flagship hydrogen corridor. It aims to integrate offshore wind, H2 pipelines & salt-cavern storage, showing how a regional green H₂ backbone can replace natural gas networks 2 NEOM, Saudi Arabia–USD 8.4 billion. 4 GW of renewables producing 600 ton/day of hydrogen. It’s the first fully project-financed green hydrogen plant. If successful, it proves bankability at giga-scale & underpins the Middle East’s strategy to remain an energy exporter in a decarbonised world 3 Sinopec Kuqa China–USD 490 million, 260 MW electrolyser powered by solar. Already the largest operational facility but facing issues, it offers crucial lessons on how electrolysers cope with RE intermittency. Its learnings on integration, O&M & reliability will influence future Chinese & global deployments 4 Western Green Energy Hub Australia–USD 65–70 billion, targeting 50–70 GW of renewables for millions of ton of hydrogen/ammonia exports. If realized, it would be one of the largest renewable projects ever attempted, showcasing how ultra-scale hubs can shift cost curves & redefine global trade in green molecules 5 L&T–IOCL Panipat, India–Commercial plant producing 10,000 tpa of green H₂ for refinery decarbonisation. Value not disclosed but part of IOCL’s multi-billion dollar refinery upgrade. One of the 1st large refinery decarbonization projects worldwide. It demonstrates clear industrial demand, replacing grey hydrogen with green at significant scale in a developing economy 6 H2 Magallanes/TotalEnergies, Chile–USD 16 billion. Massive hydrogen+ammonia export project under environmental review. Taps Patagonia’s world-class wind resource & positions South America as a credible low-cost supply hub for Asia & Europe, diversifying global trade flows beyond the ME & Australia 7 Green Wilhelmshaven, Germany–Initial funding in tens to hundreds of millions, with long-term capex expected to rise as infrastructure scales. A coastal hub combining domestic electrolysis (200 MW planned) with ammonia imports & cavern storage. It’s Germany’s blueprint for becoming Europe’s hydrogen import & distribution centre Together, these projects test every critical element: renewable integration, electrolyser performance, project financing, industrial offtake, ammonia conversion, storage & import/export logistics The success of these projects is about sending a strong global signal that green hydrogen can be delivered commercially, at scale & across geographies #hydrogen #sanjeevsharmagh2 #gh2

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India is going big on energy storage with rapidly increasing hybrid (renewable energy + battery storage) tenders to increase the share of renewables in the total power generation. With a rise in preference for firm renewable energy, the share of hybrid tendered capacity has increased from about 12% in 2021 to over 49% in 2024 in the overall renewable energy tenders.  Since 2022, India has auctioned approximately 12.8GWh of battery energy storage system (BESS) capacity, with 9GWh offered in 2025 alone by May, for both hybrid and standalone applications. However, only about 219MWh of BESS capacity is reported to be operational, leaving a large pipeline of under-construction projects. While the government has introduced several measures, both on the supply side and demand side, to drive BESS capacity installations, challenges such as highly competitive bids, delays in signing power supply agreements and transmission interconnections, and high financing costs raise concerns over the deployment of tendered capacity.    I discussed these challenges and potential solutions in this piece published in Energy-Storage.news https://lnkd.in/gWna-Esu Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) #EnergyStorage #BESS #IndiaEnergyTransition

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Electricity prices in Europe fluctuated in September due to seasonal factors! https://lnkd.in/dEuhQ-5f In particular, in Germany on September 8, the cost of electricity rose to its highest level since February amid forecasts of a sharp drop in wind power generation. The day-ahead price rose to €142.45/MWh on that day, and from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m., it traded at around €400/MWh. Overall, prices on most major European markets rose in the third quarter of 2025, exceeding €65/MWh. This was caused by increased demand and a decrease in wind power generation compared to April-June, as well as rising CO₂ emission prices.

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