研究显示，基于分形和多分形参数来区分太阳活动区（ARs）的耀斑活性或预测耀斑事件并不十分有效。通过对2010年5月至2013年12月期间43个具有不同耀斑活性的ARs的高时空分辨率和高磁通敏感度SDO/HMI线-of-sight磁图的时间序列分析，研究了四个参数（一般分形维度D0和D8，以及多分形参数Cdiv和Ddiv）。虽然在不同耀斑等级的ARs上测量到的参数平均值存在差异，但同一等级事件的参数值分布范围广泛，导致不同等级耀斑区域的参数值可能存在大量重叠。C和M级以及M和X级耀斑ARs在参数上几乎无法区分，只有约50%的ARs和M、X级事件显示出可测量参数的明显变化。研究还表明，无论是基于总绝对值还是正负磁通数据，得出的分形和多分形参数估计结果都保持一致。
摘要：
Recent studies indicate that measurements of fractal and multifractal parameters of active regions (ARs) are inefficient tools for distinguishing ARs on the basis of the flare activity or to predict flare events. In an attempt to validate this result on a large observation data set of higher spatial and temporal resolution and higher flux sensitivity than employed in previous studies, we analyzed high-cadence time series of line-of-sight magnetograms of 43ARs characterized by different flare activity, which were observed with SDO/HMI from May 2010 to December 2013. On these data, we estimated four parameters, the generalized fractal dimensions D 0 and D 8 , and the multifractal parameters C div and D div . We found distinct average values of the parameters measured on ARs that have hosted flares of different class. However, the dispersion of values measured on ARs that have produced the same class of events is such that the parameters deduced from distinct classes of flaring regions can also largely overlap. Based on the results of our measurements, C- and M-class flaring ARs are practically indistinguishable, and the same is true for M- and X-class flaring ARs. We only found consistent changes on the time series of the measured parameters on ≈50% of the ARs and ≈50% of the M- and X-class events. We show that these results hold for fractal and multifractal parameter estimates based on total unsigned and signed flux data of the ARs.
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