Dive Brief:
- The number of U.S. packages delivered during the 2025 peak season will jump 5% from the previous year, primarily driven by an extra shopping day on the calendar, according to projections from ShipMatrix.
- The estimated 2.3 billion packages during the upcoming holidays would be the largest amount delivered since 2022, per a Sept. 29 news release from the parcel shipping consultancy and analytics provider. However, tariff pressures and the end of de minimis will be a headwind for delivery activity, the release added.
- ShipMatrix expects FedEx and Amazon to see a 5% to 8% increase in volume from the previous peak season, while UPS and the U.S. Postal Service deliveries are expected to remain flat, assuming trends among the carriers during the first half of 2025 continue.
2025 expected to see slight uptick in holiday volume
Dive Insight:
While volume is expected to outpace the previous two years, the 2025 peak season isn't expected to reach 2020's heights of 3 billion packages delivered, according to ShipMatrix. Consumer concerns over tariff-driven price hikes could be dampening the holiday outlook, with non-store holiday sales growth projected to slow as shoppers plan to be selective with purchases.
Some carriers may fare better than others during the uncertain period, however. For example, FedEx is "cautiously optimistic about peak season growth," EVP and Chief Customer Officer Brie Carere said in an earnings call last month. The carrier is planning for a modest increase in average daily volume during the holidays, driven by larger business-to-consumer shippers, she added.
"I anticipate our numbers will be slightly elevated versus [the] market," Carere said.
Meanwhile, many holiday surcharges imposed by parcel carriers like FedEx will increase in price compared to last year. The pricing pressures from the top carriers — FedEx, UPS and USPS — could encourage businesses to divert volume to alternative providers or insource many of their package deliveries like Walmart, per ShipMatrix.
"If the current levels of peak surcharges continue in future years, Amazon and Walmart, and carriers like OnTrac, Better Truck, Jitsu, DoorDash and Uber Eats will be delivering more parcels than the Big 3 combined by 2027," ShipMatrix said.
