Crew Sisley

When is it time to start investing in upper funnel? Outside of using astrology, the stages of the moon and dream tracking...REACH tends to be a strong predictor of when to get started. Here is a simple formula to bookmark: (% YoY Change in Reach) / (% YoY Change in Spend) This formula helps you analyze your spend adjusted YoY reach growth. Add this to your reporting and develop alerts for when this ratio dips into yellow/red territory (see visual below): ⚫ If your reach is consistently* growing as fast or faster than your spend, you are in good shape and can expect continued growth (see: “Healthy” quadrants below). ⚫If your reach is growing, but at a slower clip than spend, this is an early warning sign of stagnating growth. Monitor this closely. (see: Watch Out) ⚫ If your reach is contracting on increased spend, this is a sign you are on the performance plateau and should launch upper funnel ASAP. (see: Performance Plateau). *A note on consistency: one month of bad reach does not demand intervention. Monitor these numbers on a quarterly and half-yearly trend to understand what is noise and what is a trend. This formula and analysis only works when looking at a single channel in isolation, but for most brands a channel like Meta warrants that level of focus. I talk about this and more in part 1 of the Ultimate Meta Upper Funnel Playbook, coming tomorrow via my newsletter: - Why run upper funnel in the first place? - Why run upper funnel on Meta? - When is the right time to get started? - Baby steps for moving up funnel New Engen

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Great creative is hard. But when you get it right, it can be a game changer for any campaign. You have the idea. You have the media plan. But production? Usually slow. Expensive. High execution risk. Now AI flips this. You can move from concept to design in hours (sometimes minutes). A re-orchestrated flow, from idea → production → launch, is now the name of the game. And the budget? Lighter than ever. This changes everything, especially for growth teams. Maybe the future of marketing isn’t brand vs. performance. It’s iteration speed. Message velocity. Visual scale. These are 7 AI-generated examples that proved to me AI is going to reshape advertising: 1️⃣ BMW - The Ultimate AI Masterpiece ➝ They trained a neural net on 50,000 pieces of art. Then projected it live onto a car. ➝ No headline. No tagline. Just motion. The Change: What used to take an art director and a VFX team now runs in real-time. 2️⃣ Revolve - Best Trip ➝ A 20-year brand campaign. Built with generative AI. ➝ No models. No photographers. Just prompts. The Change: End-to-end billboard creative — concept to render — in less time than booking a studio. 3️⃣ KitKat – Have a Break (AI Edition) ➝ They didn’t brief a team. They briefed an AI. ➝ Headline, copy, layout: all generated. The Change: The creative team is now a prompt engineer. And the copy still lands. 4️⃣ WWF - #WorldWithoutNature ➝ AI imagined a future without forests, oxygen, birds. ➝ And it looked… normal. Which made it hit harder. The Change: AI didn’t just replace the illustrator. It did the emotional work faster. 5️⃣ Jacquemus – Le Bambino ➝ AI-generated handbag buses in Paris. Unreal, but believable enough to go viral. The Change: Creative that used to cost six figures and weeks of prep? Now it’s 48 hours and a rendering engine. 6️⃣ Nike – Never Done Evolving ➝ AI simulated Serena Williams playing her 1999 self. ➝ Then Nike ran it across outdoor and digital. The Change: No shoot. No CGI. No guesswork. Just training data and execution. 7️⃣ Virgin Voyages – Jen AI ➝ AI-generated J.Lo invites you on a cruise. Personalized. At scale. The Change: Celebrity campaigns used to mean long lead times. Now they scale like email. This isn’t about AI replacing creatives. It’s about giving them leverage. To move faster. Test bigger. Launch bolder. Growth teams that adapt will scale. The rest will be outpaced. * * * ♻️ Share if this made you think differently. Follow me, David Manela, for more 📈

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Everywhere I've worked, the strategy team has been small and respected, but stretched thin and stressed out. Each strat would be triaging one account after another. Managing a strategy team gets tricky because there are subtle ways that scoping and planning for the work are different, and lead to it being chronically undersold and misunderstood. For one thing, when it's part of a larger scope, and scopes are organized around deliverables, there aren't many tangible ones that strategy owns (e.g. briefs or reports). "We know what creatives are doing, and we know we need account to facilitate the whole thing, but what is that strategist doing just hanging out for all those hours?" You can add a bucket of oversight hours but when it's time to bring the price down, that looks like padding. Secondly, when strategy is done well, it ends up looking easy (i.e. like it shouldn't take much time). When you reveal a smart path forward, it seems like it was always there. Which means if your team consistently delivers good work over the long haul, you're effectively convincing the rest of the agency you need less time year after year. If you plan 30 hours to write a brief, accounting for rounds of client revisions, but you nail it in the first review after just 10 hours, was that good work or bad scoping?  As far as solutions, I can offer a few: 1. Never miss an opportunity to articulate the value of good strategy work to your agency's leadership, when it happens. Chip away at it. Yeah, you'll be kind of annoying, and occasionally look like a homer for your team, but it's better than the alternative. Make sure it's understood that when a project is completed on time and under budget, it's likely because strategy set the table well to begin with. 2. I like to remind people that as our industry careens towards commoditized, replaceable work, the more you'll need to be strategy-led (if not selling strategy outright). If it's thoughtless, AI can do it. The rest needs a strategy. 3. Resist the urge to frame strategy as an investment that leadership really should make. "Investment" just reads like a fancy word for cost. And it sounds like an auxiliary discipline. Instead, demonstrate that it's central to the agency's core work. Show that the agency is fundamentally more effective when strategy is present. 4. Don't be a martyr. If deliverables get the hours, then make up a deliverable. You can't put 80 hours for "abstract thinking." So make yourself accountable for a strategy readout, workshop, quarterly planning, or competitive analysis. 5. Lastly, don't overcorrect. Enjoy the fact that you can jump from one client to another - it's an opportunity to show how dynamic you can be. It's good to be in demand - just make sure people know why. I'd love to hear others' tips.

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What if we’re not heading into a slowdown, but something stickier? Next week I’ll be in Toronto for the Ad Age Small Agency Conference and Awards, where I’ll be speaking on a panel called “Tariffs and Tensions.” The session is designed to help agencies think through how to respond to rising trade barriers and economic uncertainty. Together with my fellow panelists, I expect we’ll share practical advice for how agencies can protect themselves and even grow in this environment. But as I prepared for the panel, I found myself thinking about something broader. I wanted to write it down while the thoughts were fresh. Core inflation rose to 2.9 percent in June. That rise appears to be driven in part by the early impact of tariffs that have already taken hold. This is inflation that is induced by policy, not pumped by strong demand. If/When pressure continues to build, I expect companies will raise prices to offset rising costs and at the same time, they’ll start looking for places to cut. Budgets will tighten. Hiring will slow. Work will be postponed. We’re already seeing the signs in our industry and advertising has always been a leading indicator of economic health. This isn’t ordinary inflation. It may be the beginning of stagflation. Stagflation is what happens when inflation continues to rise while growth slows and job losses begin to spread. It last took hold in the 1970s, sparked by an oil crisis and breakdowns in trade. Here’s what’s different this time around: AI. We’ve seen workforce reductions alongside automation before. What we haven’t seen is a shrinking labor market colliding with the rise of AI at this scale. That timing could have a profound effect on the job market even after economic pressure begins to ease. If AI is used to replace talent rather than support it, companies may find themselves without the strategic and creative capacity they need to recover. At HARMONIUM, we help marketing leaders make sense of moments like this. We look at how internal teams and agency partners are structured, how scopes align with outcomes, and whether the model in place still fits the moment. Our goal is to help clients move with clarity when the path forward isn’t obvious. Hope to see you at the conference next week. If you’re attending, please say hello. #AdAgeSmallAgency #Stagflation #Marketing #Strategy #advertising #Leadership #HARMONIUM

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Sydney Sweeney's $200M Denim Lesson Every CEO Should Study Sydney Sweeney wore denim. The internet lit up with unexpected, high-volume criticism. She responded with silence. That silence wasn’t avoidance. It was brand control in real time. American Eagle didn’t stumble. They provoked on purpose. The line “great jeans are in her genes” was built to spark conversation. And it did. The media lit up, a heated public conversation ensued, and analysts weighed in. The results? The brand’s value surged by over $200 million. Sweeney said nothing. That’s the move most leaders never consider. In today’s climate, silence feels risky. But when deployed intentionally, it signals control. After 21 years building brands for CEOs across five continents, one pattern is clear: The strongest personal brands know when to hold position without chasing applause or reacting to noise. When a moment heats up, most people want to: Explain. Soften. Defend. But true brand leadership lives in clarity, not instant apology. Sweeney didn’t dilute the moment. She let the brand carry the conversation. This is what high-performing brands understand: You don’t need to overpower the narrative. You need to own the energy inside it. The result? More reach. More alignment. More long-term equity. This was a masterclass in restraint, authority, and strategic momentum. When public pressure escalates, silence may be the most powerful signal. Other times, it’s strategic defiance. Sometimes it’s a thoughtful apology backed by decisive action. All are valid; if they align with the brand’s DNA and long-term strategy. Have you considered silence as a brand strategy? #americaneagle #personalbranding #branding

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When people talk about Out-of-Home advertising, the U.S. and Canada couldn’t be more different. In the U.S., it’s hyper-local—every city, every neighborhood matters. In Canada, for example, it’s national campaigns that move the needle, and the top three players have figured out how to scale that impact. Digital, print, and broadcast media are evolving too. Flyers still land in mailboxes, grocery brands are still leveraging them, and new tech—from programmatic OOH to OTT—makes campaigns smarter and faster. My biggest takeaway? Know your market. Always. Leverage the tech. And never underestimate the power of local insights—even when your strategy is national. #OOH #AdvertisingInsights

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