Ed Clarke

Canada's AI future starts in Alberta – and the moment to act on delivering it is now.  As Chris Varcoe highlights in this piece in the Calgary Herald Alberta's data centre race is heating up. Personally and professionally, I am incredibly excited and optimistic about what lies ahead.  What sets Alberta apart?  Our current energy surplus, bolstered by significant power generation investments, provides the stable foundation data centres need - without compromising energy supplies for Albertans.   A data centre or hyperscaler anywhere in Alberta is a win for our province, for Canada and for Capital Power. With nation-leading efficiency and surplus capacity ready to be unlocked, our Genesee Generating Station is uniquely positioned to support and benefit from any data centre that comes to the province.  Why Genesee?   From co-location to a power purchase agreement, or simply load growth in the province, our Genesee facility is positioned to capture the upside from data centres in Alberta. As Canada’s most efficient combined-cycle natural gas generation facility, Genesee is able to provide data centres with reliable power at the scale they demand.   We’re ready to power Alberta’s data centre ambitions today – and we have the ideal site at Genesee to unlock a hyperscaler opportunity for the province with access to redundant major fiber, development-ready land, and scalable power. The economic prosperity this can bring to our company, our province, and our country is vast. Data centres bring high-paying jobs, global investment that builds thriving communities, and they ensure Canadians control our digital security.   Why Capital Power? With proud roots in Alberta, we are a homegrown champion for Canada to capture the immense opportunities driven by global data centre demand. Our North American fleet is renowned for its reliability in meeting power needs across Canada and U.S., electrifying economic growth and sustaining thriving communities. Our track record of success demonstrates our expertise, creativity and unique ability to turn ambition into action. Our team is poised to lead the way in powering Canada’s AI future. As I shared in this article: "If we're going to meet the moment, that moment is now." Alberta has everything needed to become a global data centre hub. The question isn't whether we can – it's how quickly we collaborate to make it happen. https://lnkd.in/gz8jJwrc #Alberta #DataCentres #AI #EnergyLeadership #CapitalPower #Innovation

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REGULATION BOTTLENECKS ARE KILLING CANADA'S INNOVATION We talk endlessly about funding, talent, and R&D, but the real choke point isn’t capital. IT'S REGULATION! It’s the silent tax on ambition. The slow bleed of opportunity. Every week of delay costs us innovation, exports, and credibility. We’ve built a system that moves slower than the science it governs. - PMRA reviews can take years. - Novel food approvals drag on. - Interprovincial trade barriers make it easier to sell abroad than at home. We are funding companies to wait out the regulatory clock. An incredible waste of assets that could be going into new ideas and new innovations We are losing ground, not because we lack ideas, but because our systems can’t keep up. Here’s the opportunity: Canada can lead the world in agile, trusted, evidence-based regulation, the kind that protects people and accelerates innovation in agriculture, biotech, and climate tech. We don’t need less regulation. We need regulation that leads, continuously learns and takes on weighted risk alongside our innovators. I’m calling on entrepreneurs, policymakers, investors, and innovators. I’m compiling a national record of what’s working - and particularly what isn’t. If you’ve experienced: - Delays or duplications in PMRA, CFIA, or environmental approvals - Interprovincial trade barriers or inspection bottlenecks - Lost deals or stalled projects because of regulatory uncertainty ** Share your story** Comment, DM, or tag colleagues and organizations who have lived this reality. This is not another report, this is a call to action and I will be asking my friends and colleagues to amplify This continues the work I began with Canada’s Economic Strategy Tables more than 8 years ago promising agile regulatory environment. We built the case for growth in our Agrifood system. Now we need the courage for reform. Let’s align those ready to lead change, including: Council of Canadian Innovators | Conseil canadien des innovateurs (CCI) Business Council of Alberta Canadian Chamber of Commerce Creative Destruction Lab Canadian Agri-Food Policy Institute (CAPI) Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada/ Agriculture et Agroalimentaire Canada Help map Canada’s real regulatory roadblocks. I’m collecting: - Case studies and examples of approval delays - Stories of lost deals or stalled projects - Practical ideas for reform ➡️ Comment or DM me your experience. ➡️ Tag colleagues and orgs who’ve lived this.

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🚨 NEW POD ALERT 🚨 On the latest episode of the #humanunicornpod, I sit down with Amar Varma — co-founder of Mantle ($10m raised), Autonomic (acquired by Ford for <$400m), Xtreme Labs (acquired by Pivotal), longtime builder of Toronto’s tech ecosystem-- and maybe most importantly, amazing father of 4. From pioneering mobile app development before the iPhone App Store existed, to scaling two of Canada’s most successful exits, Amar shares what it really takes to build durable companies outside Silicon Valley. We dive into his founder journey, lessons learned from working with global tech giants, and his vision for the next wave of Canadian unicorns including the one he's building now- Mantle. 🇨🇦🦄

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Canada can’t keep funding everyone and expect to build global winners. Harley Finkelstein (Shopify's President) just dropped a bunch of SR&ED reforms: ✅ Pre-approvals ✅ Cut out middlemen ✅ Reward companies that keep IP in Canada ✅ Expand support to commercialization All great ideas. Here’s the problem: Canada wants to fund everyone. But in tech, outcomes follow a power law. Most companies will fail. A few will drive all the value. SR&ED helps any company that qualifies. Doesn’t matter if you’re the next Shopify or a zombie org running on government dollars. Yes, we increased funding. $4B in tax credits is no joke. But if we want to build real winners, tax credits aren’t enough. We need a second playbook for companies at the tipping point. Series A and B teams ready to scale. Ready to win global markets. That means: ✅ Strategic co-investment alongside private capital ✅ Government and pseudo-government procurement contracts going to startups (not just grants) ✅ Direct incentives to hire, sell, and export allocated to scale-stage companies ✅ Fast lanes for regulatory and pilot approvals SR&ED fixes are great. But if we want to build the next generation of category leaders, we have to do more than simplify paperwork. We have to pick winners and bet bigger. Another 100 seed-stage startups won’t change the economy. Five more Shopifys would.

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𝐁𝐢𝐠𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐢𝐬𝐧’𝐭 𝐚𝐥𝐰𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫: the strategic levers that allow Canadian VCs to generate top-tier returns without relying on billion-dollar outcomes 👇 In my last post, I highlighted that while U.S. venture exits are larger across every decile, Canadian fund-level returns can still match them when strategy and discipline are applied. Today, I’m sharing the numbers that illustrate exactly how. Introducing - 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐕𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐑𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐫𝐢𝐱 - a framework that illustrates how fund size, entry ownership, dilution, and exit value collectively interact to drive TVPI. The model applies actual Canadian exit values (25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles from 2010 – 2025) across a range of fund sizes ($25M – $100M), entry ownership levels (2.5% – 12.5%), and dilution rates (15% – 60%). Each cell shows the TVPI a single investment could generate under those conditions. 𝐓𝐡𝐞𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐤𝐞𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫 💡 1️⃣ "𝐘𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐢𝐳𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐲𝐨𝐮𝐫 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲." Holding exit value, dilution, and entry ownership constant, TVPIs under a $25M fund are 100% higher than a $50M fund and 300% higher than a $100M fund. Across scenarios returning ≥1.0x, $25M funds have 10, $50M funds 1, and $100M funds none - showing exactly why smaller funds can more easily generate multiples of committed capital. 2️⃣ 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬, 𝐡𝐢𝐠𝐡 𝐯𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲. The highest TVPIs are seen in $25M funds, but they also exhibit the widest range of outcomes. For example, under 15% dilution, TVPI spreads are 2.31x for $25M, 1.14x for $50M, and 0.58x for $100M funds - underscoring that while "small funds can outperform", manager selection remains at the forefront. 3️⃣ 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐞𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐢𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬. Holding all else constant, TVPIs with 15% dilution are 113% higher than with 60% dilution. This underscores the importance of using reserves to back a fund’s winners - top-end exits with lower dilution are key to making venture math work. 4️⃣ 𝐄𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐲 𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐩 𝐢𝐬 𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐲𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠. In diversified portfolios, spreading capital too thin and taking low entry ownership can put a fund on the back foot from the start, limiting its ability to generate fund-level returns - even on outlier exits. Securing high entry ownership relative to fund size positions the fund to outperform when things go well, and excel when they go exceptionally well. The conclusion is clear: 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 - 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬 - 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐧𝐬. The Venture Returns Matrix is a reminder that Canadian VC success isn’t about chasing the next multi-billion dollar exit. It’s about 𝐟𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐡: right-sized funds, well-structured investments, and disciplined ownership. Get those right, and there is no reason why Canadian venture can't generate top-tier returns on par with the best funds globally. Signals in the Noise 🤓

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Earlier this week, 72 leaders, all members of Canada's Clean50 - and all heavily focused in the "clean tech" / "climate tech" space as leaders of "makers", investors, or as heavy users of the technologies, finalized a document we submitted yesterday to the government and Minister François-Philippe Champagne as part of the government's budget consultation process. Here's the point that needs repeated over and over: If we are "nation building" then it needs to be with projects that meet the climate emergency moment - not prop up failing industries which will make it worse. And in that context, to paraphrase The Graduate, the one word you need to remember is not "Plastics" - it's "Climate Tech"! The world market for "climate tech" is already enormous and expected to triple over the next decade. The industry is already contributing $80 BILLION to Canada's GDP, This is already 4 times more than the steel and auto manufacturing industries alone! The world market for oil is already saturated, and prices are set by a bunch of sheiks over whom we have no control. The world market for steel are similarly constrained, and we can't just make more ore. In contrast, the market for climate tech is already massive - and not constrained other than by the resources we put into building the industry- and our talent pool. This is actually useful nation-building. Creating CAREERS, not just jobs. Improving the environment - not making it worse. And energy efficiency making our homes and offices better - saving us money. So we think NOW is the time for the government to invest - and to fix the many things - big and small - that are dragging our growing industry down. Below and at the link is our collective advice to the Minister and his team (contributors listed in comments below). * * * * At this inflection point, we believe the proposals put forth represent a remarkable opportunity for Canada and the upcoming budget to catalyze a torrent of investment and economic growth – and at the same time we see incredible risk to the existing industry if many of these proposals are not implemented immediately. There are numerous Canadian clean tech companies presently at risk of departing Canada for more hospitable climes – and others at risk of failure despite having incredible IP and remarkable tech, because the process of obtaining useful support or financing is just too long – or bluntly, more trouble than it’s worth. We urge you and your team to review the attached, and then act with purpose and vigour, to realize this remarkable opportunity to actually “nation-build”, by growing Canada’s place in the massive world-wide economy of the future, create great long term careers for our youth, all while addressing the climate emergency, rather than focusing on industries that make the environment worse with pipelines, while offering only short-term jobs. https://lnkd.in/g4kxgbCk

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Otto is Framework Venture Partners AI powered data collection, scoring and matching service. Otto’s data corroborated Leaders Fund work. Startups in the software space in Canada peaked in 2018 at just under an estimated 20,000. As of the beginning of 2025 Otto estimates that number is below 10,000. While there is a rebound from the nadir, it is clear Canadian startups have had nearly a decade of decline. https://lnkd.in/g39A2Fqw

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