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Product-market fit genuinely feels different...and it'll show up in the data Demo to close rates are the easiest thing to look at for product-market fit right now. Vertical AI startups in our portfolio are seeing 50%+ demo to close rates, even with brand new account executives selling the product. It's happening in every market from AI takeoffs to AI CSR/Voice software to AI procurement solutions. When you see a demo to close rate over 50% chances are you have a jaw dropping customer experience and you should put your foot on the gas. If you're seeing something dramatically lower in mid-market or SMB ACV categories, it's worth revisiting your product and/or your pitch.

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2009: The financial crisis had crushed fundraising. Barely any new capital went into venture funds. Yet the vintages from those years went on to deliver some of the strongest returns in history. Fast forward to today (2024/2025): Venture capital fundraising is at its lowest point in more than a decade. What does that mean? - ⁠Less money will be available to startups over the next years - The bar for raising capital goes up again: quality matters - ⁠Entry valuations will reset to saner levels --> Funds raised now are likely to outperform, just as history shows The paradox of venture: the best time to commit capital is exactly when most people hesitate. Investors (Limited Partners) should lean in now, not when the next boom makes it easy.

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Y Combinator Summer 2025: Key takeaways Batch facts: • ~160 companies in the program • We spoke with 60+ teams in our focus areas (AI, B2B, productivity) before Demo Day • Average valuations hit new highs for YC Sample deals (revenue → round → valuation) 1. $0–2k MRR → $2M at $20M 2. $10–30k MRR → $3–4M at $30–40M 3. $20k MRR → $8M at $80M 4. $15M ARR, founder is 16 → $10M at $80M; round closed instantly What stood out: • Many teams building similar products (e.g., several in AI Q\&A) • First sales often happen inside the batch (companies selling to each other) • New norm: gather interest and soft commits first, then announce who made the round at the end — it used to be “first to commit gets in” • Teams feel very similar; it’s harder to spot a clear “top of the batch” Bottom line: valuations are even higher, traction even weaker than in prior years. Investor FOMO is extreme, and a record number of companies were oversubscribed before Demo Day. Still, we made an offer to only one company.

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I interviewed the Spenser Skates, founder & CEO of Amplitude, a YC Company doing +300M in revenues. This man has raised from Sequoia, Benchmark, Battery Ventures and more. If you are thinking about raising Venture Capital, these are 8 things you can't miss: 1. Think in decades, act as if there's no time: https://lnkd.in/dZcFEz5f 2. Most startups don't get traction early on: https://lnkd.in/d7f4Kd3X 3. How to raise millions: https://lnkd.in/diuayRxZ 4. How to choose between investors: https://lnkd.in/dTyM3aiD 5. Rule of 40: https://lnkd.in/dxw36nM4 6. What is the 20% of what Spenser does that drives 80% of his results: https://lnkd.in/djpGEBuY 7. What's the future of Software: https://lnkd.in/dj67C7in 8. The GoHub Ventures question. What would Spenser build right now: https://lnkd.in/dJbHq5ic PS: The podcast is packed with insights, check it out here: https://lnkd.in/dTgiD4cA

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🚨 Another YC unicorn minted 🚨 Eight Sleep (YC S15) just raised $100M at a $1B valuation—but the real story isn’t funding. It’s how they escaped the “mattress trap” by creating a new category: Sleep Fitness. I break down: YC’s category creation playbook How data + execution built a moat Where Eight Sleep goes next (AI + healthcare) 🎥 Full episode here ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/eh448arg

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🚀 Great new tool from SaaStr to help founders estimate their valuation. While it’s mostly based on US data (like Carta ) it clearly shows just how big the impact of AI and revenue growth can be on your valuation. Thanks 🙏 Jason M. Lemkin for making this so accessible to the founder community! https://lnkd.in/eZUG4Xzd

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Sequoia Capital’s Product-Market-Fit Framework... Sequoia Capital’s Arc accelerator team put together a framework for early-stage founders that outlines 3 ways to reach PMF: 1️⃣ Hair on Fire: You’re solving an obvious but important problem in, likely, a crowded market and do it better than anyone else (example: Zoom, during the pandemic) 2️⃣ Hard Fact: You challenge a conventionally accepted fact and demonstrate an alternative (example: Superhuman). 3️⃣ Future Vision: You skate to where the puck is going. Your customers don’t even realize how much they need your solution until they use it (for example: Tesla). The Arc accelerator team at Sequoia Capital has explained each of these three ways with a case study. This is a must-read guide for all founders... 👇 Recently, we shared a financial model template and a database of 35+ different investor contacts in our Venture Curator newsletter. Check it out, link is in the comments. . #startups #founders #venturecapital #vc #product #founder #investors #funding

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