Daniel Cadete

Maybe not a “full” golden age of gas…🔥 But the excitement for natural gas was palpable at #Gastech, maybe to a level not seen since a while.   Numbers are supportive for gas. If you take last year’s #energy demand, only renewables contributed to the overall growth more than gas. And the interest around this energy source is reinvigorated by multiple elements.   Here some of key messages from IEA Chief that in my view resonated very strongly at Gastech Exhibition & Conference in Milan.   🔥 On demand side, gas use in industry is strong and coupled with a rapid rise in electricity demand, in what the IEA is calling the ‘Age of Electricity’ creates multiple opportunities. Those are for renewables, for nuclear but certainly also for gas (and orders for gas turbines of major gas manufacturers show that) 🔥 When it comes to drivers of gas demand, of course a lot of attention goes to the “hot topic” namely AI.. and that matters. But in the big picture, the IEA analysis clearly shows that only 10% of the growth in global electricity consumption to 2030 is due to AI. Other sectors - ranging from industry to cooling and electric vehicles - are the big elephants in the room.   🔥 On supply side, the keyword is MASSIVE: a massive wave of new LNG export is set to hit the market. In just 5 years nearly 300 bcm of new LNG export capacity from US, Qatar and Canada is flooding market.   🔥 The implications of such trend cannot be overlooked, but are not in one direction only. Because if more gas available (and much more flexible in terms of destinations) suggests a likely downward pressure on prices, that might generate multiple dynamics in coal to gas switch but also in the renewables versus gas competition. Time will tell.   🔥 Another interesting element is the large presence of #Africa at Gastech. Italy is not far from Africa (and links between my native country and the continent are historically deep and traditionally strong) but the presence of many African Ministers highlights a legitimate claim of Africa to make more use of its notable gas resource base. 🔥 With one striking data reminded by IEA Chief: even if Africa uses all its 5000 bcm gas reserves, continent cumulative emissions would just go from today’s 3% of total to just under 3.5% - simply impossible and unfair asking Africa to not use those resources, especially for a region with hundreds of million people being with no access to power. 

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Since #Gastech starts tomorrow, I had to do a "𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥". John Ramshaw Jenny Kelly Tanya Crossick Catriona McDavid Very happy to present our new piece of analysis on #Qatar, written together with my colleague Ira Joseph. https://lnkd.in/emtAY9YK We have talked so much about the #US, #China, #Russia. Ever wondered what Qatar could or not do during the upcoming LNG expansion phase? 👉 Lots of Qatari capacity coming online + their share in Golden Pass 👉 They have been insisting on long-term contracts with little flexibility 👉 There has not been that much of the upcoming expansion contracted to final customers, so what will they do with the unsold LNG? This is the elephant in the room, and for some reason, nobody is wondering about how that could play out in different ways. Their strategy is the wildcard which can change everything in the global LNG and gas market. Depending on whether they will be passive, active, greedy, fighting, everything can change. So we have explored 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝘀𝗰𝗲𝗻𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻 ◾ Engage in active market management ◾ Incentivize demand ◾ Adopt an aggressive market share strategy I hope this will lead to some nice discussions at #Gastech! Happy to explore more scenarios 😄 Center on Global Energy Policy Tatiana Mitrova Karen Young Robin Mills Robert Johnston Jean-Christian Heintz Mehdy Touil Nicolas Rauline Liam Denning J. Jefferson Edwards Chris Pedersen Danielle Stoves Zeyno Elbasi Hiroshi Hashimoto Akira Yabumoto

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THE ROLE OF SMALL MODULAR REACTORS IN ENHANCING GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY A comparative analysis of deployment strategies in diverse energy markets and economies The paper comprehensively assesses the potential deployment of small modular reactors (SMRs) in global energy markets. Section one examines the current energy security landscape and contextualizes the role SMRs may play in meeting expanding energy needs while promoting sustainability. Energy security concepts will be explored alongside geopolitical factors influencing policies. Section two provides a comparative analysis of SMR deployment strategies across developed and developing country contexts. Hypothetical case studies and scenarios will assess economic feasibility, regulatory environments, and infrastructural readiness factors for various implementation approaches. Realistic opportunities and challenges for both near-term and long-term adoption will be identified. Section three explores how SMRs can complement intermittent renewable technologies like solar and wind to create reliable hybrid energy systems and support green hydrogen hubs feasibility. The potential for SMRs to enhance the stability and resilience of grids integrating high shares of renewables is analyzed. Technical integration considerations and projected cost-competitiveness compared to alternatives is also addressed. The final section offers policy recommendations necessary to successfully integrate SMRs domestically and internationally. By taking a multidisciplinary look at technical, economic, political and environmental factors, the paper presents a comprehensive analysis of SMR deployment options. The topic directly engages with priorities around energy access, sustainability and innovation, ensuring its relevance to ongoing scientific and policy discussions.

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🫨 An additional charge could apply at German #natgas entry points next gas year due to excessive balancing costs incurred this summer. 😦 Updated #German grid and VTP usage charges effective 1 October 2025 will be published by mid-August. German market area manager Trading Hub Europe (THE) runs both low and high-calorific gas grids. Cross-quality balancing is carried out using its “conversion neutrality” account. This is usually done by selling one quality or type of gas and buying another to balance the grids, but can involve other methods like physical conversion or imports from the Netherlands. THE set a “liquidity buffer” – or budget – of €180m for conversion neutrality measures this gas year. Monthly costs had not exceeded €84 million since last October until May and June when the figure rose to €233 million and €467 million respectively. These expenditures have already depleted the buffer to €158 million four months before start of the next gas year! BUT HOW?? German regulator Bundesnetzagentur (BNetzA) informed ICIS it was investigating the matter, also following reports from various sources indicating possible market manipulation via “unusual nomination activities by some market participants”. A trader suggested some of the suspicious activity could be related to over-nominations of L-gas imports from the Netherlands, causing THE to sell off German L-gas at a cheaper price could then be put into storage. Actual flows have turned out much lower than renominations recorded throughout summer so far (ENTSOG). On 10 June, for example, shippers renominated some 262GWh of TTF-THE L-gas but only 117GWh flowed.

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This is a really excellent new article from Professor Dieter Helm. It is appropriately detailed and technical, but worth reading the full version, but if even the conclusions (quoted below) can at the least get wider traction and understanding - if not by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, then surely by HM Treasury - then we may not be too late to course correct? In addition to the wider arguments, the article also makes clear that the obvious corollary of electricity prices being set mostly by gas being the highest marginal price, means that wholesale electricity prices will also go down as gas prices go down (which they are doing and supply / demand suggests they will continue to do so), but that continuing blindly driving on the current path of 95% renewables will even mean this benefit is squandered on the altar of ideological policy. "It is hard to conclude other than that the Secretary of State is deluded when he champions the 2030 net zero target as a route to lower costs of energy through ever-cheaper renewables. Rather, it reflects a conclusion seeking a cost measure that confirms it. The correct measure is system costs. The reality is that net zero by 2030 is expensive and that by dashing flat-out towards it, the result will be even higher costs. That points to an even more challenging reality: it is going to be expensive to decarbonise carbon consumption, and it is a delusion to think that having for so long not been paying the cost of the pollution our consumption is causing, by now paying for pollution, it is going to be all win–win. The price is not coming down, as heralded by the Secretary of State. It is going up, with a system requiring twice the generating capacity and much more transmission, lots of batteries and storage, and a great deal of back-up generation to keep the lights on, all to achieve the same amount of electricity. To think otherwise is to commit the broken windows fallacy – that by breaking windows, economic growth is increased. Replacing one set of windows with another is a net cost, and replacing the windows with more glass than was previously needed is a bigger cost still. It is time to be honest about the costs of the net zero target." Keir Starmer Rt Hon Rachel Reeves Claire Coutinho MP Kathryn Porter Simon French https://lnkd.in/dQXYEnPj

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