Dirk Paessler

GREAT NEWS: China's CO₂ is going down (for the first time in history) The world's biggest economy, and the 2nd biggest source of CO₂, just made history: China's CO₂ emissions have fallen in 2025, due to clean energy growth. Optimists say that this might be the "peak China." Why is this so significant? What happens in China will make or break our climate efforts. 🇨🇳 China burns half the world's coal 🇨🇳 China also delivers 40% of the world's renewables This really could be THE turning point. But the job's far from over. 🔥 Critics say China needs to move faster ⛏️ China's coal mines need to be phased out 🇺🇸 US is moving away from Paris Agreement (not to mention the human rights issues!) But one thing is clear: While some nations talk, others act. China is positioning itself as a climate superpower. The question is: who will follow? PS: thanks Vivi Sun for the inspiration #energy #circulareconomy #sustainability

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3 charts showing the growing price premium for high-quality NBS carbon credits. 1. $10/ton growth in 2025 for highly-rated ARR credits Average prices for afforestation and reforestation (ARR) credits rated BBB or above by Sylvera rose to $24/ton in September. That's up $10 since January of this year. 2. >40% premium for highly-rated NBS credits across project types Calyx Global data shows a very large price premium for nature-based carbon credits in its Tier 1 category (A-rating or above on the Calyx scale). Calyx/Clear Blue Markets pricing data for Tier 1 NBS projects began in May, 2024 and showed about a 40% premium over Tier 2 credits at that time. The chart shows this Tier 1 premium rising steadily since then, to about ~150% as of July of this year. This data is across all nature-based project types rated by Calyx, so includes both removals and reduction/avoidance projects. 3. AlliedOffsets The third chart, this one by AlliedOffsets, shows a very large spread between maximum estimated retired price for NBS credits vs weighted average, since Jan 2024. Though the chart isn't mapping this against a measure of project quality, it underscores the story in the previous two charts - that a few projects are selling for substantial premiums above average market prices. One takeaway: It's impressive to see the correlation between high ratings and price premiums. To me, it's unclear whether the ratings are causing the price premiums, or just reflecting what's happening (probably a little bit of both?). Either way, it underscores the big responsibility on ratings agencies to get it right !

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#Article6 / #CORSIA buy side insights and tips shared in the Sylvera and Climate Action Center of Excellence (CACE) webinar yesterday. 1. Key aspects when considering an Article 6 investment.   Start with the NDC - how clearly defined are the NDC targets? Are the targets conditional or unconditional. Is there a clear sectoral breakdown? Is the country serious about meeting its target and has it had sufficient climate finance?   At a minimum you need to check that your project type isn’t sat in an unconditional NDC, ideally it’s in the conditional NDC and on a whitelist.    Look for an Article 6 Framework, is there a clear understanding of the costs of a Corresponding Adjustment? Who has legal authority to issue a CA? Is there alignment between the framework, regulations, and the NDC? Did the country submit it's last Biannual Transparency Report on time, and does it have the capacity to meet future reporting obligations? Smart investors are in country capacity building as well as investing at a project level. If the project does have an LOA, look for or ask when the Initial Report is being published. The UNFCCC Technical Expert Review team will then identify and publish any inconsistencies on the Centralised Accounting and Reporting Platform (CARP). What do those inconsistencies mean to corporate buyers?    If I was investing, I would look for projects that are CORSIA eligible, that can deliver real reductions or removals within the current NDC cycle, and whose economics will continue to stack up in the absence of a CA beyond 2030.  2. Role for collaboration. The A6 market is in reality, many markets with a CA in common. Most A6 credits only have one use case that needs to be designed for upfront, this fragments the market. Due to different buyer criteria, A6 credits tend to work for only one country or CORSIA, they can't deliver into both. This creates a real headache for project developers and countries. They effectively need to pick a winning horse before it’s born.   To scale, we need a greater fungibility of A6 credits. This requires buyers -countries, corporates or schemes - to align in their criteria.    Country stakeholders could also form consortiums to share the cost of capacity building - and by that I don’t mean workshops, but support with reporting and compliance.  Some countries cant even afford to turn up to the negotiating table at Bonn/COP, so we need to make sure funding isn’t just for projects, but for the host countries to meet all the requirements to issue a robust CA and to deliver conditional NDCs. In an ideal world, if the promised conditional financing doesn’t materialise, a change in the rules to allow market mechanisms to fill the funding gap should be considered. For those that missed the webinar: https://lnkd.in/eAj2p5HV Francisco Rentería Alexandra Soezer Lisa Hendrickson Carbon Pulse Ing. Glenn Kwabena Gyimah (PhD) Carmen Álvarez Campo 🌿 Supanut Chotevitayatarakorn emsurge

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Should you purchase carbon credits from the Global South? Or locally in Europe? 🌍 Let your sustainability strategy be your guide. For instance: If your strategy emphasizes climate justice, consider supporting 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗮𝗹 𝗶𝗻 𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀. These projects: → Channel finance to countries facing the most extreme climate impacts → Take advantage of abundant land and biomass for scalability → Support co-benefits like economic growth and life on land At Rainbow, we’re incredibly proud to be working with our first carbon projects in Kenya, Nigeria, and Ghana: Tera, Releaf Earth (YC W19), and The Good Roll Africa 👏 But here’s another approach, one that’s sometimes underrated. If your strategy focuses on value chain decarbonization, consider supporting 𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝘃𝗼𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀. These projects: → Decarbonize high-emissions industries in your value chain → Tackle emissions in countries with the highest emissions → Support co-benefits like clean water and responsible consumption For example, ECS Group, a major player in airport logistics, made a multi-year agreement to purchase credits from Ecodair (a high-impact e-refurbishment project). This agreement directly supports ECS's value chain decarbonization goals, aligning with their sustainability strategy. 👏 - To be clear, there are high-quality removal and avoidance projects all around the world! These are just examples. As long as credits pass the quality threshold, you have many paths to real climate impact. Just remember: when you align credit purchases with your sustainability strategy, you’ll build a story you’re proud to share with the world. 🌈 - Image credit: global map of carbon removal projects from CDR.fyi

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🌡️ What happens if we exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C limit? and how do we bring temperatures back down? Overshoot is the term used for scenarios where global warming temporarily surpasses 1.5 °C before being lowered again through deep emission cuts and large-scale carbon removal. The first-ever international conference on climate overshoot was held in Laxenburg, Austria to explore one of the most uncomfortable questions in climate science. 🌱 Net-negative is the new net-zero. Limiting warming in the long term means removing more CO₂ than we emit. Yet, most countries still lack quantified net-negative targets. 🧪 Carbon removal is a necessity not a licence to delay. It must “enable ambition,” not excuse inaction, and we urgently need more knowledge about its risks, impacts, and equity dimensions. ⚖️ Overshoot has irreversible consequences. Even a temporary exceedance could trigger glacier melt, species extinction, and sea-level rise. A 0.1–0.3 °C overshoot could lead to 15 % more heat-related deaths this century. 📜 Ambition must remain high, and nations will likely be expected to go beyond net-zero. Delayed action today means heavier burdens and greater legal liability tomorrow. Communicating this reality is one of our greatest challenges. How do we explain that 1.5 °C remains the goal even if we cross it? The answer is by making it clear that overshoot is the emergency response to decades of insufficient action. 🌍 The message is sobering but empowering: We have not lost the fight but winning now requires removing as much as we emit, repairing what we’ve damaged, and protecting what we still can. The era of overshoot is not an excuse for delay. It’s a call to radical ambition — faster, fairer, and deeper than ever before. Read more the Carbon Brief coverage: https://lnkd.in/eHCCFD4g

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🌍 Carbon Pricing: Voluntary vs. Compliance Markets When it comes to carbon credits, not all markets are the same. Understanding the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) vs. the Compliance Carbon Market (CCM) is key for businesses, investors, and policymakers. 🔑 Takeaway: • VCM = flexible, lower price, but variable quality. • CCM = mandatory, regulated, higher price, and transparent. Both play a vital role in accelerating the global shift to a low-carbon economy. 🚀 #CarbonMarkets #Decarbonization #Sustainability #CarbonCredits #NetZero #ClimateFinance

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