Lukas Henckell

It’s encouraging to see the Austrian stock market performing strongly: the ATX Total Return surpassed the 11,000-point mark for the first time ever. As an investor in Austrian equities, it's perfectly fine to pause and cheer for a moment. But that's exactly what it is – a moment. Just like the many crises we've seen over the past two decades, this too will become part of a longer market story.   What truly matters – and what history keeps confirming – is this: in the long haul, equities remain the safest and most rewarding asset class. Not because they avoid volatility, but a well diversified portfolio outlasts it. That's why my advice to private investors is always the same: avoid the noise. Don't follow the markets daily, weekly or even monthly – neither the euphoric headlines nor the doomsday narratives. Focus on the long term, and let the capital market do what it does best: build value over time. In the case of the ATX including dividends, this means over 9% annualised since the beginning of 2001.   #capitalmarkets #investment #dividend

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Many investors bet Germany’s “whatever it takes” fiscal stimulus package and an enormous uplift in European defence spending would drive a prolonged upturn in the region’s equity markets. A BofA survey of fund managers showed allocations to Eurozone stocks leapt to their highest level since 2021 at the beginning of this year. But the outperformance was short lived. Strong earnings from the US mega caps have sent Wall Street stocks powering ahead again, despite Trump’s tariff onslaught and deteriorating US economic data. Weak second-quarter earnings in Europe have supported the growing view that the region’s stock rally is losing momentum. With more than half of the companies in the Stoxx Europe 600 having reported earnings, the index is on track for no earnings growth compared with a year ago, according to Bank of America, sapping optimism over a revival in the region’s equity markets. By contrast, the S&P 500 index’s constituents are on track to post 9 per cent year-on-year average earnings growth, according to BofA, powered largely by strong results from Silicon Valley’s tech giants and Wall Street banks. Source: Financial Times, LSEG

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The YTD performance of the German stock market remains impressive, no question about it. But it hasn‘t been as strong as one would think since May. The DAX index continues to move sideways, similar to the French CAC. The S&P 500, on the other hand, gained 13% in EUR terms over the same period (so including the USD effect). And the numbers from Spain and Italy look very strong since May. Please take a look at the shot below for all the details (performance of the respective price indices in EUR). Bergos AG Bankhaus C. L. Seeliger KG #investing #markets #stockmarket Source: Holger Zschäpitz/Die Welt (via X / link in the comments section), Bloomberg

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𝗗𝗲𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝘀 𝗜𝗻 𝗔𝘀𝘀𝗲𝘁 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗴𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 – 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗪𝗲’𝘃𝗲 𝗕𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗪𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗙𝗼𝗿. If you’re on the buy-side and still treating derivatives as something “𝘦𝘹𝘰𝘵𝘪𝘤” or "𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘲𝘶𝘢𝘯𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦"… this one’s for you. 👉 𝘋𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘴 𝘈𝘱𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘪𝘯 𝘈𝘴𝘴𝘦𝘵 𝘔𝘢𝘯𝘢𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵: 𝘍𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘰𝘳𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘗𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘦, Edited by Frank J. Fabozzi & Marielle de Jong . Just released by Springer: https://lnkd.in/ePRDBDyg Why am I excited about this? Because it tackles what too many books don’t: 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹-𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻. ✔️ Not just payoff diagrams. ✔️ Not just models in isolation. ✔️ But 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭 𝘦𝘹𝘢𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘦𝘴 of how to use derivatives to 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀 across portfolio construction, risk overlays, and capital efficiency. As someone who's spent years working with asset managers, insurers, and institutional PMs–this is the practical bridge between theory and the (sometimes messy) real world. A solid addition for PMs, CIOs, risk teams… and frankly, anyone who's tired of hearing “𝘸𝘦 𝘥𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘷𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦𝘴” as if that’s something to be proud of in 2025. The book covers applications across: • FX overlays • Options for downside protection • Interest rate strategies • Credit derivatives • Portfolio completion tools Many of the case studies align with the kind of work we do at Para Bellum – helping teams unlock capital and use derivatives to actually 𝘴𝘰𝘭𝘷𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘣𝘭𝘦𝘮𝘴, not just check boxes. Definitely one for the shelf. 🧠 Let’s normalise 𝘀𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 and enhancing knowledge. #ParaBellumAdvisors #ᴍᴀᴋᴇitʜᴀᴩᴩᴇɴ #mikeduncan #CapitalMarkets #Structuring #RiskManagement #LBFalumni #SkyHighTower

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Hello September! As much as September has one of the best weather seasonals in the US, it has the worst stock market seasonals of the year: a 1% loss on average for the S&P 500 over the past century. Beyond these technicals, we parse out key fundamental market signals in this week's Ahead of the Curve: - continued AI capex momentum, with Nvidia's CEO predicting annual spend on AI infrastructure of $3-4tr by the end of 2030 - an upward revision of 0.3% to US Q2 GDP growth by the Bureau of Economic Analysis - a declining interest rate path into next year, starting with a potential 25bps Fed Fund rate cut on Sep 17 Conditions that continue to make us constructive on the US equity and bond markets and that call for buying the dips in both asset classes. For more details on our investment takeaways, listen to our latest episode here: Apple Podcasts link:   https://lnkd.in/e5FDSU-F   Spotify link:      https://lnkd.in/egXEVmHW

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🚨 Meta shares just jumped 10% after smashing earnings! Here's the main takeaways: Q2 EPS $7.14 vs Exp. $5.92 Q2 Rev $47.52bn vs Exp. $44.80bn Q2 Net Income $18.34bn vs Exp. $15.3bn The company said Q3 sales will be $47.5bn to $50.5bn, that's well above Street avg. estimate of $46.2bn. Daily active people for Meta’s family of apps grew to 3.48bn vs Exp. 3.45bn In short, almost every metric was a beat. The nod that Meta capital expenditures will come in between $66bn and $72bn, raising the low end of the company’s previous estimate of $64 bn and $72bn, and the CFO adding a word of caution as we look ahead to the holiday quarter, was overlooked. Zuckerberg said Meta has the ability to spend aggressively to grow its slice of the AI market thanks to the company’s consistent advertising business. Shares now at a new all-time high. The Zuckerberg rebrand is complete.

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