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the need for futures markets in currencies


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布雷顿森林体系崩溃后,浮动汇率制取代了固定汇率制,由此产生了通过货币期货以套期保值规避风险的需求。芝加哥商业交易所(CME)密切关注这一机遇,董事长梅拉梅德于1971年转出拜访诺贝尔经济学奖得主弗里德曼博士。弗里德曼非常赞同当布雷顿森林体系瓦解时推出外汇期货,并于同年12月发表题为《货币需要期货市场》的论文,这极大地增强了CME开设外汇期货的决心与信心。CME随即着手组建国际货币市场分部(IMM),并于1972年5月16日正式推出英镑、加元、德国马克、日元、瑞士法郎、墨西哥比索及意大利里拉7种外汇期货合约。外汇期货顺应了浮动汇率制的需求,迅速成为交易最活跃的期货品种之一。

635
The Need for Futures Markets
in Currencies
Milton Friedman
Under the Bretton Woods system, the central banks of the world
undertook to keep the exchange rates of their currencies in terms of
the dollar within ⫾1 percent of the par value as determined by the
official values of gold registered with the International Monetary
Fund. In practice, the central banks generally kept the margins even
narrower: ⫾
1
⁄2 of 1 percent or ⫾
3
⁄4 of 1 percent. So long as they had
confidence that these limits would be maintained indefinitely, per-
sons engaged in foreign trade were subject to negligible risk from
fluctuations in exchange rates. Even so, large traders with sharp pen-
cils found it desirable to hedge any future transactions by buying for-
eign currencies forward to meet commitments coming due or selling
foreign currencies forward to match scheduled receipts. These for-
ward transactions were handled by the large commercial banks, often
with the active participation of foreign central banks in the forward
market.
Episodically, confidence that the par value could be maintained
waned. Whenever this occurred, there were major movements of
funds both in the spot and futures markets. Since there was seldom
any doubt which way the exchange rate would be changed, if it were
Cato Journal, Vol. 31, No. 3 (Fall 2011). Copyright © Cato Institute. All rights
reserved.
Milton Friedman taught at the University of Chicago for more than 30 years and
was a Senior Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution. In 1976, he was the recipi-
ent of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. This article was originally
prepared for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and is dated December 20, 1971.
The Cato Journal thanks Leo Melamed for permission to republish this important
contribution to U.S. intellectual and institutional history. Subheads have been added
by the editor.
31202_Ch18_Friedman.qxd 9/15/11 2:12 PM Page 635
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