Adani bull GQG buys more in 4 stocks, LIC stays the course but FIIs trim

With Sebi's clean chit in the Hindenburg case finally removing a crippling overhang that has weighed on the Adani Group since January 2023, two large institutional investors are sending a powerful signal: conviction in the conglomerate's recovery is hardening, not softening.

The September 2025 shareholding data paints a portrait of institutional confidence fractured along predictable lines. While foreign tactical investors continue trimming exposure, global conviction capital and domestic wealth are quietly stepping in.

GQG Partners, the Florida-headquartered asset manager that first entered Adani counters at the height of the group's valuation turmoil in 2023, has methodically added to positions across four key companies during the June-September quarter.

In ACC Ltd, GQG raised its stake from 4.57% to 4.70%. Adani Enterprises climbed from 4.16% to 4.21%. Adani Energy Solutions moved from 3.40% to 3.52%. And in Ambuja Cements, GQG's position jumped sharply from 1.35% to 2.05% — a 52% increase in its holding that signals heightened conviction in cement's near-term tailwinds.

Also Read | Chris Wood of Jefferies sells Reliance Industries shares to buy Adani stock

Market observers see GQG's persistence as emblematic of its contrarian playbook — a focus on high-conviction names that have endured regulatory or perceptual challenges but continue to deliver operationally.

State-owned LIC, which has held Adani stakes far longer than probably any other offshore investor, stayed on course during the quarter. Its 9.95% stake in ACC rose from 9.11% in June. In Adani Energy Solutions, the insurer maintained a steady 3.42% position. Adani Enterprises remained flat at 4.16%. Adani Green Energy held at 1.30%. The only material trim came in Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone, where LIC's holding eased from 8.14% to 7.73% — a minor 41 basis point reduction that likely reflects portfolio-wide balancing rather than sentiment deterioration.

However, FIIs trimmed meaningfully across the board to display tactical rebalancing even as regulatory certainty has improved.

In ACC, FII holdings fell from 5.05% to 4.66%. Adani Energy Solutions saw FIIs reduce from 13.06% to 15.85%, representing a 279 basis point exit. Adani Enterprises remained relatively stable. Adani Ports edged down. Adani Power saw FIIs cut from 12.46% to 11.53%. Even Adani Total Gas experienced minor outflows.

Sebi's clean chit last month lifted a regulatory shadow that has distorted Adani valuations since the January 2023 Hindenburg allegations. That short-seller report had accused the conglomerate of "accounting fraud" and "stock manipulation," triggering a catastrophic market crash that wiped over $100 billion in market value at its peak. The allegations sparked broader questions about corporate governance standards among Indian business houses and investigations that have now concluded.

Also Read | Mukesh Ambani, Gautam Adani clash in battle of Kutch. Who will win multi-billion dollar green goldmine?

The regulatory certainty has already attracted high-profile backing. Last month, emerging markets investment guru Chris Wood of Jefferies sold Reliance Industries (RIL) shares to buy Adani Group-owned Ambuja Cement shares in his India long-only portfolio — a striking reallocation that reflects conviction in the cement story, particularly post-GST rate cut from 28% to 18% effective September 22.

Meanwhile, UK-based Investec recently initiated coverage on Adani Ports with a buy rating and a ₹1,715 target price. The brokerage's analysis suggests the stock's current valuation is justified by discounted cash flow of existing ports and businesses alone, while the company's strong balance sheet offers significant optionality for future growth. Investec expects Adani Ports to generate operating cash flow exceeding ₹1 trillion over FY25-30 — more than sufficient to cover projected capital expenditure of ₹700 billion and drive continued deleveraging. Net gearing has already moderated from 1.5 times a decade ago to 0.6 times as of March 2025 and is projected to become negligible by FY30.

Together, the moves of GQG, LIC, and emerging analyst coverage present a nuanced but unmistakable picture: institutional engagement with the Adani Group is stratifying along conviction lines. While mutual funds and tactical foreign money continue sporadic rebalancing and outflows, conviction capital, represented by GQG's quiet accumulation and LIC's steady hand, remains steady pillars of ownership.

(Data: Ritesh Presswala)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)