Paris pledges would curb extreme heat but climate goals at risk

New scientific research has underlined the importance of the Paris climate accord in curbing extreme heat, just as fears grow that the goals of the landmark agreement will be missed.

The emissions cuts pledged in 2015 moderated the planet’s warming trajectory to 2.6C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, from previous forecasts of as much as 4C, according to new research from Climate Central and World Weather Attribution.

That translates into an average of 57 days with the most extreme heat, instead of 114 days under the original warming path, the scientists found. Extreme heat is one of the deadliest weather hazards, fueling droughts, floods and wildfires and causing billions of dollars in economic damages.

The seemingly small differences in the numbers represent the “life and death of thousands of people,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and one of the report’s authors.
The findings come as officials in the UK and the European Union raise doubts over whether enough is being done to meet the targets set out in Paris a decade ago. Those concerns will be debated at the COP30 climate summit in the Brazilian city of Belém next month.

The Paris agreement commits countries to hold global warming below 2C, and ideally 1.5C. That’s likely to fail, according to the UK’s official climate committee, which has warned the country to prepare for warming of as much as 4C by the end of the century.
The UK has been a leader in reducing emissions of planet-warming greenhouse gases, but government climate officials say the political consensus for green policies is fracturing. The EU is facing a similar schism and missed a September deadline on a 2035 emissions-cutting pledge, with member states divided over the scope and conditions of reductions.

The scientists from Climate Central and World Weather Attribution also warned that more needs to be done to limit extreme heat and ensure that warming is kept below the 2C threshold.

“The progress is uneven,” said report co-author Roop Singh, head of urban and attribution at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. “Overall there is a need for greater efforts to put plans and policies into action and to finance these solutions.”

Separate research from the University of East Anglia, UK environment agencies and government forecasters published Thursday found that $215 billion in physical assets were exposed to wildfires last year, with $140 billion in insured losses from the Los Angeles fires alone.