Global Markets Slip as Investors Brace for US Data Deluge

Global equity markets extended their cautious tone on Thursday, with US futures and European benchmarks edging lower as investors braced for a heavy slate of US macroeconomic data and a $44 billion Treasury auction. Safe-haven assets like gold inched higher while oil prices reversed gains, underscoring the market’s fragile balance between growth concerns, monetary policy uncertainty, and shifting commodity dynamics.

Wall Street Extends Losses, Futures Edge Lower

U.S. futures were slightly down in early European trading after two consecutive days of declines on Wall Street. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.3% on Wednesday, while the Dow slipped 0.4%, dragged by financial heavyweights Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

The day ahead is loaded with market-moving catalysts: durable goods orders, weekly jobless claims, the third estimate of Q2 GDP, and existing home sales. Adding to the complexity, several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, with investors looking for signals on the policy path.

• S&P 500 futures: –0.1%
• Dow futures: –0.1%
• Nasdaq futures: –0.1%

Europe: Earnings Surprises and Defense Sector Pullback

The pan-European Stoxx 600 opened 0.5% lower, with declines across most national bourses. The FTSE 100 fell 0.4%, dragged down by defense contractors after Wednesday’s rally linked to President Trump’s Ukraine comments. London-listed Babcock dropped 1.5% despite issuing a positive update.

Not all sectors were under pressure. Swedish retailer H&M surged 8.7% after quarterly earnings beat expectations, offering a rare bright spot amid cautious sentiment. Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank held policy steady at 0%, ending a streak of six consecutive rate cuts, reinforcing expectations that Europe’s rate cycle is approaching its floor.

Commodities: Copper Surge, Oil Retreats, Gold Near Highs

Commodity markets delivered contrasting signals. Copper prices jumped after Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) declared force majeure at a major mine, sending London Metal Exchange futures to their highest level in more than a year. The move boosted miners such as Rio Tinto (+2.1%), Glencore (+0.9%), and Anglo American (+1%).

By contrast, crude oil retreated after Wednesday’s gains, reflecting renewed concerns about weak demand despite tighter supplies. Brent slipped 0.6% to $68.05, while WTI fell 0.7% to $64.54.

Gold, meanwhile, continued to hover near record levels. Futures rose 0.1% to $3,773.70/oz, supported by a softer U.S. dollar and strong central bank demand. ETF inflows remain a key driver as investors hedge against both policy and geopolitical risks.

• Copper futures: +1.0%, highest in 12+ months
• Brent crude: –0.6% to $68.05
• WTI crude: –0.7% to $64.54
• Gold: +0.1% to $3,773.70/oz

Bonds and FX: Treasury Auction in Focus

Treasury yields edged lower as investors positioned for today’s $44 billion 7-year auction. The 10-year yield fell 0.6 bps to 4.14%, while the 30-year slipped 1.4 bps to 4.74%. Demand at the auction will be closely watched as a barometer of investor appetite amid heavy issuance and persistent fiscal concerns.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) eased 0.1% to 97.80, retreating from a two-week high of 97.92. While the dollar has traded in a tight range recently, the debate over Fed independence and mixed economic data could increase volatility in the coming weeks.

Asia: Mixed Picture Reflects Diverging Fundamentals

Asian equity markets closed mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 advanced 0.3%, underpinned by tech shares, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.3% on renewed weakness in property stocks. Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite ended broadly flat, reflecting investor caution as Beijing continues to calibrate stimulus measures.

Investor Takeaways: Fragile Balance Between Growth and Policy

Markets are treading water ahead of critical U.S. releases and Fed commentary. With equities softening, yields drifting lower, and gold holding near highs, positioning reflects heightened uncertainty about growth, policy, and geopolitics.

Risks and Opportunities:

• Bullish scenario: Stronger-than-expected U.S. data could restore confidence in growth resilience, supporting equities while keeping oil and copper demand steady.
• Bearish scenario: Weak data, combined with hawkish Fed rhetoric, could drive a deeper equity pullback, a stronger dollar, and renewed pressure on cyclical commodities.
• Hedging flows: Elevated gold and Treasury demand highlight persistent appetite for safe havens, signaling that volatility is unlikely to ease in the near term.

Bottom line: Investors face a volatile session where U.S. data and Fed communication will dictate sentiment across equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies. Maintaining diversified positioning remains critical in navigating this uncertain backdrop.