By 2075, space flight will be as routine as catching a commercial flight is today, according to the Royal Society. Science fiction is rapidly becoming reality, driven by technological breakthroughs, plummeting costs, and an accelerating space race that extends beyond borders. While this throws open a new frontier, it also creates significant legal and governance challenges.
The industrial revolution, which began in late 18th-century Britain, massively scaled up humanity’s capacity to manufacture, store and export goods around the world.
Today, the implications of being able to launch massive payloads into space are as substantial – if not more so.
For the first 50-60 years of the Space Age, getting to orbit was the exclusive domain of government institutions, driven by enormous budgets and national pride. Exploration and applications were restricted by the sometimes-prohibitive cost of launching volume and mass into space.
Now, private companies are rewriting the rules. Elon Musk’s SpaceX reusable launchers have transformed what was once months of preparation into a routine operation every few days – and others are following his example. Governments and regulators are struggling to keep pace, while the public remains largely unaware of the implications.
In the very short term, we may see communications revolutionised, as Starlink and AST SpaceMobile provide direct satellite-to-mobile cell services.
Our global energy budget could potentially receive a substantial boost. Large solar arrays and small nuclear reactors launched into orbit may generate clean, flexible power to use in space or beamed back to Earth.
In terms of expending that energy, energy-intensive industries currently bound to Earth could relocate to orbit. Data centres may be moved from Siberia to space, using solar power and dissipating heat into the cold vacuum of deep space rather than contributing to global warming. We may eventually see ‘Made in Space’ labels sit alongside ‘Made in China’, as manufacturing moves into orbit beyond terrestrial constraints.
We could see research and development potential unshackled. Laboratories in microgravity environments may enable research impossible on Earth, from pharmaceutical development to materials science. The unique conditions of space offer opportunities for innovation we're only beginning to understand.
There is also a significant natural-resources opportunity. Some parts of space are more valuable than others – for example, the Moon has areas where there are continuous peaks of sunlight. Other areas are rich in minerals.
And what about orbital real estate? Exploration – to Mars and other planets – may offer the opportunity for permanent settlement, ensuring that humanity would survive if a comet or asteroid hit Earth.
This unprecedented resource and resettlement opportunity is no doubt a massive boon. “The biggest mistake that the dinosaurs made was not having a space programme” said Neil deGrasse Tyson, an astrophysicist. Our forays into space underpin efforts for the survival of humankind.
Yet it also presents a universal challenge for lawyers, politicians and policymakers. Space exploration is currently a landgrab, with geostationary orbit in high demand. There is no precedent for legislating its access. Conflicts that begin in space could play out back on Earth.
It will take the best efforts of global diplomats and scientists to ensure that tensions over lunar landscapes and the cosmos don’t further destabilise the fractious geopolitical terrain back on our home planet.
This article was inspired by a talk by Sir Martin Sweeting at the Man Alternative Investment Symposium.
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