According to industry analysts, the typical peak shipping season has turned on its head, with the freight surge occurring months earlier than usual, and leaving carriers facing a different fourth quarter landscape.
“We actually think we’ve already seen peak season, certainty on the import containerized front. That occurred in July where record volumes on imported containers were recorded,” said Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics. “Our view is the majority of holiday season inventory is already positioned in warehouse distribution markets ready for final-mile delivery.”
The National Retail Federation noted a similar assessment. “This year’s peak season has come and gone, largely due to retailers frontloading imports ahead of reciprocal tariffs taking effect,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.
The numbers highlighted this: According to the Global Port Tracker, U.S. ports handled 2.39 million TEU in July. In contrast, October is forecast at just 1.97 million TEU, with November expected to drop 19.2% and December projected to hit 1.72 million TEU.
This shift is driven by tariff-related distortions, said Avery Vise, FTR vice president of trucking.
“Due to tariff-related distortions, some of the strength that usually occurs in September and October appears to have occurred already, so we believe peak arrived earlier than usual,” Vise said.
Gold emphasized an ongoing challenge. “Most retailers are well-stocked for the holiday season and doing as much as they can to shield their customers from the costs of tariffs for as long as they can.”
