Eduardo Vieira

In the latest "Born to Disrupt" episode, I speak with Mark Walker and Simon Hardie and dive into the MENA venture capital landscape. In this podcast, I elaborate on the similarities and differences between the venture capital landscapes in Southeast Asia and the MENA region, and cite examples of companies relocating to the Middle East to tap into its burgeoning tech ecosystem, driven by government initiatives and a focus on sectors like AI, data centres, and healthcare. The conversation touches on the challenges and opportunities of investing in the Middle East, emphasizing the importance of targeting top-tier players within specific markets and the potential for companies to expand regionally and globally. Thanks to the DISRUPTS team for having me on the show. Link to the podcast here https://lnkd.in/gU3_PQPN

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🚀 The AI Revolution: Where MENA Stands and What’s Next for the World The global AI market is projected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2030, transforming industries at an unprecedented pace. But where does the MENA region stand in this revolution, and what can we expect in the coming years? 🔍 AI in MENA: Accelerating Growth The Middle East and North Africa are rapidly embracing AI, with governments and businesses investing heavily: The UAE’s National AI Strategy 2031 aims to make it a global leader in AI governance and adoption. Saudi Arabia’s NEOM and The Line are integrating AI into smart city infrastructure. Egypt and Morocco are emerging as key hubs for AI talent and startups. According to PwC, AI could contribute $320 billion to the MENA economy by 2030, with the UAE and KSA leading the charge. 🌍 Global AI Trends Shaping the Future Generative AI Boom – Tools like ChatGPT and Midjourney are redefining creativity and productivity. AI in Healthcare – Predictive diagnostics and personalized medicine are saving lives. Ethical AI & Regulation – The EU’s AI Act and global debates on bias, privacy, and job displacement are critical. AI-Driven Sustainability – Optimising energy, agriculture, and smart cities to combat climate change. 💡 What’s Next? The next decade will be defined by: ✔ Hyper-automation across industries ✔ AI-first policymaking in governments ✔ MENA as a key player in AI innovation #ArtificialIntelligence #MENA #FutureOfWork #Innovation #DigitalTransformation #AI

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Abu Dhabi just invested in Häagen-Dazs In October 2025, the (Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) — the world’s 3rd-largest sovereign wealth fund, managing around US $ 1.05 trillion in assets — made a strategic entry into the global consumer market. ADIA co-invested € 1.4 billion (≈ AED 5.5 billion) in Froneri, the world’s #2 ice-cream producer behind Häagen-Dazs, Cadbury, Milka, and Oreo frozen desserts The € 3.6 billion recapitalization, led by PAI Partners and Goldman Sachs Alternatives, valued Froneri at ~€ 15 billion (≈ US $ 17.6 billion) one of Europe’s largest continuation-vehicle deals this year Nestlé retains ~50 %, with ADIA as a strategic minority co-investor Verified Facts — 2025 Froneri Today • Operates in 25 countries • Employs 12,000 people • Produces 1,500 SKUs across world-leading brands 2023 Financials (confirmed): • Revenue: €5.29 B (+4.3 % YoY) • EBITDA: €966 M (+16 % YoY) • Operating Profit: €530 M (+28 % YoY) • Net Assets: €1.47 B (+9 % YoY) • Like-for-like growth: 8.5 % (vs 7.2 % global retail benchmark) • Branded share: ≈ 87 % of total sales It’s now the #2 ice-cream producer globally (after Unilever). The Global Frozen-Dessert Economy • Market size (2025): ≈ US $ 120 B • 2035 forecast: ≈ US $ 216 B → CAGR ~6 % • Ice-cream segment: US $ 92 B → US $ 140 B by 2033 (CAGR 6.7 %) • Asia-Pacific: 37 % of global demand (fastest-growing region) • Europe: €25 B (+3 % annual growth) • U.S.: US $ 15.8 B → US $ 20.4 B by 2032 (CAGR 4.3 %) • Premium category: 8–9 % CAGR • Plant-based & functional: 10 % CAGR Supporting ecosystems • Cold-chain logistics: US $ 286 B (2023) → US $ 475 B (2032) (CAGR 5.6 %) • Global dairy trade: ≈ US $ 85 B (2024) • Packaging & storage: ≈ US $ 110 B (2024) Why ADIA Invested in Froneri 1. Diversification – From cyclical assets to daily-consumption economies 2. Resilience – Low-ticket luxury; 2020 retail –5 %, ice cream < 3 % 3. Brand Power – Häagen-Dazs, Oreo, Cadbury, Milka ≈ €200 M / yr (est.) 4. Infrastructure – Global cold-chain network critical to food security 5. Long-Cycle Play – Continuation vehicle = compounding + downside control 6. Soft Power – Capital turned into cultural presence through global brands Outlook & Projections (2025 → 2030) • Revenue growth: +5–8 % CAGR • EBITDA margin: 19–20 % by 2027 • Free cash yield: 8–12 % of revenue • Leverage: Net debt / EBITDA ≈ 6–7× → target <5× by 2027 • Input costs: Milk +15 %, Sugar +9 %, Energy +12 % • FX risk: EUR / GBP ±4 % impact • Climate risk: Cool summer → –5 % EU sales • Projected revenue 2026: ≈ €6.4 B • Projected EBITDA 2030: ≥ €1 B The Sovereign Insight ADIA’s move into Froneri isn’t about ice cream — it’s about owning behavior. Energy built the world Technology connects it Consumption sustains it Abu Dhabi’s next play: from oil, to AI, to appetite. Own what people can’t stop using and turn behavior into sovereign yield. Häagen-Dazs is just the flavor Economic resilience is the investment

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𝐒𝐚𝐮𝐝𝐢 𝐅𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐎𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦 𝐌𝐚𝐩 🇸🇦 A visual snapshot of the institutions shaping the Kingdom’s role in global capital markets. Saudi family offices collectively manage over USD 500 billion in assets, representing one of the largest pools of private capital in the MENA region. Historically operating within private networks as quiet stewards of generational wealth, these entities are now evolving into institutional-grade platforms, increasingly comparable to their global peers. 📊 Key Trends Driving Change • Global Allocation: Over 60% of Saudi family offices have expanded into international markets, compared to just 25% a decade ago. • Alternative Investments: More than USD 80 billion is now allocated to private equity, venture capital, and real assets. • Next-Gen Leadership: By 2030, nearly 70% of Saudi family offices are expected to be led by second or third-generation members, who are prioritizing fintech, sustainability, and impact investing. • Professionalization: Around 55% of family offices have already institutionalized governance structures, investment committees, and cross-border co-investment frameworks. This evolution means their activity is no longer confined to local markets. Saudi family offices are emerging as anchor investors in global private equity funds, venture capital syndicates, and strategic co-investments — reshaping capital flows across industries from energy and real estate to AI, healthcare, and green tech. As new leaders take the helm, priorities are shifting from traditional wealth preservation to future-oriented strategies, aligning with Vision 2030 and the Kingdom’s ambition to be a global investment powerhouse.

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Over the past five years, the Middle East has established itself as a proven and attractive technology hub. Today, there are 14 unicorns in the region, 9 in Saudi Arabia, and 5 in the UAE. However, in our 2022 STV Insight Report “From Startup to IPO,” we projected around 20 unicorns by now, including 11 in Saudi Arabia. Moreover, when measured by VC deployment as a share of GDP, the region still lags behind global benchmarks, signaling untapped potential. We see a healthy pipeline of high-potential tech ventures ready to scale. What remains missing are more regional-native growth-stage VCs and greater capital allocation to them. The gap identified in our 2023 STV Insight Report, “Mind the Gap,” still persists. https://lnkd.in/dzhhxY3u While mature, late-stage companies such as Tabby can attract global investors, identifying and supporting promising Series B ventures requires local VCs with deep market insight and proximity to founders, those best positioned to elevate the next generation of winners.

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Another UAE-Egypt massive success story. Can’t wait to see ADNOC Drilling ticker live on Thndr! Egyptian startup Thndr, with a base in Abu Dhabi’s Hub71, becomes Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange’s first remote retail trading member, empowering over four million users to invest directly in the UAE. ADX became the first exchange in the GCC to welcome Thndr. ADX is the second largest exchange and the best performing in the MENA region, and among the top 20 in the world with close to $1T market value. It has outperformed the MSCI Emerging Markets Index over the past decade and global indices over the past 20 years. Super privileged to have it as the home of ADNOC Drilling’s stock. Thndr is regulated by the ADGM’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority. In 2024 alone, it recorded over $13 billion in trading value and executed 12 million trades. With access to three markets – the UAE, Egypt, and the U.S. – and a wide range of asset classes, including stocks, gold, mutual funds, and savings products, Thndr is building a true investment one-stop shop. Abdulla Alnuaimi CEO of ADX, said: “ADX onboarding Thndr is a transformative step in creating tangible trading bridges across tge region’a capital markets”. “Retail investors deserve access to a grade-A investment service. This partnership gives our users the chance to invest in one of the region’s strongest-performing markets over the past 5, 10, and 15 years, while also opening doors to exposure within MENA through Tabadul as well as beyond MENA. As an Egyptian founder, this moment is personal, it’s about building on the historic ties between Egypt and the UAE and creating new bridges for our communities to grow, invest, and win together,” said Ahmad Hammouda, Co-founder and CEO of Thndr. “The entire Thndr team worked as a united front with ADX, FSRA, Hub71, Emirates NBD, and e& to clear major hurdles and ultimately make it simple for local and foreign individuals to participate in the UAE’s impressive growth story. This collaboration truly showcases why the UAE, with ADGM at the forefront, is a beacon of progress for the region,” said Seif Amr, Thndr’s Co- founder and Board Member.

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Saudi Arabia’s 2026 Budget: A Clear Path to Resilient Growth Saudi Arabia has unveiled its preliminary budget for 2026, highlighting a financial framework that reflects both economic resilience and forward-looking ambition. 🔅 Key Economic Outlook ▪️ Real GDP is projected to grow by 4.6%, fueled by non-oil activities expanding at 5%. ▪️ Revenues are estimated at 1,147 billion riyals ($305.9 billion) against expenditures of 1,313 billion riyals ($350.1 billion), with a fiscal deficit of 3.3% of GDP. ▪️ Inflation is expected to remain steady at 2.3%, while unemployment among Saudis has already declined to 6.8% in Q2 2025—achieving a core Vision 2030 target ahead of schedule. 🔅 Strategic Fiscal Policy ▪️ The government continues its counter-cyclical expansionary spending, directing resources toward high-impact projects with economic and social returns. ▪️ Fiscal sustainability is reinforced through a balanced approach of debt management, domestic and international financing, and alternative funding solutions. 🔅 Vision 2030 – Phase Three ▪️ Starting in 2026, the Kingdom enters the third phase of Vision 2030—one focused on accelerated execution, deepened structural reforms, and expanding growth opportunities. ▪️ This phase underscores Saudi Arabia’s commitment to transforming its economic base, empowering the private sector, and enhancing resilience against global volatility. 🔅 Long-Term Perspective ▪️ Expenditures are set to rise to 1,419 billion riyals ($378.1 billion) by 2028, matched by revenue growth to 1,294 billion riyals ($344.8 billion). ▪️ Fiscal deficits are projected to narrow gradually as structural reforms and diversified investments strengthen the Kingdom’s economic foundations. Saudi Arabia’s 2026 budget is more than a fiscal plan—it is a roadmap for sustainable growth, global competitiveness, and long-term economic resilience. #SaudiArabia #Budget2026 #Vision2030 #EconomicGrowth #FiscalPolicy #GlobalEconomy #MiddleEast #Sustainability #PublicFinance #NonOilEconomy

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