We introduce a probabilistic formalism handling both Markov random fields of bounded tree width and probabilistic context-free grammars. Our models are based on case-factor diagrams (CFDs) which are similar to binary decision diagrams (BDDs) but are more concise for circuits of bounded tree width. A probabilistic model consists of a CFD defining a feasible set of Boolean assignments and a weight (or cost) for each individual Boolean variable. We give versions of the inside–outside algorithm and the Viterbi algorithm for these models.