SteelData

World Crude Steel Production Falls 1.6% in January-September; Strongest Production Growth in India (10.5%), Sharpest Contraction in Germany (10.7%); US Turns Positive With the Support of Section 232 Tariffs; Production Declines in 7 of the Top 10 Producers According to data published by the World Steel Association (worldsteel): ⭕ World crude #steel production decreased by 1.6% in September and the January-September period. ⭕ EU crude steel production, which fell by 4.5% to 10.1 million tons in September, remained at 94.6 million tons, a 3.7% decrease in the first nine months. ⭕ China, which produced 73.6 million tons of crude steel in September, a 4.6% decrease, reached 746 million tons of crude steel production in the first nine months of the year, a 2.9% decrease. ⭕ Production in India, the world's second-largest steel producer, increased by 13.5% in September and reached to 122.4 million tons, a 10.5% increase in the January-September period. ⭕ US production continues to rise, supported by the Section 232 import tariffs, which has been raised to 50%. US crude steel production, which increased by 6.7% to 6.9 million tons in September, increased by 2.1% to 61.4 million tons in the January-September period. ⭕ In the first nine months of the year, the strongest production increase was observed in India (10.5%), and the sharpest production decline was observed in Germany (10.7%). ⭕ Among the world's top 10 steel producers, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, Germany, Brazil, and Iran saw production declines in the first nine months, while only India, US, and Türkiye saw production increase.

There is No Potential Scrap Shortage in the EU – Stainless Espresso According to the JRC’s new study, “EU Steel supply chain: Characterisation & use of EU steel scrap in relation to global trade dimensions“, the European Union has become the world’s largest exporter of steel scrap, holding a market share of 30%. In 2024, around 16.2 million tonnes of scrap were exported out of the EU, the analysts found. No scrap shortage in the EU The JRC clearly states that there is no potential scrap shortage in the European Union. Despite recurring political claims of scarcity, the data show the opposite: the EU exports millions of tonnes annually, simply because domestic demand is insufficient. Too few consumers for steel scrap There are several reasons for this significant level of export. The most important one: there are too few consumers of scrap among the 27 Member States. A large part of crude steel in the EU is still produced via the CO₂-intensive primary steel route, which only allows for a very limited share of scrap in downstream converters. As a result, demand for scrap remains low. Quality of EU scrap remains limited Another factor is the limited quality of EU scrap. So-called Q3 and Q4 grades, conventional post-consumer and low-quality scrap, account for around 72% of all scrap generated in the Union. This means that most of the recycled material is not suitable for primary steel producers, who reject it for quality reasons. Producers of automotive steel, for example, cannot use such material because of its high copper content. This is also reflected in trade data: only 4% of exports consist of high-quality pre-consumer scrap, while the majority is made up of lower-grade scrap. Copper in steel scrap: a long-known issue The presence of copper in steel scrap is a long-known but often politically ignored problem. Many EU primary steelmakers, especially those producing for the automotive industry, must comply with strict limits on copper content to maintain product quality. Export restrictions would harm recycling businesses As long as the quality of EU scrap does not improve and copper levels remain high, exports will stay elevated. Therefore, restricting scrap exports makes little to no sense, it would only harm the business model of small and medium-sized recycling companies across Europe. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/ddDqCA-m

Thorsten Gerber, CEO of Gerber Group (Gerber Steel GmbH): "New Safeguard System Will Destroy Europe's Industrial Backbone" 🎤 “What is being presented as industrial protection will, in reality, destroy Europe’s industrial backbone” 🎤 “The Commission is basing its proposal on false assumptions about overcapacity, has skipped an essential economic impact assessment, and is placing the burden entirely on SMEs, the very companies that keep Europe’s economy running.” 🎤 "The new safeguard system annouced on 7 October would effectively exclude SMEs from the #steel market, while a handful of large corporations would dominate access to remaining quotas" 🎤 "If implemented, the measure could raise production costs by up to 30% for the European manufacturing sector, especially in Central and Eastern European countries. Industries such as automotive, construction and mechanical engineering would be hit hardest" 🎤 “Europe must protect those who carry it – its SMEs. The proposed regulation must be stopped in its current form, and a full, transparent impact assessment must be conducted. SMEs need a guaranteed exemption from tariffs and quotas to maintain access to competitively priced steel.” https://lnkd.in/dTM2uqwQ

If Free EU CO2 Certificates Stay, CBAM Has to Go – Stainless Espresso The end of the free allocation of EU ETS certificates had, in fact, already been decided. Starting in 2026, the indirect multi-billion-euro subsidies for CO2 emissions are to be phased out gradually by 2034. However, major CO2 emitters in the EU have for some time been campaigning for the continuation of free EU ETS allocations beyond 2034. Their main argument, as always: climate targets cannot otherwise be met; #renewable #energy and #green #hydrogen remain insufficient. If free #CO2 certificates are abolished, they say, the competitiveness of affected industries would suffer. Particularly European steelmakers have a strong interest in the continuation of free allocations, as they have benefited the most from them since 2005 – and still do today. Will the EU Council Decide on the Future of the Certificates on Thursday? On 23 October, the European Council, the assembly of all 27 EU member states, may decide on whether to continue these indirect subsidies through the EU ETS. This decision would also, in effect, determine the future of the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). If Free Certificates Remain, CBAM Is No Longer WTO-Compliant One of the core conditions for the WTO-compliant introduction of CBAM on 1 January 2026, is the phase-out of European CO2 subsidies. Otherwise, a situation of double taxation and unfair competition would arise for importing companies. This could trigger a wave of lawsuits – not only before the World Trade Organization, but also within the EU itself. Such a dispute would come at a time when the EU is trying to re-regulate its internal market and reduce trade barriers and unfair competition between member states. EU Steel Tariffs Already Pose a Problem for CBAM CBAM already rests on shaky ground, as the CO2 tariff should not be applied simultaneously with other trade measures – again, due to the issue of double taxation. The expiry of the EU safeguard measures on certain steel products was one of the preconditions for introducing a permanent, WTO-compliant CBAM. However, since the European Commission recently proposed to raise #steel tariffs to 50% and drastically cut import quotas, CBAM, if the Commission’s proposal goes through, would no longer be applicable to steel imports at all. Those who strongly advocate free trade, insist on compliance with international agreements, and constantly demand a level playing field must, in all consistency, also repeal their own unlawful measures. Therefore: If the free EU ETS allocation is extended, the CO2 tariff CBAM must be abolished. https://lnkd.in/dWFbJFa2

Brussels’ Steel Tariff Proposal Puts Europe’s Industrial Backbone at Risk – Press Release The European Commission’s new draft regulation on the successor to the EU Safeguard Measure on certain #steel products is triggering strong criticism from European industry representatives. According to Gerber Steel GmbH (Gerber Group), the proposal presented on 7 October 2025 poses an existential threat to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across Europe. What is being presented as industrial protection will, in reality, destroy Europe’s industrial backbone “What is being presented as industrial protection will, in reality, destroy Europe’s industrial backbone,” warns Thorsten Gerber, CEO of Gerber Group. “The Commission is basing its proposal on false assumptions about overcapacity, has skipped an essential economic impact assessment, and is placing the burden entirely on SMEs, the very companies that keep Europe’s economy running.” The Commission’s plan foresees doubling import tariffs on steel to 50% and cutting import quotas (TRQs) by 45%. According to the company’s analysis, this would effectively exclude SMEs from the steel market, while a handful of large corporations would dominate access to remaining quotas. If implemented, the measure could raise production costs by up to 30% for the European manufacturing sector, especially in Central and Eastern European countries. Industries such as automotive, construction and mechanical engineering would be hit hardest. Gerber Group calls on the European Parliament and Member States to act immediately: “Europe must protect those who carry it – its SMEs,” Gerber urges. “The proposed regulation must be stopped in its current form, and a full, transparent impact assessment must be conducted. SMEs need a guaranteed exemption from tariffs and quotas to maintain access to competitively priced steel.” The company’s Position Paper “Successor to the EU Safeguard Measure on Certain Steel Products” has been submitted to the European Parliament and the German Bundestag. It calls for an SME exemption, a review of the Commission’s data on steel overcapacity, and a full impact assessment to ensure supply security and fair competition. https://lnkd.in/dTM2uqwQ

Thyssenkrupp in 'intensive' talks with Jindal over sale of steel unit The sale of the steel unit remains the most critical part of Lopez's restructuring agenda for the storied German firm, Thyssenkrupp is in intensive talks with Jindal Steel International over the Indian group's interest in its steel business, the German conglomerate's CEO said, calling it "good cooperation" but signalling discussions could take a while. Jindal Steel International last month made an indicative bid for Thyssenkrupp Steel Europe (TKSE), Europe's second-largest steelmaker, to strengthen its foothold on the continent, in what could result in a sale of the business that has long been sought by management. "Talks are ongoing - very intensively," CEO Miguel Lopez told Reuters at the Frankfurt stock exchange, where he was attending the stock market debut of the TKMS naval vessels unit, which was spun off from Thyssenkrupp. "We'll see what outcome we'll have over the next few months," he said, adding it was Thyssenkrupp's goal to restructure steel and thoroughly assess the offer by Jindal, which brings with it investment commitments for a major green steel site. The sale of the steel unit remains the most critical part of Lopez's restructuring agenda for the storied German firm, as several efforts to divest the business have failed in recent years - mostly because of substantial pension liabilities tied to it. As a result of the Jindal offer, Thyssenkrupp and Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky ended long-standing talks over a 50:50 steel joint venture. https://lnkd.in/dEkWhNKG

📊 2025-9m: Erdemir Group Achieves $62 Million in Profit, Drops by 81.5%yoy Erdemir Group announced its financial and operational indicators for the first nine months of the year. In the first nine months of the year, ⭕ Erdemir Group's liquid #steel production decreased by 11.7%, from 6.74 million tons to 5.95 million tons. ⭕ Capacity utilization rate, which was 89% for the full year of 2024, remained at 81% for the first 9 months of the year. ⭕ Total finished steel production decreased by 6.1%, reaching 5.57 million tons. ⭕ Erdemir Group produced 3.75 million tons of hot rolled flats, a decrease of 5.6%, 1.20 million tons of cold rolled flats, a decrease of 1.7%, and 619,000 tons of long products, a decrease of 14.9%. ⭕ 5.60 million tons of finished products were sold, including 617,000 tons of long steel, 1.23 million tons of cold flat steel, and 3.75 million tons of hot flat steel. ⭕ Export sales increased by 6.7% to 1.28 million tons, 22.8% of which destined to export markets. ⭕ Domestic sales decreased by 20.3% to $2.92 billion, while export sales decreased by 3.9% to $920 million. The total value of domestic and international sales decreased by 16.9% to $3.84 billion. ⭕ The Group's EBITDA decreased by 40.4%, from $572 million to $341 million. ⭕ EBITDA margin decreased from 12.42% to 8.9%. ⭕ EBITDA per ton was $68/ton, signalling a recovery from the $39/ton level in Q4 2024. EBITDA per ton was $64/ton in Q3 2025. ⭕ The Group's net profit decreased by 81.5%, from $335 million to $62 million. ⭕ Net profit margin decreased from 7.2% to 1.6%. Net profit margin decreased from 3.1% in Q2 to 1.2% in the Q3. This ratio was 0.8% in Q1 of 2025.

⁉️ #SteelPoll: Will the New Quota System of the EU (lower quota and higher tax for over quota) push EU #steel prices to the US market level, where the market is already being protected by 50% tariff? EU will apply 45% less quota and 50% duty for over the quota from July 2026 Will the increased protectionism in the EU will push the EU HRC prices closer to the US market level, which already is already being protected by 50% duty against all steel imports? #LME Month 2 Prices: North Amnerica #HRC Price: 810 $/t NW Europe #HRC Price: 672 $/t Currently US and EU HRC prices has around 140 $/t difference ⁉️ #SteelPoll: Will the New Quota System of the EU (lower quota and higher tax for over quota) push EU steel prices to the US market level, where the market is already being protected by 50% tariff? You can find the EU and US HRC price chart here: https://lnkd.in/dnrtqBp3

EU will apply 45% less quota and 50% duty for over the quota from July 2026 Will the increased protectionism in the EU will push the EU HRC prices closer to the US market level, which already is already being protected by 50% duty against all steel imports? LME Month 2 Prices: North Amnerica HRC Price: 810 $/t NW Europe HRC Price: 672 $/t Currently US and EU HRC prices has around 140 $/t difference

The EU should moderate its steel protection plan A European Commission proposal for a tight quota and high steel tariffs risks undermining perceptions of the EU as a reliable trading partner. On 7 October, the European Commission proposed a 50% tariff on steel imports into the European Union that exceed a certain quota, while cutting the duty-free quota by 47%. The tariff would replace a ‘steel safeguard’, which was introduced in 2018 and will expire in mid-2026. The safeguard was a response to the diversion of steel into the EU market because of global incapacity and the introduction by the first Trump administration of a 25% steel tariff. Under the safeguard, the EU sets a quota on steel and levies a tariff of 25% for imports that exceed it. The new proposal would thus significantly increase tariffs and cut back the overall level of imports. Safeguard measures under World Trade Organisation rules are allowed in order to remedy serious injury and facilitate adjustment. There may well be a case for avoiding disruption in steel markets once safeguards expire, but it is questionable whether this justifies substantially increasing the level of protection, or whether high tariffs on all steel imports (regardless of carbon content) are consistent with the objective of promoting the sector’s decarbonisation. Furthermore, increased tariffs might undermine the competitiveness of downstream industries or prompt a broader increase in tariff protection in the EU and elsewhere. The steel overcapacity problem continues to exist and the Trump administration has now increased the level of protection for the American steel sector by eliminating quotas and product exclusions, increasing US steel tariffs to 50% and applying increased tariffs to products with significant steel content. Canada and Mexico have already responded, introducing tariffs that to a certain extent mirror the US levies.  To ensure consistency with the WTO, the Commission says the EU can rely on Article XXVIII of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). This allows for an increase in tariffs provided that the balance of mutually advantageous concessions is maintained. Its application is legitimate under the WTO framework, which recognises that as circumstances change, tariff concessions may need to be adapted. However, the application by the EU of high tariffs to all steel imports, and the intention to cut quotas, suggest that compensation claims will be substantial and negotiations difficult. A particularly problematic aspect of the Commission plan is that the new tariffs would apply to countries that have free trade agreements with the EU. GATT Article XXVIII only relates to increases in general tariff rates and provides no justification for departing from duty-elimination commitments under FTAs. While FTAs include bilateral safeguard provisions, these would not justify automatic application of a quota... https://lnkd.in/e-bRWpbF