Barclays Investment Bank

While attending the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Bank Annual Meetings, our Head of Economics Research Christian Keller joined Bloomberg News in Washington D.C. to share his insights on how US-China trade tensions are impacting global trade and emerging market economies. While US-China trade tensions have dominated less attention since April, the reshaping of global supply chains continues. Trade diversification has increased and emerging market economies are grappling with the influx of cheap Chinese goods. And while trade fragmentation and tariffs are adding cost pressures in the US, easing rental inflation and other factors are offsetting price increases. Listen to Christian’s full interview for more insights: https://lnkd.in/gbQAibrT

NEW: The Chancellor almost certainly has a fiscal repair job on her hands at next month’s Budget. But doing the bare minimum at the Autumn Budget risks another fiscal groundhog day next year. There is a strong case for the Chancellor to build more headroom against her fiscal rules. That wouldn’t be costless – but nor is limping from one forecast to the next under constant speculation that policy will be tightened again. Our IFS Green Budget report, funded by Nuffield Foundation and in association with Barclays Investment Bank, launches today with our assessment of the economic challenges and trade-offs facing the Chancellor ahead of the Budget. Released today are chapters from Jack Meaning and Moyeen Islam (Barclays Investment Bank) on the UK economic outlook and gilt markets respectively, and our chapter on the risks and challenges for the public finances. 📗Read our full IFS Green Budget 2025 report here: https://lnkd.in/eagq5Wzw 🖥️ Join our launch event at 9:30am chaired by Helen Miller here: https://lnkd.in/e4s87bvA

A sharp 20% pullback in data center capex could trigger a bear market for the S&P 500 with outsized effects on tech and infrastructure sectors. The bull case? Listen to Brad Rogoff and Venu Krishna debate in a new episode of The Flip Side to find out. Listen now 🔗 http://ms.spr.ly/6043s4gYX

Congratulations to PG Forsta on its sale to Qualtrics for an enterprise value of $6.75 Bn. We are proud to have acted as Lead Financial Advisor to Press Ganey Forsta. 

A big topic at this year’s #BarcHedge Fund Symposium? Creating smarter cash management and margin optimization strategies to generate value. Roark Stahler and Jay Cyr, two of our experts from our Treasury Solutions and Strategic Consulting groups, spotted this opportunity early on and sat down to unpack how treasury strategies can help boost overall returns.   Listen to a sneak peek 👇 Watch the full conversation 👉 https://lnkd.in/ex45V2NF

🚨New episode alert! 🚨 Gold prices have smashed records and are making headlines. But what’s really driving this rally, and what might it be signalling about fiscal credibility and the future role of precious metals in investment portfolios? Hear Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Patrick Coffey break down the forces behind gold’s surge and why this rush is different on episode 2 of the Barclays Brief podcast: 🎧 http://ms.spr.ly/6041sNvgR #BarclaysBrief #Podcast #Gold #MarketTrends #InvestmentInsights

Global economic forces to 👀 for the week of 13 October, according to our Research team. 👇 ◾ Schumpeterian intelligence: Economist Joseph Schumpeter described capitalism as a cycle of creative destruction. Today’s AI boom fits the mould: rapid investment may overshoot, but the resulting buildout lays the foundation for future innovation. ◾ US shutdown stalls data: The government shutdown is set to extend into this week, delaying CPI and retail sales releases. Our analysts expect CPI inflation to have accelerated modestly in September. ◾ Euro area in a good place, but with bad signals: The ECB says the euro area is stable, but industrial contraction and disinflationary forces are building. Political instability in France adds downside risk. ◾ UK’s calm before the data storm: UK Monetary Policy Committee members kept to their established positions last week, ahead of the November BoE policy meeting. That may change soon – our analysts expect disappointing labour market and activity data this week. ◾ Japan’s coalition crunch: Fresh from her win at last week’s Liberal Democrat leadership elections, Sanae Takaichi is struggling to find coalition partners ahead of the Lower House election to select the next prime minister. Consequently, her fiscal stance has softened, and our analysts now expect the next BoJ hike in January. https://lnkd.in/ej3Zv4qH

Our experts are on the way to #EuroFinance2025 in Budapest to meet clients and discuss the pressing topics in #treasurymanagement today. Swipe below to find out what’s top of mind for them 👇 Cc. Simon Ollerenshaw Alishba Ali Helen Kelly

“Corporate leaders today have to stay abreast of geopolitics as surely as they follow rate cuts from the Fed or the latest jobs report. You may not be interested in geopolitics, but I assure you geopolitics is interested in you – and your bottom line.” Admiral James Stavridis’ stark words at our US CEO Dinner, the other night, could not ring truer to me.   Geopolitics is one of the single biggest unknowns in our current market environment and one of the biggest pain points for the business leaders that I meet. The consensus is that while there are many uncertainties that you can plan for – whether it be fiscal or monetary policy, regulatory regime change, or cyclical dynamics – there’s little you can do to plan for sudden changes on the geopolitical stage. The way to prepare is to stay informed, stay nimble and act intentionally.   It was an honor to hear from Admiral James Stavridis and Lt. General H.R. McMaster, two battle-tested leaders, about their strategies for navigating through times of international unrest. Thanks to both of them and to our clients for making this a memorable, thought-provoking experience. 

🌍 Barclays experts share insights on the hot topics at #Sibos2025: 💳 How ISO 20022 is fuelling smarter payments. 🔗 Why the real debate about digital assets is just beginning. 💧 How liquidity is driving DCM issuance and outweighing risks. http://ms.spr.ly/6045sFQeP