Peter Schmitz

Book Review: Critical Minerals and the Future of the U.S. Economy Edited by Dr. Gracelin Baskaran & Dr. Duncan Wood (CSIS, Feb 2025) This new CSIS volume is one of the most comprehensive reviews yet of how the U.S. can secure its critical mineral supply chains. With contributions from 15 experts, it examines: How minerals underpin semiconductors, defence, EVs, and renewables. The impact of recent legislation (IRA, CHIPS, DPA) on supply chain resilience. Systemic challenges like permitting reform, midstream gaps, and minerals diplomacy. The need for a holistic U.S. strategy that combines domestic mining, recycling, responsible sourcing, and international cooperation. It’s a policy-ready toolkit that treats critical minerals not as a niche issue, but as central to U.S. economic security, defence, and competitiveness. If you read nothing else, start with Dr. Baskaran’s introduction — it’s excellent. 👉 My only critique: the book doesn’t sufficiently stress the need to prioritise projects based on economic viability. From 20 years in the junior mining industry, I’ve seen too many “critical” projects that are fundamentally uneconomic. China’s edge lies not just in supply, but in relentlessly focusing on cost competitiveness and walking away from what doesn’t work. My recommendation? The U.S. should build a global project ranking based on practical, geopolitical, and economic factors — and prioritise investment accordingly. Gracelin Baskaran, PhD Meredith Schwartz Duncan Wood Dennis Gibson Jeff Townsend This book is available free via CSIS link in the article. If you enjoy please follow and share :)

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Copper majors are leaving money and future optionality on the table, according to Nicole Adshead-Bell. Developers’ equities haven’t re-rated much, yet the demand case has only strengthened. If you’re BHP, Rio, Freeport, Anglo, Glencore, or Teck, this is the window to buy growth, not just talk about it. Why now? - It’s still cheaper to buy permitted, de-risked pounds than to discover some from scratch. - Balance sheets can absorb it. Cost of capital is a weapon. Use it. - Competition from strategics (autos, grid, E&I) is creeping upstream and it will be reality before you have had the time to think about it. Wait, and your optionality gets priced away. What do you buy (if you're a major)? - Shovel-ready (PFS/DFS complete), tier-1/2 jurisdictions, power + permits in hand or at least in sight. - Scalable porphyry or high-grade IOCG/VMS with >15% after-tax IRR at conservative commodity prices. - Reasonable capex (phased builds, modularity, realistic logistics). What not to buy (if you're a major)? Fantasy NAVs, heroic ramp-ups, and social license on a prayer. If your geochem map is prettier than your drill core, it’s not an asset, it’s hopium. The takeaway is, for; a) Issuers: Use this quiet tape to manufacture bid tension. Lock a clean data room, force NDAs/site visits on a tight clock, and showcase what acquirers actually price (which is permits, power/water, tailings, locked-cycle metallurgy, executable Phase-1 capex with <3-yr payback at a conservative deck), pre-package ECAs/MDBs/streams so a BHP/Rio can plug-and-play and pay you for de-risking instead of haggling. If your core looks good, stop pitching PowerPoint and let the ore do the talking. b) Speculators: Fish where majors feed. PFS/DFS in Tier-1/2 jurisdictions, clean met, power/water in hand, etc. Don't overpay on the current-price NAV, and ask for upside optionality. Build positions before the rumor, sell into the print (or hedge), and skip the moose pasture with heroic logistics. Pretty geochem maps don’t move trucks or cash flow, and they sure won't move a major. In my recent interview with Nicole Adshead-Bell of Cupel Advisory, I asked her what/how she thinks about M&A. Her response can be heard/seen in the clip below. The full talk can be viewed on the Resource Talks YouTube channel, and a written report can be viewed on our website. What am I missing here?

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Santana Minerals Ltd just dropped its updated PFS and it might be a good bit better than the headline numbers suggest. Headline numbers are: After-tax NPV: A$1.5B at today’s gold price. Capex: A$277M. Payback: <1.7 years. Market cap: A$440M (after a 20x move since 2022). All looks great, and the real results may be even better because of conservative assumptions and speed. The PFS is based on A$3,500/oz gold. That’s about US$2,300/oz. If the price holds or grinds higher, the NPV could grow fast. The timeline is another bright spot. First pour could be about 18 months out if the schedule sticks, putting early production in 2027. The jurisdiction helps. If it proceeds, this would move from discovery to production in the same decade. That would be a clear signal New Zealand is open for modern mining again, building on its long mining history. Bottom line, this is a strong study, with conservative inputs, and a clear path to cash flow. If permits, financing, and execution land on this schedule, and if gold stays firm, this could be one of the fastest discovery-to-cash-flow stories in the sector. Big step for everyone at Santana Minerals too.

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