William Tankard

Santana Minerals Ltd just dropped its updated PFS and it might be a good bit better than the headline numbers suggest. Headline numbers are: After-tax NPV: A$1.5B at today’s gold price. Capex: A$277M. Payback: <1.7 years. Market cap: A$440M (after a 20x move since 2022). All looks great, and the real results may be even better because of conservative assumptions and speed. The PFS is based on A$3,500/oz gold. That’s about US$2,300/oz. If the price holds or grinds higher, the NPV could grow fast. The timeline is another bright spot. First pour could be about 18 months out if the schedule sticks, putting early production in 2027. The jurisdiction helps. If it proceeds, this would move from discovery to production in the same decade. That would be a clear signal New Zealand is open for modern mining again, building on its long mining history. Bottom line, this is a strong study, with conservative inputs, and a clear path to cash flow. If permits, financing, and execution land on this schedule, and if gold stays firm, this could be one of the fastest discovery-to-cash-flow stories in the sector. Big step for everyone at Santana Minerals too.

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The DRC’s move to impose a quota on cobalt exports aims to support prices but it’s unlikely to end oversupply in the market in the longer term. My colleague Allan assesses three things that could happen in the market: (1) Prices remain elevated as a result of shortage. (2) Indonesia incrementally fills the gap. (3) Battery makers pivot to other technologies that rely less on cobalt. BloombergNEF clients can read the full analysis here: https://lnkd.in/dudEjeBd

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Big step forward for Power Metallic Mines. We’ve been awarded the Jabal Baudan exploration license in the KSA's Jabal Sayid Belt—a region known for world-class copper, gold, and zinc deposits. Let me explain why this matters: First, this isn’t just another project. Jabal Baudan is over 200 square kilometers, the largest block in the recent KSA licensing round. Strategically positioned 150 km south of Jeddah, this site sits at the heart of the Red Sea’s western mineral corridor. It's known for its VMS (volcanogenic massive sulfide) systems—the same geology hosting the Jabal Sayid Mine. Second, this marks a significant milestone not just for Power Metallic but for international mining. We're now one of the few foreign firms with an exploration license in the KSA, a country that’s been quietly transforming its mining sector as part of its Vision 2030. The KSA's not just opening doors—it’s backing them with capital and infrastructure. The Exploration Enablement Program (EEP), a $182M fund, will directly support our work at Jabal Baudan. This program provides up to $2M per project, de-risking early exploration and accelerating our path to discovery. Third, let’s talk geology. Historical work by BRGM, Riofinex, and USGS identified classic “ironstone” and siliceous volcanic rocks here—the hallmarks of VMS mineralization. Our team will leverage legacy aeromagnetic data, combined with modern exploration techniques, to zero in on high-potential targets. Why the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and why now? Simple: opportunity and timing. Vision 2030 isn’t just about oil diversification. It’s about modernizing every sector, including mining. From world-class infrastructure to policy clarity, the KSA is serious about becoming a major player in global mining. At Power Metallic, we’re not chasing volume. We're building a portfolio of tier-one opportunities. The KSA now joins our flagship Nisk Project in Quebec, where we're expanding one of the rare Ortho-Magmatic systems discovered in the past two decades. (For those unfamiliar, think Voisey’s Bay or Norilsk—world-class polymetallic systems with huge strategic value.) Being awarded the Jabal Baudan license reinforces what I believe is Power Metallic’s core strength: identifying and securing high-value projects in competitive, often overlooked jurisdictions. It’s not just about drilling holes. It’s about building optionality and positioning for the long term. Proud of our team and excited for what’s ahead.

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Copper majors are leaving money and future optionality on the table, according to Nicole Adshead-Bell. Developers’ equities haven’t re-rated much, yet the demand case has only strengthened. If you’re BHP, Rio, Freeport, Anglo, Glencore, or Teck, this is the window to buy growth, not just talk about it. Why now? - It’s still cheaper to buy permitted, de-risked pounds than to discover some from scratch. - Balance sheets can absorb it. Cost of capital is a weapon. Use it. - Competition from strategics (autos, grid, E&I) is creeping upstream and it will be reality before you have had the time to think about it. Wait, and your optionality gets priced away. What do you buy (if you're a major)? - Shovel-ready (PFS/DFS complete), tier-1/2 jurisdictions, power + permits in hand or at least in sight. - Scalable porphyry or high-grade IOCG/VMS with >15% after-tax IRR at conservative commodity prices. - Reasonable capex (phased builds, modularity, realistic logistics). What not to buy (if you're a major)? Fantasy NAVs, heroic ramp-ups, and social license on a prayer. If your geochem map is prettier than your drill core, it’s not an asset, it’s hopium. The takeaway is, for; a) Issuers: Use this quiet tape to manufacture bid tension. Lock a clean data room, force NDAs/site visits on a tight clock, and showcase what acquirers actually price (which is permits, power/water, tailings, locked-cycle metallurgy, executable Phase-1 capex with <3-yr payback at a conservative deck), pre-package ECAs/MDBs/streams so a BHP/Rio can plug-and-play and pay you for de-risking instead of haggling. If your core looks good, stop pitching PowerPoint and let the ore do the talking. b) Speculators: Fish where majors feed. PFS/DFS in Tier-1/2 jurisdictions, clean met, power/water in hand, etc. Don't overpay on the current-price NAV, and ask for upside optionality. Build positions before the rumor, sell into the print (or hedge), and skip the moose pasture with heroic logistics. Pretty geochem maps don’t move trucks or cash flow, and they sure won't move a major. In my recent interview with Nicole Adshead-Bell of Cupel Advisory, I asked her what/how she thinks about M&A. Her response can be heard/seen in the clip below. The full talk can be viewed on the Resource Talks YouTube channel, and a written report can be viewed on our website. What am I missing here?

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Book Review: Critical Minerals and the Future of the U.S. Economy Edited by Dr. Gracelin Baskaran & Dr. Duncan Wood (CSIS, Feb 2025) This new CSIS volume is one of the most comprehensive reviews yet of how the U.S. can secure its critical mineral supply chains. With contributions from 15 experts, it examines: How minerals underpin semiconductors, defence, EVs, and renewables. The impact of recent legislation (IRA, CHIPS, DPA) on supply chain resilience. Systemic challenges like permitting reform, midstream gaps, and minerals diplomacy. The need for a holistic U.S. strategy that combines domestic mining, recycling, responsible sourcing, and international cooperation. It’s a policy-ready toolkit that treats critical minerals not as a niche issue, but as central to U.S. economic security, defence, and competitiveness. If you read nothing else, start with Dr. Baskaran’s introduction — it’s excellent. 👉 My only critique: the book doesn’t sufficiently stress the need to prioritise projects based on economic viability. From 20 years in the junior mining industry, I’ve seen too many “critical” projects that are fundamentally uneconomic. China’s edge lies not just in supply, but in relentlessly focusing on cost competitiveness and walking away from what doesn’t work. My recommendation? The U.S. should build a global project ranking based on practical, geopolitical, and economic factors — and prioritise investment accordingly. Gracelin Baskaran, PhD Meredith Schwartz Duncan Wood Dennis Gibson Jeff Townsend This book is available free via CSIS link in the article. If you enjoy please follow and share :)

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