Fostering a Fourth Democratic Wave

Table of Contents

TASK FORCE FOR FOSTERING A FOURTH DEMOCRATIC WAVE

FOREWORD

INTRODUCTION

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

PART I: FOUNDATIONS

1. CIVIL RESISTANCE MOVEMENTS AND DEMOCRATIZATION

2. DEMOCRATIC WAVES AND ANALYSIS OF CONTEMPORARY TRENDS

PART II: A THREE-PILLAR STRATEGY TO FOSTER A FOURTH DEMOCRATIC WAVE

3. PILLAR I: BROADENING OPTIONS TO ENABLE AND SUPPORT CIVIL RESISTANCE

Pillar I: Policy Recommendations

4. PILLAR II: DEVELOPING A NEW NORMATIVE FRAMEWORK—THE RIGHT TO ASSISTANCE (R2A)

Pillar II: Policy Recommendations

5. PILLAR III: STRENGTHENING DEMOCRATIC SOLIDARITY TO PRESSURE AND CONSTRAIN REPRESSIVE REGIMES

Pillar III: Policy Recommendations

PART III: WEIGHING RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

6. ADDRESSING QUESTIONS ABOUT IMPLEMENTATION

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

TASK FORCE FOR FOSTERING A FOURTH DEMOCRATIC WAVE

The authors would like to thank the members of the task force listed below for their input and contributions to the playbook. The views expressed in this playbook represent those solely of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or endorsement of the members of the task force.

Helena Bjuremalm

Swedish International Development

Cooperation Agency (Sida)

Admiral Dennis Blair (ret.)

University of North Carolina Chapel Hill

Esther Brimmer

Atlantic Council Board of Directors

Kizito Byenkya

Open Society Foundations

Kevin Casas-Zamora

International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance

Larry Diamond

Freeman Spogli Institute and Hoover Institution, Stanford University

Ambassador Paula Dobriansky

Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council

Melanie Greenberg

Humanity United

Maina Kiai

Human Rights Watch

Leopoldo López

World Liberty Congress

Kristin Lord

International Research & Exchanges Board (IREX)

Ivan Marovic

International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC)

Derek Mitchell

(Task force co-chair) National Democratic Institute (NDI)

Jonas Parello-Plesner

Alliance of Democracies Foundation

Lisbeth Pilegaard

(Task force co-chair) European Endowment for Democracy (EED) Danish Institute for Parties and Democracy (DIPD)

Doug Rutzen

International Center for Not-for-Profit Law (ICNL)

Nicole Bibbins Sedaca

Freedom House

Bryan Sims

Humanity United

Anthony Smith

Westminster Foundation for Democracy

Barbara Smith

The Carter Center

Daniel Twining

(Task force co-chair) International Republican Institute (IRI)

Damon Wilson

National Endowment for Democracy (NED)

Jianli Yang

Citizen Power Initiatives for China

Foreword

Apowerful autocratic wave is sweeping the globe. Over the last 17 years, no country remains untouched. Moving slowly in its first decade, and now with brazen haste, autocrats clamp down on their civil societies, coordinate strategies with each other, propagate authoritarian governance abroad, and engage in increasingly sharp attacks against democracies.

This represents an urgent national and international security threat. Any viable strategy to respond will require action on multiple fronts, including strengthening democratic resilience, exerting top-down and bottom-up pressure on autocratic regimes, and fostering coordination by a range of actors.

Within such a strategy, certain options hold great potential, and this Playbook expands on one of them. It focuses on how democracies can better support and enable nonviolent civil resistance movements fighting for rights, freedom, and justice–as well as impose costs on their autocratic adversaries. In doing so, it builds on an established body of research about the power of these movements, their vital role in advancing democracy and reversing authoritarianism, and best practices in working with them.

The authors concurrently recognize that engaging with movements can be complex. Civil resistance movements emerge and are driven by indigenous energy, and efforts to support them are not without risks. However, the Playbook offers guidance that can mitigate concerns, laying out a wide range of options for consideration, alongside principles and a framework to inform their use.

While we may not subscribe to every recommendation or conclusion contained herein, we believe this Playbook advances a critical line of inquiry. Policymakers in democracies should seriously reckon with its implications for how we meet the authoritarian threat and catalyze democratic resurgence.

Derek Mitchell

President, National Democratic Institute (NDI)

Lisbeth Pilegaard

Member of the Board and Chair of the Executive Committee,

European Endowment for Democracy (EED);

Executive Director,

Danish Institute for Parties and Democracy (DIPD)

Daniel Twining

President,

International Republican Institute (IRI)

Damon Wilson

President and CEO,

National Endowment for Democracy (NED)

Introduction

In retrospect, all revolutions seem inevitable. Beforehand, all revolutions seem impossible.

—Ambassador Michael McFaul

The security of the United States, democratic allies, and humanity’s future depends significantly on the state of democracy worldwide.

Yet over the past seventeen years, authoritarianism has risen globally, while democracy shows alarming decline. Dictatorial regimes in China, Russia, Iran, Venezuela and many other countries have become more repressive. Meanwhile, democracies in all parts of the world have backslid, with some regressing completely into authoritarianism.

This playbook focuses on a key factor that can help reverse both of these trends. Popular civil resistance movements—using tactics such as strikes, boycotts, protests, and many other tactics of noncooperation—are historically one of the most powerful drivers of democracy worldwide.¹ They can play a central role in transforming authoritarian regimes and countering democratic backsliding. We offer recommendations for how the United States and democratic allies can adeptly support and enable these movements.

The stakes in this contest over global governance could not be higher. A more authoritarian world is a world dangerous for democracies. As autocrats support each other, abuse their own populations, and undermine democratic states, they also perpetrate and create conditions for violent conflict, atrocities, humanitarian crises, the growth of violent nonstate actors, subversion of multilateral institutions, and transnational corruption. These produce massive human suffering, and further exacerbate internal weaknesses of democratic governments, thereby creating a positive feedback loop that contributes greatly to the present-day autocratic wave.

Yet this threat can be countered. Three previous global democratic waves have emerged from democratic troughs. Developing a strategy to catalyze a fourth wave begins with a clear-eyed look at the challenges we currently face. Externally, democracies confront an increasingly existential conflict waged against them, with authoritarian governments using democratic openness to enable them to spread corruption, undermine government institutions, influence economic decision-making, and manipulate the information environment. Simultaneously, many democracies are experiencing legitimacy crises due to long-standing failure to deliver adequately for their constituents. This core weakness has made them more vulnerable to populism, polarization, disruptive information technologies, external authoritarian attacks, and internal demagogues who now use a well-trod path to weaken democratic governance from the inside out. Past denial about the potency of these threats enabled them to grow. Turning the tide now requires urgency, clear vision, strategy, collective action, discipline, and innovative tactics. Democracies must unify, strengthen their alliances, and go on offense because the future depends on it.

Any strategy to counter authoritarianism will entail action on multiple fronts. By articulating in this playbook how to better support and create an enabling environment for pro-democracy civil resistance movements, we focus on one of the greatest foreign policy opportunities available today—engaging the power potential of populations worldwide who want to protect and advance human rights and democratic rule. Our allies are found not only in fellow governments and registered civil society organizations, but also among billions of people who live daily under either weakening democracies or the abuse of dictatorship.

How This Playbook Is Organized

Bottom-up pressure by movements, complemented by sustained and coordinated action among democracies to support these movements and constrain autocratic regimes, can lead to democratic resurgence. To help make a fourth democratic wave a reality, this playbook outlines three pillars of an actionable, evidence-based plan, as well as policy recommendations for each. It proceeds as follows:

PART I: FOUNDATIONS

1. Civil Resistance Movements and Democratization

The dynamics of civil resistance movements are a basis for our approach. A groundbreaking body of research finds the powerful role that these movements play in driving democratic transitions against authoritarian rulers. An emerging body of research also finds their importance in strengthening democratic resilience against backsliding.

2. Democratic Waves and Analysis of Contemporary Trends

Democracy historically advances and retreats in waves that can span the globe. Following a vast expansion of freedom during the third democratic wave (1974-2006), the world has now entered a prolonged period of autocratization.² We highlight lessons from past waves, apply them to current global trends, and address implications for strategy moving forward.

PART II: A THREE-PILLAR STRATEGY TO FOSTER A FOURTH DEMOCRATIC WAVE

3. Pillar I: Broadening Options to Enable and Support Civil Resistance Movements

Strengthening support for movements holds great promise, but also requires willingness to make needed changes and new investments.

First, democracy support must be recognized as a key national interest, weighted accordingly in policy decisions, and influence a wide range of government activities. Concurrent with this, the definition of democracy itself must be more tightly bound to the presence of human rights. Such a shift in US foreign policy, backed up with action, will strengthen an enabling environment for movements.

Second, investment in new options, capacities, and modalities must be made to support pro-democracy civil resistance movements. To this end, we identify a wide range of specific ways to engage with these movements, in different stages of movement growth, in different contexts, and by different actors (both governmental and nongovernmental).

4. Pillar II: Developing a New Normative Framework—the Right of Assistance

Collective actions by democratic governments, willing multilateral institutions, and international nongovernmental organizations (including advocacy and philanthropy) are key to reversing the authoritarian tide. Developing a shared framework—which we call the right to assistance (R2A)—can enable greater international participation and collaboration in such efforts.

Populations and civil society organizations in all countries have the right to request and receive certain forms of assistance, and external actors have the right to respond accordingly. Grounded in this recognition, R2A would (re)legitimize a range of forms of external support to nonviolent pro-democracy movements, foster expedient coordination among governments, and provide guidance to evaluate which movements may receive support, what forms of support are permissible, and related questions.

5. Pillar III: Strengthening Democratic Solidarity to Pressure and Constrain Repressive Regimes

A third pillar of strategy involves building solidarity and capacity among democracies to leverage behavior change in authoritarian regimes, increase the costs of their repression, and foment divisions among those regimes’ supporters. To this end, we identify actions for coordinated pressure by leading democracies, provide a movement-centered context for their consideration and use, and advance additional options for implementation through existing entities such as the Group of Seven (G7), or possible new democratic coalitions.

PART III: WEIGHING RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

6. Addressing Questions About Implementation

The arguments and some of the recommendations in this playbook advocate for a reconsideration—or scaling up—of certain policies and activities related to supporting pro-democracy movements. We conclude by addressing several concerns that may be raised in discussions about this course of action.

Executive Summary

A slogan is written on a street as a protest after the coup in Yangon, Myanmar February 21, 2021. Picture taken with iPhone panoramic mode. REUTERS/Stringer

This playbook is based on the following premises:

• The global rise of authoritarianism is a national and international security threat. As autocrats support each other, abuse their own populations, and undermine democratic states, they are creating a world fundamentally hostile to democracy. Therefore, countering authoritarianism and supporting democracy are key national interests, and demand powerful strategies, innovative tactics, and long-term resolve.

• Established research finds that civil resistance movements are one of the most powerful drivers of democratic change over the last century. This means that bottom-up pressure is fundamental to countering authoritarianism and supporting democracy, and top-down efforts to advance these goals should seek greater alignment with movements.

• Civil resistance movements are driven by thousands or millions of people choosing to exercise their human rights and demand political change. They have the most at stake in the fight for human rights and democracy in their countries, and when they choose to rise up, democratic external actors must be prepared to draw on greater capacities and coordination to support them.

• Authoritarian regimes deeply fear civil resistance movements, and have, over the past two decades, put sustained effort into countering them, by harnessing new technologies and coordinating among themselves. Accordingly, movement success rates have declined significantly since 2010.

• External support for movements, if appropriately tailored, can improve their success rates. Movement support can be complex, but research and experience offer insights and best practices for assistance that can apply at different stages of movement growth.

• Common concerns about movement support include the risk of inadvertently harming movements, or contributing to political instability. These risks are navigable, and at times, inaction can contribute significantly to them. Averting potential harm to movements involves adoption of principles that ground support in listening and responding to the expressed needs of grassroots actors. Mitigating risks of instability involve incentivizing and supporting the use of nonviolent strategies, so that when populations choose to rise up, their movements are more likely to produce stable and democratic outcomes.

• External support can be enhanced and will be seen as more legitimate if it is grounded in a broadly accepted norm of a right to assistance—that is, people have a right to request and receive assistance when they are engaged in efforts to foster democracy and protect human rights. Democracies should take steps to articulate and advance such a norm.

• Complementing bottom-up pressure of movements, democracies have a range of coercive pressures that they can exercise on autocratic regimes to significantly deter their repression and enhance the political space for these movements to succeed. Such democratic efforts will be stronger if they are taken multilaterally. In addition, a more systematic, tiered approach—in which external responses to autocratic regimes are linked directly to their level of repressive activity against movements—is likely to have a stronger deterrent effect on these regimes.

Building from these premises, we outline three pillars of an actionable, evidence-based plan:

I. Broadening options to enable and support civil resistance movements.

II. Developing a new normative framework: the right to assistance (R2A).

III. Strengthening democratic solidarity to pressure and constrain repressive regimes.

Pillar I: Broadening