Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

🔵 After two decades of depoliticizing the U.S.-India relationship, the Trump administration’s hostile rhetoric threatens to bring it all crashing down. Evan A. Feigenbaum explores the faltering U.S.-India relationship and how politicizing the relationship is a slow march towards catastrophe in a new piece for Carnegie’s Emissary. Read more in this week’s edition of Carnegie in Focus.  

🔵 Threat politics – or persuasion through fear – has a storied and bipartisan history in the American political system. Used to rally support for both the reconstruction of Europe post-World War II and the Global War on Terror, threat politics can be used to unify disparate political groups. However, it can also lead to democratic backsliding and authoritarianism. Carnegie’s Brett Rosenberg explores the history of threat politics in the United States and showcases its use in two key issues facing the country today – the rise of China and climate change. Learn more in this week’s edition of Carnegie in Focus.  

The Indo-Pacific is a top U.S. security priority. Ely Ratner says it’s time to formalize cooperation through a multilateral defense pact. But is that in the best interest of America and its allies? Carnegie American Statecraft Program's Christopher Chivvis sits down with Ratner to discuss on the latest Pivotal States: https://lnkd.in/efaarFgS

As AI technology grows more powerful, there’s a clear need for evidence-based AI governance policy that evolves with it. But what exactly does that look like? And how can AI policy facilitate evidence generation?    Carnegie’s President Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar, Scott S., and co-authors outlined their vision for Science Magazine: https://lnkd.in/eDPXSyYN 

Why exactly have the Trump administration’s new tariffs put the U.S.-India relationship at risk? Evan A. Feigenbaum explains ⬇️

💡 ICYMI: Carnegie’s Dara Massicot testified last week at the Helsinki Commission on how the U.S. can help Ukraine strengthen its air defenses.    🔴 Watch the full briefing – including Dara’s testimony – here: https://lnkd.in/exjFEfqa     📸 Photo credits to Helsinki Commission/House Creative Services. 

New Carnegie Endowment for International Peace paper from Caroline Mallory, Annabel Richter + me: "Does 'One Nation, One Election' Make Sense for India?" We analyze the government’s legislative proposal for holding simultaneous elections in India, currently being reviewed by a joint parliamentary committee. Our main takeaway: "The appeal of aligning India’s staggered election calendar is obvious, but there are less disruptive, less dramatic solutions to the underlying problems the government wishes to solve" https://lnkd.in/eQCBZTsX

🔵 Nearly eight months after the fall of the Assad regime, the fate of Syria’s Alawite minority is unclear. Will the new transitional government follow through with its goal of building an inclusive society, or will historic grievances fuel conflict? Adam Fefer unpacks these questions and more in a new paper for Carnegie. Learn more in this week’s edition of Carnegie in Focus.  

In the The New York Times, Stephen Wertheim writes that Trump is a "thoroughly situational man in a deeply structural bind." To avoid unnecessary wars, the United States will need to remake its role in global affairs: 👉 https://lnkd.in/dyUF7Rrh

📣 Event: Threat Politics: Promise and Peril    There is no policy change without politics and no politics without persuasion. Rational arguments abound, but motivating change often requires tapping into what moves people, what makes them feel.  U.S. policymakers have a long bipartisan tradition of turning to fear to spur action, choosing to invoke threats—and sometimes inflate them — to influence the public, Congress, and foreign partners and adversaries.      Why do politicians choose to emphasize or exaggerate threats? What benefits can they derive from such tactics and what costs do they incur? What forms of threat politics can we expect in an era of record polarization and how might they be used in efforts to address some of the greatest challenges facing the United States, from strategic competition with China to the climate crisis?      Please join Carnegie American Statecraft Program for the virtual launch of Brett Rosenberg’s new paper, "The Promise and Peril of Threat Politics." Christopher Chivvis will moderate a conversation with Brett, Dominic Tierney, Leonardo Martinez-Diaz, Rachel Myrick, and Ryan Hass.      📅 July 29, 1pm EDT, live online. RSVP: https://lnkd.in/euYnMXSZ