Crux

We’re thrilled to welcome Ted Lee to Crux! Ted joins us from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. He’ll be part of our Tax Investor Coverage team as a Principal. Here’s what Ted had to say about joining Crux: "I joined Crux because the team is reimagining how clean energy projects get financed — one of the most important levers to accelerate the energy transition. I’m excited to bring my tax policy expertise together with Crux’s innovative platform to help scale solutions for investors and developers across the clean energy industry." Welcome to Crux, Ted — we’re so happy to have you!

New Crux record — we closed a lucky 13 transactions in just five days! This would not have been possible without the groundwork our team does every day to build the best platform and provide fantastic experience to market participants.

Following policy changes this summer, reductions in tax liability weighed heavily on buyer demand for tax credits in the third quarter. We estimate that corporate tax liabilities are set to decline by 20–30% this year due to the impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill. In our mid-year market intelligence survey, 73% of buyers said that policy has influenced their 2025 tax liabilities, and 60% said that it has influenced the amount of tax credits they intend to purchase. We forecast that quarterly deal volume will reach a low point in Q3, declining from Q1 and Q2, before starting to recover in Q4. That said, the composition of the buyside may be different in the last quarter of the year. Bigger, mainstay buyers could stay on the sidelines for 2025. With fewer buyers potentially in the market, the market could see deeper discounts to capture the marginal tax credit buyer. For more: https://lnkd.in/g_qFNfaG

Tax credit insurance (n.): Tool designed to protect buyers from financial loss if the Internal Revenue Service challenges a tax credit such that the tax credit is ultimately reduced or eliminated; typically procured and paid for by the tax credit seller. Tax credit insurance has emerged as a key tool to mitigate risk in transferable tax credit transactions, but few standards have emerged regarding coverage. To increase transparency, we put together a glossary of tax credit insurance terms to help market participants better understand and negotiate insurance policies with confidence. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gz8p4Y38

We're celebrating a big milestone: 100 clean energy finance transactions closed on our platform! These first 100 transactions — across transferable tax credits, debt, and tax equity — have taught us a lot. Each one serves as a proof point that efficient, liquid markets for clean energy finance are achievable. They've shown us the way forward and are shaping how we build for the next 100 transactions — and beyond. Check out more of what we've learned from our first 100 transactions: https://lnkd.in/dz6gEUHC

As we’ve written about previously, pricing on investment tax credits (ITCs) diverged sharply in the first half of the year based on the quality of the seller. Pricing for production tax credits (PTCs) didn’t necessarily reflect the same trend. In 1H2025, we saw PTCs continue to trade near the top of the pricing range, with low variance based on seller quality. Spot 2025 PTCs averaged about $0.949 per dollar of tax credit, essentially flat compared to 2024. Deals ranged between $0.905 and $0.970. Premiums for Investment-grade sellers remained modest compared to ITCs, typically no more than $0.013 for smaller transactions and close to $0.000 for the largest (compared to $0.030 for ITCs). Download our mid-year market intelligence report for more on pricing trends: https://lnkd.in/gtA9BBii

Tax credit insurance has emerged as an important tool to manage risks in transferable tax credit transactions. What has *not* emerged are standards, alignment, or clarity on what tax credit insurance policies include. Our latest whitepaper — validated by insurance and legal partners including Alliant Insurance Services, CAC Specialty, Marsh, and Winthrop & Weinstine, P.A. — changes that. Leveraging Crux's transaction dataset and finalized insurance policies, the whitepaper covers: - How tax credit insurance works. - What insurance does and does not cover. - An annotated sample policy to help market participants negotiate insurance terms with confidence. Download the whitepaper: https://lnkd.in/esmxrqZq

Welcome to the newest member of our Engineering team, Julian Hinsch! Julian is no stranger to the energy space — he joins us from David Energy, where he worked on residential and small commercial energy. We're thrilled to have his talent and experience as a software engineer. "I wanted to work somewhere where my skills could have a direct, measurable impact on climate solutions," Julian said. "And I was super impressed by Crux's all-star engineering team!" We're still hiring across a variety of roles. Check out our open positions: https://lnkd.in/eeRg8hmr

The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill this summer provided some certainty to the tax credit market — for instance, tax credit transferability was preserved — but raised questions about corporate tax liabilities — and therefore, appetite for tax credit purchases. We talked to leading accounting firms, including EY and KPMG, to understand how changes to cash flow and tax liability have reshaped demand patterns for tax credits. Our key takeaway: We expect that demand slowed in Q3 2025 but that it should start to recover toward the end of the year. Read more on our blog: https://lnkd.in/g_qFNfaG

The first half of 2025 saw interesting pricing trends emerge in the transferable tax credit market. Pricing on investment tax credits (ITCs) diverged significantly based on the quality of the seller. For 2025 credits, the average ITC from an investment-grade (IG) sponsor transacted at $0.94 and up to $0.96 per dollar of credit — as good or better than what we saw in 2024. For non-IG sellers, however, pricing averaged $0.91, down $0.015 from the average 2024 price level. Even when controlling for variables such as deal size, technology, and credit vintage, our pricing models assign a $0.03 premium to listings from IG-rated sellers. The data indicates that buyers prefer to transact with larger, higher-quality counterparties whose balance sheets could fully stand behind their tax credit transactions. Download the report for more on pricing trends: https://lnkd.in/gtA9BBii