Controversial Take: Most longevity businesses won’t have longevity themselves.
The longevity market raised $8.5B across 331 deals in 2024, and the market is projected to reach $8T by 2030.
The capital story sounds impressive, but funding alone doesn’t decide winners.
Dozens of venture-backed companies that raised large sums of money have or are already shutting down, like Forward. The past few years have already shown us where the model is heading.
I am personally long on complex care ecosystems.
Diagnostics, by themselves, aren’t sticky.
VCs keep betting on diagnostics platforms, but that play has limits. Tests are easy to reverse engineer → prices are already racing to zero.
Consumers consistently say, “Now what!? I know what is wrong with me, but the healthcare system is broken and still cannot fix me.”
Everyone from Whoop, Oura, Function, and Hone are selling it as an entry point into their core offerings.
Ecosystems are the moat.
The most defensible models are where diagnostics flow into ongoing care management: protocols, coaching, complex interventions, and insurance integration. That’s where retention lives.
Diagnostics help you come in the door, but care keeps you.
The Takeaway:
The next wave of winners won’t be the loudest fundraisers, they’ll be the few who build full care ecosystems. Everyone else gets swallowed.
Which businesses do you think will endure the longest in longevity?