Institute for the Study of War

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19, 2025: Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly reiterated his demand that Ukraine cede all of Donetsk Oblast as a condition for ending the war, and suggested that Russia would be willing to “surrender parts” of occupied southern Ukraine. Ceding Donetsk Oblast to Russia would set conditions for Russia to renew its aggression against Ukraine from more advantageous positions at a time of its choosing. Read the full update: https://lnkd.in/eCswpm-W Russian officials and pro-Kremlin sources are attempting to portray limited Russian offensive operations in the Kherson direction as an ongoing offensive to recapture Kherson City — efforts that are incompatible with Putin’s claimed readiness to make territorial concessions in southern Ukraine. ISW has yet to observe any indicators that Russian forces are preparing for or have launched a renewed significant offensive operation against west bank Kherson Oblast.

NEW: The Kremlin reiterated its commitment to Russia’s war demands that amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation in response to US President Donald Trump’s October 17 proposal for peace in Ukraine. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18, 2025: https://lnkd.in/eH262jgf Other Key Takeaways: Ukraine’s October 2025 strikes against an oil terminal in occupied Feodosia, Crimea, appear to have significantly degraded the terminal, and it is unclear when or if Russia will be able to repair it. Russian state media reported that the majority of Russian drivers expect further increases in gasoline prices as Ukraine continues its long-range strike campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure. , Ukraine and Russia agreed to a localized ceasefire in western Zaporizhia Oblast to repair the remaining power line to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) amid Russian preparations to transfer the ZNPP to the Russian power grid. Russian forces advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

NEW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US President Donald Trump met at the White House on October 17 and discussed ongoing US support for Ukraine and efforts to the war Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 17, 2025: https://ow.ly/VBxY50Xes4c Other Key Takeaways: The Kremlin continues to employ a dual-handed rhetorical strategy, leveraging economic proposals and veiled military threats in an effort to simultaneously pursue normalizing US-Russian relations and deterring US support for Ukraine. The Kremlin is reducing its financial incentives used to recruit volunteer soldiers, likely as part of the Kremlin’s efforts to restructure force generation efforts and centralize control over Russian recruits in an effort to sustain its protracted war in Ukraine. Russia’s short-range and long-range drone strike campaigns continue to disproportionately impact civilians in Ukraine. Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid and support Ukraine’s growing defense industry. Ukrainian forces advanced near Velykomykhailivka and in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces advanced near Lyman and Siversk.

NEW: The Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) reported that Iranian activity around Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC)’s underground facilities indicates that Iran is not attempting to retrieve centrifuges or uranium stocks. ISIS assessed that Iran may be trying to establish secure access to ENTC tunnels and reinforce tunnel entrances against future strikes. Read the October 17, 2025, Iran Update: https://lnkd.in/eK-nURcp, Other Key Takeaways: Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, likely primarily to discuss sanctions evasion and mitigation efforts. This is Larijani’s first visit to Russia since the UN Security Council reimposed snapback sanctions on Iran on September 27. Iran relies heavily upon Russia as a key partner to mitigate the impact of international sanctions. Turkey is attempting to secure an agreement with the Syrian government that would allow Turkish forces to target Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fighters 30 kilometers inside Syria and possibly set conditions for future military operations targeting the SDF. Unspecified Turkish officials told Western media that Turkey and Syria have discussed allowing Turkey to target Kurdish fighters up to 30 kilometers in Syrian territory. Turkey may leverage planned weapons shipments in order to secure this agreement with the Syrian government. Additional details about the recent political assassination of Sunni Sovereignty Alliance candidate and Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al Mashhadani indicate that Iranian-backed Iraqi fighters conducted the attack. Iraqi media reported that Mashhadani was “in a dispute” with an unspecified group that had attempted to seize land in Tarmiyah. Mashhadani continuously advocated for the removal of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias from Tarmiyah, which these groups would have perceived as a threat to their dominance north of Baghdad.

NEW: US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone on October 16. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 16, 2025: https://lnkd.in/egsGDN3v Other Key Takeaways: Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov attempted to obfuscate Russia’s deliberate attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure in his statement on the October 16 Trump-Putin call. Russia is intentionally muddying the information space with false flag claims and information operations in an attempt to generate cover for overt and covert attacks against Europe in the past several years, including the recent Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace. Russian forces are reportedly using North Korean forces operating in Russia in ways that will allow North Korean forces to take battlefield lessons learned back to North Korea. Russian forces are reportedly adapting their long-range drone and missile strike tactics targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in an attempt to disrupt the Ukrainian power system on a large scale. Ukraine’s European partners announced new military assistance for Ukraine at the October 15 Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein Format) meeting. Russian forces advanced near Velykomykhailivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.

NEW: Iranian-backed Iraqi fighters likely assassinated Iraqi Sunni Sovereignty Alliance candidate and Baghdad Provincial Council member Safaa al Mashhadani on October 14 with an explosive device in al Dhubat neighborhood, Tarmiyah district, Iraq. Read the October 16, 2025, Iran Update: https://lnkd.in/ebiJgYsy Other Key Takeaways: The Houthis confirmed on October 16 that Israeli airstrikes killed Houthi Chief of General Staff Mohammad Abd al Karim al Ghamari. Ghamari is the most senior Houthi official who has been killed since 2004, according to a Yemeni analyst. The Houthis appointed former Houthi 5th Military Region commander Major General Yousuf Hassan al Madani to replace Ghamari. Iranian Supreme Leader Adviser to the Supreme Defense Council Ali Shamkhani’s recent remarks on Iran’s missile doctrine and nuclear posture highlight an ongoing internal debate about the regime’s military strategies.

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Iran Update, October 15, 2025: Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al Shara’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 15 indicates that the Syrian government will likely pursue a pragmatic and multi-faceted relationship with Russia. Read the full update: https://lnkd.in/eGevAerE Other Key Takeaways: Syrian Transitional President Ahmed al Shara’s meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on October 15 indicates that the Syrian government will likely pursue a pragmatic and multi-faceted relationship with Russia. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to receive Iranian oil exports at PRC port terminals despite five rounds of US sanctions that have targeted PRC port terminals and oil refineries for receiving illicit Iranian crude oil. Iraq’s state-owned Rafidain Bank closed its office within the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) directorate on October 15, likely in reaction to recent US sanctions.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15, 2025: The Kremlin remains committed to its rhetorical effort to dissuade the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine amidst critical policy debates. Read the full update: https://lnkd.in/esDGHY6P Other Key Takeaways: The Trump administration continues to voice support for additional military support for Ukraine ahead of the October 17 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Kremlin continues to advance its messaging strategy designed to separate the United States from Ukraine and Europe to undermine NATO cohesion and support for Ukraine. Dutch officials recently observed unidentified drones operating near a NATO military exercise in Poland that may have disrupted military-grade communication systems, marking the latest incident in a trend of drone incursions across Europe. Ukraine’s European partners announced new military assistance to Ukraine amid the October 15 Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein Format) meeting. European officials report that UK sanctions and NATO joint military operations are inhibiting Russia’s illicit shadow fleet. Russian forces advanced in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast and near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka.