Integrating futures thinking and scenario planning

- Navigating the complexities, uncertainty, and disruptions in the era of AI requires that you become adept at futures thinking. Futures thinking is not about predicting the future. It's about anticipating trends, identifying signals and risks, and envisioning potential scenarios, all aiming to prepare for various futures and increase resilience. Global management consulting firms like McKinsey, PWC, Accenture, WEF, and Gartner frequently provide insights on scenario planning to help leaders make better decisions, plan for uncertainties and unexpected events, and reduce the impact of shocks and disruptions. The challenge is that many leaders may need to gain experience with this approach. Future thinking and scenario planning is a complex process, but Gartner's guide to scenario planning for functional leaders provides a good baseline model that you can follow. To make it relatable, I'll walk you through the model, as it would've looked like a year ago as it relates to how generative AI launched and transformed the business environment. The first step in the model is to clearly define an issue that the organization anticipates facing in the future that requires a strategic focus. One issue could be the rapid evolution of AI and its impact on a company's products and services. Next, identify the key driving forces in the external environment that could affect the issue of focus, like regulatory changes, shifts in consumer preferences, or technological advancements. In the context of the example, one driving force could be the launch of generative AI platforms like ChatGPT, and its effect on how AI is used to transform the business environment. Creating and prioritizing scenarios is next. Now, with the same driving force in mind, you can develop a range of scenarios your organization might face. You'll need to look at both risks and opportunities. As you build out scenarios, you must prioritize them based on likelihood and impact. So for example, one scenario might involve the explosion of GPT models that could allow the organization to develop and scale new products faster and better. In contrast, another scenario might involve the organization's inability to leverage gen AI due to data, privacy, and regulatory implications that could damage the organization's reputation. The next step is adjusting strategy and goals for each scenario. This means considering what would need to change in the organization's current plan to address or capitalize on the scenario. For example, if a new AI breakthrough like generative AI is deemed likely, the company might shift investments to align with this possibility. The next step is to document detailed action plans for the prioritized scenarios. The plan should outline the organization's steps if the scenario unfolds. Continuing with the AI example, one action plan might involve partnering with consulting firms and research institutions to gather insights and ramp up learning to stay at the forefront of gen AI developments. The last step is to monitor the scenarios. This requires a monitoring system to watch for signs that a particular scenario is becoming more or less likely, so that the organization can proactively adjust strategies. In the AI example, this could involve setting up a dedicated team, like an internal AI center of excellence to track gen AI advancements, trends, and regulatory implications. Now that you understand how futures thinking and scenario planning are used in a strategic organizational context, you are better equipped to apply this process to career planning with your employees. Next, we'll look at how this model can be strategically applied to career planning to help employees envision and prepare for future possibilities.