S&P 500 returns 11% per year despite 14% average drawdown

View profile for Peter Mallouk

President & CEO at Creative Planning

The S&P 500 has returned an average of 11% per year since 1950 and has done so despite an average intra-year drawdown of 14%, and often drawdowns that are much worse. The lesson? Volatility doesn’t equal a permanent financial loss unless you sell.

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I applaud the “Rip Van Winkle” buy & hold approach to investing. Sadly, a study by Dalbar found that the average retail investor earned just 2.6% annually, due to emotional decision-making. However, many investors such as those saving for a child’s college education or their own retirement, or undergoing setbacks like job-loss or divorce, also underestimate the possibility of becoming forced sellers in down markets if they don’t have a balanced portfolio. https://www.quantifiedstrategies.com/how-likely-is-it-that-retail-investors-underperform-the-market/#:~:text=Final%20Thoughts-,The%20Numbers%20Don't%20Lie,gains%20on%20a%20$100%2C000%20investment.

. . . 1987 “This time it’s different” 2001 “This time it’s different” 2008 “This time it’s different” 2011 “This time it’s different” 2020 “This time it’s different” 2022 “This time it’s different” . . .

The index is DESIGNED to outperform. Companies that underperform are replaced by companies that outperform. The index today looks nothing like the companies in 1950.

Brent Johnson, MBA Theorum AI

Ex: Deloitte, Compaq Computer, Merrill Lynch. World-class AI Research, AI mobilization for small & medium companies, w/ revenues of $25M to $250M. AI Program Strategy Design/Audit Readiness. See thru AI hype.

1w

But volatility kills retirement accounts, people taking distributions from their money. You cannot say risk and volatility do not equate for retirees. I think you are full of something.

Joshua May, MBA

Finance Specialist with a background in insurance claims and sales

1w

Exactly why I stay vested in the S&P.

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Joe Olivo, CFP®

💡 Retirement Clarity for professionals 50+ | Income • Taxes • Peace of Mind

1w

Peter Mallouk Such a clear reminder staying invested through volatility is where the real long-term gains come from.

Just the general idea of keeping your money in the market, depends on what makes up your portfolio. Are you in IRA’s where you have almost complete autonomy to trade the markets up or down or a typical 401k which has very limited instruments. If you actively manage your portfolio,set it and forget (don’t sell) is not ideal, whether you are in 401k’s or IRA’s.

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Peter Mallouk what are your thoughts on Ray Dalio's economic outlook as it pertains to investments during what he describes as changing world order?

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Mike LeGassick 🧠 Author and Behavioural Investment Coach

The unvarnished truth around financial planning, guiding you towards an independent and dignified retirement | Voted 4.9 out of 5 on VouchedFor by my clients | 30 years’ plus experience | “Life is not a rehearsal” 🎯

1w

Turning a paper loss turn into a material loss for the long term, plan driven globally diversified investor is a purely human achievement.

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Great chart. It perfectly illustrates the case for staying invested and reframes volatility as a feature, not a bug. By layering in strategies like dollar-cost averaging and tax-loss harvesting, that volatility can be used to a distinct advantage for long-term, after-tax performance!

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