Episode 1 Ventures leads $4M round for AI forecasting startup Mantic

We’re pleased to share that Episode 1 Ventures has led the $4M pre-seed round for Mantic alongside DRW and a host of world-class angels from the likes of DeepMind and Anthropic! Toby Shevlane and Ben Day are building an AI system for large-scale forecasting across multiple domains including geopolitics, economics and tech. Forecasting requires deep research and reasoning capabilities, and historically models have tended to underperform top human forecasters. Mantic thinks like a human forecaster but with digital speed and scale, shining in data-poor or fast-moving domains. With a founding team from the likes of Google DeepMind, Citadel, University of Oxford and University of Cambridge, Mantic has already won the Q1 2025 Metaculus AI Benchmark Tournament setting a new record on 348 backtested forecasting questions. At Episode 1, we see AI-powered forecasting as an increasingly important capability for both business and consumer decision-making in complex and fast-changing environments. We are super excited to be working with the team as they continue to develop their world-class approach! More details here: mantic.com/launch