The U.S. tariff regime has entered a new phase: exemptions, tax credits, and bloc negotiations are changing the rules of global trade. In a recent article, our Investment Strategy Team breaks down the most important developments and what they mean for companies navigating this evolving environment.

Global trade is more unpredictable than ever – but opportunity is alive. US tariffs in April sent shockwaves across markets. Global trade growth slowed, costs are rising, and uncertainty looms. Yet, our latest ACCA report, The Future of Global Trade, shows businesses are adapting – shifting suppliers, investing strategically, and using AI to unlock efficiency. Despite disruption, optimism endures: 28% of organisations plan to significantly expand global trade in the next 3–5 years, and half see technology as the top opportunity. The lesson? Risk and opportunity go hand in hand. Finance functions that anticipate change, diversify, and innovate won’t just survive – they’ll thrive. ACCA continues to advocate for open, stable trade – because certainty and cooperation are the foundation of sustainable growth. Full insights: https://lnkd.in/eqrZNbqY #GlobalTrade #FinanceLeadership #BusinessResilience #ACCA

I was really pleased to read the House of Commons Business & Trade Committee's final report into the US Economic Prosperity Deal to which I submitted evidence on behalf of the Financial Times. https://lnkd.in/eY_a6kaq The Committee Chair, Members, and staff are doing a remarkable job to hold the government to account at an extremely busy time!! The report picks up on a few points we raised in our evidence around AI opportunities and risks, including our concerns that creating new exceptions to UK copyright could "severely devalue the UK’s £126 billion creative sector and “benefit US tech companies at the expense of UK investors in IP”. The Committee also note our concerns about the UK government's reliance on US foundation models "to process confidential policy documents across the UK civil service is a missed opportunity to procure from UK AI companies.” The Committee concludes that any "future digital trade provisions negotiated under the Economic Prosperity Deal should strike a careful balance: promoting AI adoption and cross-border collaboration to strengthen the Western technological alliance, while safeguarding intellectual property, ensuring fair taxation, and enabling the development of sovereign UK AI capabilities." They also picked up on our perspective that the "structural imbalance whereby large global tech firms, who are direct competitors to UK-based creative exporters including media and publishing organisations, are paying significantly lower tax rates than UK businesses, particularly if they are serving content or news that has been developed by UK journalists and creators. This is creating an uneven playing field.” The Competition and Markets Authority is engaged in ongoing work to try and level the aforementioned playing field. We hope that they are given the room, resources and independence to get on with that vital work which will benefit thousands of UK businesses, and put choice - and pounds - back in the hands of UK citizens. The Committee recommends that "future commitments in the potential Economic Prosperity Deal must balance opportunities for growth in digital trade, AI, and services with strong protections for UK standards, tax sovereignty, and critical domestic industries." As the Committee notes, the whole final deal should be exposed to full Parliamentary scrutiny.

Last week’s U.S. jobs report marked a shift in investor sentiment, reinforcing expectations for a potential Fed rate cut as early as September. While some industries remain resilient, consumer spending and employment are showing signs of strain. Rising tariff tensions, especially following a federal court ruling against most of President Trump’s global tariffs, add further uncertainty to the trade outlook. ▶️ Check out our full market update: https://lnkd.in/e3yw7psh #MarketUpdate #EconomicOutlook

Tariffs can impact more than just trade—they can influence your investment strategy. Learn how to navigate market shifts and protect your portfolio. Read today's blog to learn more https://lnkd.in/gmqWJyFn

The Return of Industrial Policy: What It Means for Global Trade Finance After decades of globalization-driven liberalization, governments are re-embracing industrial policy to secure critical industries, jobs, and supply chains. For trade finance, this shift has profound implications: 1. Industrial policy is driving subsidies and incentives in energy, semiconductors, and green tech. 2. Exporters face uneven playing fields due to protectionism and strategic tariffs. 3. Financing risks are rising as state-backed competition reshapes global trade flows. 4. Credit assessments must now factor in government policies and industrial priorities. 5. ECAs and DFIs are adjusting mandates to align with national security and strategic sectors. 6. Supply chains are being redrawn—friend-shoring and near-shoring create new financing corridors. 7. SMEs face hurdles as large corporates benefit disproportionately from subsidies. 8. Currency and geopolitical volatility increase demand for risk-mitigation tools. 9. Innovative trade finance products are emerging to support green and strategic sectors. 10. The long-term outlook: adaptive financing is essential as industrial policy redefines trade rules. #TradeFinance #IndustrialPolicy #GlobalTrade #SSKInsights

The EU is not expected to meet its goal, of supporting trade in the least-developed countries with 25 percent of its spending by 2030, according to European auditors.

While uncertainty has defined the first half of 2025, we believe companies are adjusting to the new era of tariffs, trade and tax reform—and are refocusing on their long-term business plans. We think the network effects of greater capital expenditure will be vast, both for the companies investing in their businesses and those downstream who generate more business as a result. https://lnkd.in/ez_8f8Dk

Markets remain largely unmoved despite a rash of narratives competing for attention - Geo politics, Fed independence and much debated state of US economy : Inflation & unemployment., besides usual headlines on Tariffs and newly acquired concerns on elevated Fiscal spending and Govt debt . Drone incursion into Polish airspace - Polish say drones 'downed' - first time a NATO country directly engaged Russian assets in its airspace since Ukraine war started in 2022. Another front in Middle east - Israel’s decision to strike Hamas leaders inside Doha & Qatar's warning to retaliate . Court rules Lisa Cook can remain a Fed governor-Judge wrote the public interest in Federal Reserve 's independence weighs in favor of Cook's reinstatement- resilience of Institutional independence reassuring. Bench mark revisions make the case of slowdown in job growth, but things aren't falling apart yet. It's more of an equilibrium rather than a grim picture.Reasons could be AI adoption (firms comfortable with fewer employees) & Immigration tailwind (undocumented migrants work more than one job -double or triple counted earlier). Small business sentiment rose to 100.8, third consecutive month above historical average of 98- its significant - often under appreciated as small business contributes about 43.5% of US GDP. FT article says Trump tells EU to slam China & India with 100% tariffs - US is prepared to 'mirror' any tariff EU imposes. Trepidation ahead of PPI today as July PPI soared 0.9%, led by services- markets to watch today's $ 39 bio of 10yr auction. French fiscal worries passed off as usual- but the concern is that even the Greek debt crisis was a slow car crash that went on quite a bit before it blew up. Developing Poland story to keep the USD selling at bay. Weak domestic demand & oversupply see CPI falling 0.4 %- PPI fell by 2.9 % marking 35th consecutive month of contraction.But fall narrowed from 3.6% - “anti-involution” campaign may be starting to take hold ? UK 6 year gilt auction for £4b today should sail through but there are concerns as each gilt auction is a risk event especially around third anniversary of Truss moment -RIC says consumer spending up 3.1% y/y. As expected 1.3588 held the upside . Aug Reuters Tankan manufacturers’ index rose to +13 from +9 , underpinned by solid domestic consumption.Reports hawkish BoJ in Q4 taken in stride- 146.50 148.50 till new LDP leader gets elected on Oct 4. Round trip in 87.95 - 88.35 continues with 88.15 mid point becoming the median. Precision suggests another instance of usual strangulation.

While uncertainty has defined the first half of 2025, we believe companies are adjusting to the new era of tariffs, trade and tax reform—and are refocusing on their long-term business plans. We think the network effects of greater capital expenditure will be vast, both for the companies investing in their businesses and those downstream who generate more business as a result. https://lnkd.in/esYCRbCr