Institute for the Study of War’s Post

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21, 2025: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated that Russia is unwilling to agree to an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine that does not result in Ukraine’s complete capitulation. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 21, 2025: https://lnkd.in/eiCiet9z Other Key Takeaways: Ukraine and its European allies signaled their support for U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal for an immediate ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Recent Russian war crimes in Pokrovsk highlight the humanitarian cost of Russian advances in more populated areas. Russia's long-range strike campaign continues to target critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of Winter 2025-2026. Ukrainian Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi was appointed as the commander of the newly formed Joint Forces Task Force. Polish and Romanian authorities connected Russian military intelligence to attempted acts of sabotage aimed at undermining European Union (EU) support to Ukraine. Russian forces advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Pokrovsk.

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Christopher J. Wajnikonis P.E. (TX), CEng (U.K.)

President, Engineering Consultant at CJW Aero-Hydrodynamics

2d

As things stand, we’re reacting chaotically to ruZZian insults. The degradation of our military for 3+ decades is exacerbating the situation. Warfare has changed radically in the past 4 years. Our production, reserves, personnel, & training must catch up. Fortunately, Europe has a fresh army & a modern Air Force, while Putin is overextended & his reserves are depleted. We’ve Ukraine on our side. Ukraine has the numbers we lack. Europe and Ukraine complement each other. Russia is currently weak, but it’s trying to maintain the initiative and weaken us psychologically through hybrid means. We mustn’t allow this happen. We must regain the initiative with proactive means ACCORDING TO OUR TIMETABLE, prevent full-scale WW3 escalation & thereby keep ruZZia in check. The ONLY WAY this will happen is for ruZZia to LOOSE BIG in Ukraine. We MUST now: - economically strangle ruZZia by ending all trade with it; - close the Danish Straits, the North Sea, the Bosphorus/Dardanelles & the Panama Canal to ruZZia’s shadow fleet; - punish ruZZia BIG for GPS jamming, sabotage of our (subsea) infrastructure & NATO Airspace violations; - enforce a no-fly zone (NFZ) over Ukraine, its perimeter, & the Baltic States; - catch up in all other areas.

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Christopher J. Wajnikonis P.E. (TX), CEng (U.K.)

President, Engineering Consultant at CJW Aero-Hydrodynamics

2d

No Country feels ever ready for a defensive war. The tendency is to postpone it INDEFINITELY. The ENTIRE Europe is ALREADY a target for Putin’s (salami) slicing technique. ruZZia is overextended. Putin is unable to produce enough weapons to fight Ukraine. Without his new allies he couldn’t have succeeded. 1. Europe can help fight ruZZia now without U.S. help. Israel has shown us how in Iran. 2. How much help could be obtained from South Korea, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, etc.? Putin gets help, we should too! ruZZia won’t be able to get more aid than it receives. Europe can EASILY help Ukraine enough to tip the scales of this war even if there is an escalation elsewhere. European troops are fresh. Current numbers don’t matter. Ukraine has numbers, but she needs MUCH more weapons! What if the current ‘negotiations’ result in: 1. ruZZia subjugating all of Ukraine? 2. Putin getting a few years break to get stronger? - Current European rearmament rate won’t exceed ruZZia’s. - Many new obstacles could arise. THE KEY FACTOR IS ON WHICH SIDE UKRAINE WOULD (be forced to) FIGHT ! Could Europe build enough 4.5 GENERATION FIGHTERS Quickly? Should Europe upgrade some to 5(+) generation & build enough in time?

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M.A. Restrepo

U.S. Navy Veteran | Intelligence & Field Ops | Counterinsurgency | Counterintelligence & Threat Analysis

2d

Сергей вертится как уж на сковородке. Если бы Пригожин закончил то, что начал.  

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