When to start upper funnel investing: A simple formula

View profile for Kevin Goodwin

SVP of Strategy & Growth @ New Engen | Partner, Strategic Advisory | Paid Media, Consumer Insights, Planning & Creative

When is it time to start investing in upper funnel? Outside of using astrology, the stages of the moon and dream tracking...REACH tends to be a strong predictor of when to get started. Here is a simple formula to bookmark: (% YoY Change in Reach) / (% YoY Change in Spend) This formula helps you analyze your spend adjusted YoY reach growth. Add this to your reporting and develop alerts for when this ratio dips into yellow/red territory (see visual below): ⚫ If your reach is consistently* growing as fast or faster than your spend, you are in good shape and can expect continued growth (see: “Healthy” quadrants below). ⚫If your reach is growing, but at a slower clip than spend, this is an early warning sign of stagnating growth. Monitor this closely. (see: Watch Out) ⚫ If your reach is contracting on increased spend, this is a sign you are on the performance plateau and should launch upper funnel ASAP. (see: Performance Plateau). *A note on consistency: one month of bad reach does not demand intervention. Monitor these numbers on a quarterly and half-yearly trend to understand what is noise and what is a trend. This formula and analysis only works when looking at a single channel in isolation, but for most brands a channel like Meta warrants that level of focus. I talk about this and more in part 1 of the Ultimate Meta Upper Funnel Playbook, coming tomorrow via my newsletter: - Why run upper funnel in the first place? - Why run upper funnel on Meta? - When is the right time to get started? - Baby steps for moving up funnel New Engen

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It's surprising that more teams don't use the spend per reach metric. However, going into upper funnel is not the only remedy. Other options could be expanding creative diversity or expanding your product set to reach new audiences. There is also a question I would ask before rushing to a decision - have you changed your targeting strategy to reach a different type of customer? Higher value customers will often cost more to reach, but deliver a higher return.

Good stuff. Where can I see the newsletter?

Harry Forsyth

Partnerships (North America) @ Fospha | Giving Brands the evidence they need for Full Funnel | Our brands beat the market by 30% in 2024 | Better measurement 🤝 better relationships between brands and ad platforms

1mo

As always, delivering a clear, actionable and perhaps most importantly, brilliantly communicated framework for solving a problem almost all brands feel but can’t always properly diagnose Hope you don’t mind if this post makes its way into ad hoc screen shares when I’m trying to explain this myself 😅

David Gross

Co-Founder at Moving Parade

1mo

This is solid.

Ben Bercasio

Sr. Manager, Social Media | Digital Creative

1mo

TOF FTW 🙌🏽

Nikola Djordjevic

Paid Social @ The Pod Company

2w

This is great! Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

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Stamen Petrov

Performance Marketing Specialist at ROImonks

1mo

Hi Kevin Goodwin very insightful again. Do you have a definition of how upper funnel content differentiates from middle & bottom funnel content?

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Muhammad Saqlain Mushtaq

Revolutionizing Ecommerce Logistics | Co-Founder at Eleevate Logistics | Managing the Supply Chains for 100+ Amazon Brands | Ex-Amazon Seller

1mo

Well said, Kevin. Using a clear formula to track reach against spend gives real insight into when to shift focus to upper funnel strategies. It's all about spotting the warning signs before growth stalls.

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Heiman Safeen 📦

🅰️ctionable growth tips | From €3M > €21M ARR profitably in 2 years | Group Growth Officer at Ruokaboksi / Yummy

1mo

Great stuff! Gonna try this out.

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