We’re at an inflection point in CPG. DTC-only is dead. Not because online is irrelevant. But because the math stopped working. The rise of “zombie brands” proves it. These brands are unprofitable, flatlining, and burning investor cash just to stay alive. Most of them? DTC only. Their CAC ballooned. LTV didn’t scale. Margins couldn’t support the paid media treadmill. Now they’re stuck. Here’s what’s really happening: 1️⃣ The Meta arbitrage era is over. 2️⃣ Consumers don’t want to subscribe to your products anymore. 3️⃣ Buyers aren’t impressed by your Shopify screenshots. 4️⃣ And VCs? They’ve moved on to AI or brands with real-world velocity. DTC still matters, but as a channel. Not as the business model. The strongest brands today are channel-agnostic but distribution-strategic. They’re playing to the strengths of each channel. DTC for community, testing, storytelling. Retail for scale, velocity, and operational discipline. Amazon for visibility, ranking, and transactional trust. They’re building margin into the model early. Not betting on future scale to fix broken economics. They’re obsessing over sell-through, not just sell-in. DTC is not the destination. It’s just one channel on the route to true scale. 📷 Solid execution from DTC brand Proper in Target
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which DTC only brands are failing?
DTC only is not dead. DTC only with bad fundamentals, who never got their model right and rely on VC funding, is dead. Similar, not the same.
Completely agree that DTC works best as part of the mix, not the whole model. Trial and sampling are still bottom-funnel power moves.
feel like this has been the case since like 2020
Is there anyone more knowledgeable in this space? Great stuff Martin!
Spot on, Martin Forde! DTC isn’t dead as a channel, but treating it as the whole business model is a fast track to trouble.
Martin Forde I work in perishables and DTC has always been seen as primarily a marketing channel ( because of the refrigeration logistics hurdles) An important channel- but not always profitable.
Very well stated!
Retail Merchandising & Shopper Marketing Execution | Walmart & Sam’s Club | Packaging & Displays | Sales & Marketing | Endurance Athlete | #TheRetailDude
2moIf you want to grow - retail is the place to make it happen - It has to be part of the mix.