©️ When Debt Is Not Just a Number... but a Strategic Decision Take a closer look at the map of global public debt, and you’ll notice a paradox: The countries with the highest debt-to-GDP ratios are not weak or fragile economies. They are the very pillars of the global financial system: ▪️ #UnitedStates 🇺🇸 ▪️ #Japan 🇯🇵 ▪️ #France 🇫🇷 ▪️ #Italy 🇮🇹 ▪️ and others. Now imagine this: What if these nations decided to erase their debt, not because they can’t pay, but because “the system must be preserved”? 🔁 #Switzerland gave us a preview of that logic. In 2023, it voided shareholder rights to save a major bank — behind closed doors, without legal accountability. 🔸 And if debt becomes politically negotiable, what follows? ▪️ Decline in confidence in major currencies ▪️ Inflation triggered by the collapse of debt-based liquidity tools ▪️ Geopolitical strain with large creditors — China, for instance, held $870B in U.S. Treasuries in 2024 This is no longer just a financial question — it’s a strategic one: Where do you build your business in a world where rules are this flexible? 🔅 Why I See #SaudiArabia as the Most Strategic Option People often ask me: “Why do you focus on Saudi Arabia as a business destination?” The answer isn’t sentimental — it’s analytical. And scenarios like debt cancellation are only one trigger that led me to rethink where long-term investments truly belong. Here’s my reasoning: ▪️ Energy dominance: Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter and holds 17% of global reserves. It’s a key stabilizer in any energy shock scenario. ▪️ Real diversification: Non-oil industries now make up over 50% of the non-oil GDP. Petrochemicals from aramco, for instance, are vital for global plastics and manufacturing. ▪️ Low public debt: 30% of GDP vs. 123% in the U.S. and 255% in Japan. ▪️ Public Investment Fund (PIF) strength: #PIF manages $925B+, with 75% invested locally in NEOM, Qiddiya | القدية, and Red Sea Global. ▪️ Demographics & reform: 70% of the population is under 35, and Saudi ranks 30th globally for ease of doing business (The World Bank, 2025). 📌 These aren't growth promises — they’re pillars of long-term economic security. 🔅 Why Industry Is Safer When Built Near Energy ▪️ Industry relies on oil-based inputs like polyethylene and fertilizers — not just electricity. ▪️ Local energy cuts cost and ensures stable, efficient production. ▪️ Zones like Ras Al-Khair reduce industrial costs by up to 15% (McKinsey, 2024). 📌 As predicted, global economic power is clearly shifting. PwC (2025) expects #China, #India, and Saudi Arabia to lead by 2030. China has already become the top trade partner for 120+ countries, overtaking the U.S. in 2024. 🧠 In a world where economic rules can shift overnight, shouldn’t we prioritize environments built on real assets and long-term resilience? #EconomicShift #GlobalDebtCrisis #InvestInSaudi #EmergingMarkets2025 #EnergySecurity
Jan P. Rohde
8mo
That's very true! I have long advocated for keeping debt levels manageable. Germany (my home country) regularly takes a beating at the European Union for trying to stick to low debt levels (rather than stimulating growth by spending more). The Maastricht Treaty - formally known as the Treaty on European Union - was signed back in 1992 and intended to provide stability by limiting countries to 60% debt and 3% deficit. You can stimulate growth by spending more, but this needs to be done carefully and can't be done frequently as it becomes unsustainable. Saudi Arabia has a low debt to GDP ratio of ~30%, a privileged position, but it has run budget deficits (sometimes in double digits) in 9 of the last 10 years. Saudi Arabia was (almost) debt-free 10 years ago. That made little sense when oil prices went down and Vision 2030 came along, as it was better to increase debt rather than e.g. start taxing the working population. Direction of travel is important. At this pace, Saudi would be at US debt levels within three decades. Therefore, budgets need to start breaking even at lower oil prices. This will keep the peg to the USD feasible (which has been very beneficial) and confidence in Saudi's future as a prudent government high!
I’m not an economist or a political analyst — I’m a Saudi businessperson who reads, reflects, and looks for stability, opportunity, and strong, resilient networks. As someone from a mid-tier global power, I see things differently. I'm not influenced by overwhelming economic or military dominance — which can shape perspectives subtly, even without realizing it, especially in places like the U.S. or Europe. Instead, I pay close attention to how major powers react and reshape the global landscape — because those reactions matter for business, too. What I wrote here may have sounded far-fetched 20 years ago, but not today. This isn’t a forecast built on technical models — it’s a reflection shaped by shifting patterns and global signals. Feel free to agree or disagree — thoughtful disagreement is welcome. The real value lies in questioning where we’re heading, not pretending the rules haven’t already changed.
Grégory Repérant
8mo
Dear Sheikh Al Qahtani, Rather than erasing it, what we see at the moment are attempts to term-out national dent. However, the bond market has tampered this with yields for new 20+ year issuances reaching all time highs in the US & Japan. We have come to realize that we are transitioning rapidly into a multi-polar world without any clear dominating country / block, so I fully agree that the Kingdom has a key role to play. This transition is happening on multiple fronts: - a powerful AI-led technology which will re-shape labor markets & the way Science and Research is conducted & distributed globally ; - de-globalization led by the US as it faces debt spiralling out of control ; - energy supply shifts, with at least Europe & other developed economies remaining on a path of de-carbonization (also to increase their resilience & geopolitical independence) ; - defence alliance shifts still in the making, with a de-coupling within the NATO Alliance of its European base + allies on one hand & the US on the other hand. I think it is fair to say that everyone finds it very difficult to predict where these movements will bring us in 5, 10 years time, so for the long-term investor, I still believe that diversification is the best.
It’s fair to question global debt dynamics, but presenting Saudi Arabia as a strategic safe haven overlooks a crucial fact: it is an absolute monarchy, not a democracy. Low debt and energy wealth can’t substitute for transparency, rule of law, and political legitimacy — all essential for sustainable investment. Predictability without accountability is not stability. True resilience requires not just strong economics, but democratic governance.
Dear Sheikh, Certainly, oil will continue to play a dominant role for several more decades, but—as you rightly understood—it won't last forever. In my view, the young generation in Saudi Arabia is kind, educated, curious, and eager for change and greater openness. Why are people still hesitant to invest? First, some projects seem to lack real purpose (take The Line—who really wants to live inside a wall? It may be beautiful and futuristic, but it doesn’t align with the human need for freedom and escape). Second, in recent times, we’ve seen that even in democratic countries, where decisions should be made by groups after careful thought, one person can suddenly change everything based on how they feel that morning. That unpredictability makes it harder to trust—everywhere. Also, freedom of expression should be a guarantee: no one should be criminalized for saying something others may dislike. Unfortunately, this is happening in too many places.
Amit Dev Mehta
8mo
A few years ago your statement would have been laughed at because the three countries you mention Saudi Arabia, China and India were deemed not to have the institutional frameworks, maturity and transparency even though none of them have defaulted on debt. Hence there is a lot of truth in your conclusion that core growth possibilities is a commercial way of evaluating risk, whilst securing oneself just because of contractual obligations carries risk that is either not understood or ignored.
Economics is not as simple Mr. Qahtani sketched .. it drives by socio political and geopolitical moves and strategic calibrations and all such think tanks breathing outside Saudi Arabia and to belt it you need strong educational institutions where research is vital to shift the balance and this is only understood by China till yet so they made their ways to the top 10 universities with 60% of such … until that movement nothing such shall be applicable.. I’m hopeful about Saudi Arabia in longer run to follow suit.
Preventing Preeclampsia with One Test. One Pill. Save 2 Lives | Founder & CEO @ MIRZYME THERAPEUTICS | Senior Advisor to the President, University of Southampton | Founder & past Executive Dean of Aston Medical School
8moI agree with you — strategic investment decisions favouring real assets, transparency, and future-focused growth aren’t just good economics; they’re ethically sound. Debt is no longer just a number — it’s become a lever of influence, often used behind closed doors. That raises deeper questions of justice, trust, and responsibility. The longest verse in the Qur’an (Surah Al-Baqarah, 2:282) is devoted to the ethics of debt. It commands believers to write debts, appoint witnesses, and avoid ambiguity — a powerful call for accountability and fairness, finalised over 1,400 years ago: “O you who believe! When you contract a debt for a fixed term, write it down…” (Qur’an 2:282) This verse isn’t just about contracts — it’s about preserving trust and protecting the vulnerable. Erasing debt without due process undermines the principles that hold markets — and societies — together. That’s why I believe the real opportunity lies in building economies rooted in real assets, energy security, demographic strength, and moral clarity. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 reflects this grounded thinking. In an age of flexible rules, values must be the anchor.