Tobias Block’s Post

I carved out the industry demand for specific reasons. Although we have mandatory targets for hydrogen consuming industry in the RED of 42.5% in 2030 and an established emission trading system (ETS), we see low ambition by member states to implement RED-I targets. Only Netherlands has presented a draft for RED-I. Most members states want to achieve the targets via subsidies for green steel or fertiliser. I'm not convinced here. Lately, we have seen that many projects are on hold e.g. the green transition of the ArcelorMittal plant in Bremen: https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/arcelormittal-steigt-in-deutschland-aus-der-geplanten-stahlproduktion-mit-wasserstoff-aus-118.html

Let's calculate how much electricity would be needed in Germany when all these cars are powered by e-fuels. 390 TWh/0.44= 886 TWh Germany would need at least 886 TWh of green electricity to produce e-fuels that cover the annual consumption of all cars in Germany. https://www.linkedin.com/posts/michael-sura-9a47511bb_efuels-powertox-tesla-activity-7178065119485014016-9Sc2?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAADMwpUwBYTepb0SA_1gB6xWaGabGpjOZYSI

Thank you, very clear paper. Failing ramping-up hydrogen and e-fuels, for the various reasons you explained may have us pouring bio-fuels, indonesian palm-oil, fake used cooking oil etc..., with serious deforestation side effects, into our planes and ships.

I see the next peak of inflated expectations. E-fuels will never work for land transport as they require 10x the amount of renewable energy. Add the cost of all production equipment and the result is a cost per km that no one is willing to pay

Thanks for sharing Tobias Block. I disagree on at least 2 main points: 1) Hydrogen and eFuels are on different implementation pathways. 2) eFuels have not reached the trough of disillusionment yet, because there are still special interest groups and lobbyists out there promoting their widespread use. You know you have reached the trough when they become silent.

Totally agree Tobias. We are currently in the consolidation phase, and the recent FIDs, as well as those expected in the coming months, will give confidence and support for the ramp-up of the market.

Excellent breakdown, Tobias Block. However, the persistent gap between policy ambitions and enforceable mandates is slowing real market traction. Without stricter offtake obligations and harmonized RFNBO certification, many projects will remain stuck in the FID waiting room. The EU must shift from announcing targets to enforcing actionable frameworks that truly accelerate hydrogen and eFuel adoption across sectors. At the same time, energy justice must be at the heart of these strategies. Hydrogen and eFuels should not remain limited to resource-rich countries. They must become accessible pathways for decarbonization in emerging economies as well.

My initial calculations were to calculate the cost of green hydrogen to be competitive with fossil fuels and acceptable to industry. The result was €1.50-2.00 per kilogram of H2 produced. I then analyzed the current electrolysis method and concluded that it would never be below €2.00 per kilogram. Things had to change. I then developed a water splitting method without electrolysis and using only 2 kWh of renewable energy per kilogram of H2. A 20-foot container system that could be placed next to factories and required minimal transport. The all-in production price was lower than €1.50 per kilogram of H2, and fuel cells converted it into electricity at 5 cents per kWh. It turned out to be an improved water splitting method with a crucial innovative addition. Unfortunately, the 'scientists' at the ministry Netherlands and in Brussels didn't believe it was feasible and didn't provide subsidies to test this hydrogen production method. How much further could we have gone without wasting billions on things like the EC's Hydrogen Bank? Delivery price is essential for making H2 successful and accelerating sustainability. In my opinion, this can happen very quickly in the broadest sense. And done before 2030.

La transición del hidrógeno hacia la “Slope of enlightenment” demuestra que, con regulaciones claras y compromisos firmes de los Estados miembros, el mercado puede evolucionar de expectativas infladas a una implementación real y sostenible.