Vesper’s Post

𝗩𝗲𝗴𝗲𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘀𝗽𝗹𝗶𝘁 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝘄𝗼 𝗰𝗮𝗺𝗽𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗤𝟰 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟱. Palm oil is capped by competitive dynamics with soy. Rapeseed starts the season with depleted stocks despite better crops. Coconut and PKO face opposing pressures from postponed mandates. The real question for procurement teams: Which oil categories offer buying opportunities, and which require defensive positioning? 𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝗤𝟰 𝗢𝗶𝗹𝘀 & 𝗙𝗮𝘁𝘀 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻: → Where supply tightness creates negotiation risks → Which seasonal patterns to time purchases around → How biofuel mandates are reshaping availability across categories → What beginning stock levels tell you about price trajectories Free download here: https://lnkd.in/et29VpWb

🔔 Fertilizer Market Flash (Oct 22) 🌐 Global fertiliser dynamics continue to shift this October: 🇨🇳 China’s suspension of fertiliser exports is expected to lift specialty fertiliser prices by 10–15 %. 🇺🇸 In the US market, urea prices eased ~5 % MoM, while DAP and anhydrous ammonia rose 7 % and 6 % respectively. 🇪🇺 Rabobank forecasts that the EU’s upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will raise fertiliser import costs by 10–20 % for ammonia and up to 15 % for urea by 2026. 🌐 Meanwhile, new ammonia capacity investments are gravitating toward low-gas-cost countries such as the U.S., Qatar and Nigeria, while Europe faces structural closures amid high energy prices. These movements signal a tightening global balance and a future where cost, carbon, and capacity decisions will define competitive advantage.   ⬇️ Swipe through / view images for full version ⬇️   #FertilizerMarket #AgriBusiness #Agriculture #Urea #GlobalTrade 

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗻𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗘𝗨𝗗𝗥, 𝗽𝗮𝗹𝗺 𝗼𝗶𝗹 & 𝗹𝗮𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀, 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘆𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗱𝗮𝘆’𝘀 𝘄𝗲𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗿 Here are some key takeaways: 𝗘𝗨𝗗𝗥 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗽𝗼𝗻𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 – 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗜𝘁 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗰𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 The EU Commission plans to delay implementation again. But most large companies will still buy EUDR-compliant palm oil after investing heavily in supply chain changes. Result: More conventional palm oil on the market and lower EUDR premiums. For palm kernel oil, the impact is even bigger. With the current $350–400/mt premium, conventional CPKO could become far more competitive against coconut oil. 𝗣𝗮𝗹𝗺 𝗼𝗶𝗹 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝘁𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘀 Malaysian stocks are shrinking, while Indonesian exports fell ~30% in September amid higher levies and India’s switch to soybean oil. Add to that Indonesia’s uncertain B50 biodiesel rollout, and Q4 volatility is back. 𝗟𝗮𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀 – 𝗦𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲, 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝘄𝗮𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 Coconut and palm kernel oil prices remain high, with better crop output expected by late Q4 or early Q1. Until then, buyers are keeping it hand-to-mouth. 🔗 Watch the full replay for Gehrman’s full breakdown, including sunflower price trends, Ukraine’s rapeseed exports, and US–China soybean dynamics: https://hubs.la/Q03MJgqX0

Quick Take: Argentina's Policy Reshaping Global Markets: Argentina's temporary removal of grain export taxes makes its soybean oil cheaper. This is directly impacting the palm oil industry, as soy oil is a key substitute, leading to lower palm oil prices. The move also affects the international oil market by making soy oil-based biodiesel more cost-competitive, which can influence crude oil demand and pricing.. #Argentina #Commodities #GlobalTrade #Agriculture #PalmOil #Biofuels #MarketAnalysis #Economics

The U.S. has lost overall market share in export markets for corn and soybeans. In a new Economic Bulletin, Francisco Scott and Ayesha Cooray explore how changes in biofuel policies will be critical to help the U.S. absorb supplies and support crop prices: https://bit.ly/42TmtVF

🌍 Geopolitics & Fertilizer Security 🌍 The U.S. is weighing further “secondary tariffs” on countries that continue to buy Russian oil — a move with potential ripple effects across global fertilizer supply chains. Russia is a major exporter of potash and urea, and any retaliation could disrupt global markets. As highlighted by Brazil Potash Corp CEO Matt Simpson, “If Putin decided to wake up and cut off fertilizer supply, it would be catastrophic.” With potash and urea central to food production, analysts warn that any major supply shock would have profound impacts on global agriculture and food security. Why this matters: ✅ Potash is essential for global food production ✅ Russia currently dominates supply, creating vulnerability ✅ Brazil Potash’s Autazes Project offers a secure, local solution for Brazil — the world’s largest potash importer With construction readiness and binding offtake agreements, GRO is positioned to strengthen food security while reducing reliance on unstable supply chains. Read more via Agri-Pulse 👉https://lnkd.in/e5H-8HE9 #Potash #FoodSecurity #CriticalMinerals Chris Naprawa NYSE: #GRO | BVMF: #GROP31

Putting soybean demand in perspective: Although the U.S. finds itself in a precarious position today, it’s worth noting Brazil’s dependence on Chinese demand — now accounting for more than half of its total demand — compared with the U.S., where more than half of soybean demand is domestic. NoBullAg.Substack.com

The soybean pipeline to China is softening but still solid. Total soybean arrivals over the next 30 days are expected to be ~9 Mi t. Compared to a month ago, there are more cargoes coming from Arg. Brz has loaded 94.6 Mi t (78% to China) through Oct 2 — 6.6 Mi t above last year, with shipments to China up 7.2 Mi t YoY. #soybean

As U.S. soybean combines roll across the Corn Belt, traders are navigating a market influenced less by yields and weather and more by global demand shifts, uncertain biofuel policies, and reduced Chinese purchases. Despite a near-record crop and strong crush and meal demand, futures have swung widely this season, reflecting broader economic and trade uncertainties. With soybean oil demand fluctuating and biofuel markets proving unpredictable, growers may see excellent yields but face unclear market conditions for selling their crop. For detailed information; soymag.com #Soybeans #AgricultureMarkets #USDA #Biofuel

In this week’s fertilizer report: 🌱 International Food Price Projections and Trends 🌱 Daily Urea Prices 🌱 CME Urea Futures Curve 🌱 The Phosphate Market is What Worries Us 🌱North American Urea and Phosphate Price Action More at: https://bit.ly/4nQdM6w